Posted on 08/08/2019 7:15:58 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
If there has been one bit of conventional wisdom about 2020 that has most comforted left-of-center analysts like me, it’s that Donald Trump’s job approval ratings seem exceptionally stagnant and too low to support the evident optimism of his conservative media boosters. I made that argument just a few days ago in a piece looking at evidence that Trump’s actual voting appeal may not be much better than those shaky approval ratings.
But now comes the formidable number cruncher Nate Cohn with a challenge to this assumption from a couple of different directions. It will be received by many Times readers as something of a terroristic threat, but it’s important to face it directly.
First up, he calls attention to something most of us have ignored since Trump took office: the president’s personal favorability ratings. Yes, we all know that Trump won despite astonishingly low favorability numbers (an Election Eve ratio of 36/61 according to Gallup). But Cohn notes these numbers now look better for POTUS:
Millions of Americans who did not like the president in 2016 now say they do. Over all, his personal favorability rating has increased by about 10 percentage points among registered voters since Election Day 2016, to 44 percent from 34 percent, according to Upshot estimates.
That is still well under a majority, though not far below the 45.9 percent of the popular vote he won in 2016. But more important, Cohn suggests, a lot of these voters who have a newly favorable view of Trump may not have voted for him last time around:
Republicans with an unfavorable opinion of Mr. Trump were more than twice as likely to stay home on Election Day as those with a favorable view, according to New York Times/Siena surveys of North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania in 2016.
(Excerpt) Read more at nymag.com ...
But he is orange, and bad
It’s Ed’s way of telling his fellow Dems they’re in deep s**t trouble!
Closed-minded people are inevitably taken by surprise by reality. For comfort’s sake, I suggest he stay away from facts, and isolate himself even further from those outside his like-thinking circle.
Scary? Maybe for miscreant alt left wing radical extremists. Smells like winning to me.
Four numbers, Ed: 1984
It'd be pretty impossible not to.
How could Trump win? The author doesn2know a single person who voted for him!
How is an mediacracy to govern the country without those abilities? Oh, the horror!/S
………….not too long ago, one poll of democrats said over 30% were opposed to infantcide! Seems that would kill their chances all by itself and therefore that, arguably at least, Democrats for Trump could put Trump over the top in 2020.
President Trump’s approval ratings a year from the election was better than Odumbo’s a year from the election. According to the Gallup Daily tracking from July 20-Oct. 19, 2011: During this time, Obama’s approval rating ranged narrowly between 38% and 43% for all but a few days of the quarter.
This is the sound of reality hitting the fan!
What the Donkeys fail to take into account is you can’t oppose something with nothing. As soon as they settle on a candidate that candidate’s flaws will be exposed and attacked. Right now they and their propaganda arm the MSM, get to attack Trump all the time with no return fire - or at least very little. That won’t last. They won’t get to just play Offense the whole time.
What I had hoped would is now happening. When Trump started his run for the office the libs made him a joke to use against other GOP candidates. But I knew he was an animal they had never taken on before because he can’t be attacked successfully. He lives his life right out in the open and doesn’t care what is thought of him. Imagine an opponent that you can’t threaten, can’t bribe, and can’t use stupid ways to hurt others to direct him because he doesn’t care. You have no intimidation.
Therefore, you have no way to “control” him. And he does you. And while they strive to harm him, he plays them like a cat with a mouse in between doing what he planned and more. And the unfortunate thing is that he has everyone on the run to include his own party people that don’t have him under control either. And they’re all running scared he can cut them any time he wants. And he can. Trump has nurtured the greatest political scare tactic in our history. And it has worked. It’s called common sense. And the entire federal government is lost with it as it doesn’t follow their playbook, either side. And the public is catching on even further with the idea. And that’s his power.
rwood
“Cohn acknowledges that the odds are pretty good Democrats will nominate a more popular opponent for Trump than Hillary Clinton was in 2016”
I’d like to know who among the Dem candidates is a more popular candidate than Hillary? Bueller? Anyone?
Every time the Left escalates, a whole new slice of the electorate wakes up and realizes that they’ve been cynical slanderers all along.
All of them.
Improved polls are a “terroristic threat.”
No incitement here!
Tens of millions, including those benefitting from the great economy.
More like the MediaCRAZY!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.