Why Virginia Democrats Are Right to Be Nervous

The National Review ^ | October 16, 2017 | Jim Geraghty

[2ndDivisionVet]

On paper, Democrat Ralph Northam holds a small but fairly consistent lead in the polling of Virginia’s gubernatorial race. The most recent survey, from Emerson College, puts Northam ahead of Republican Ed Gillespie, 49 percent to 44 percent (with a margin of error of 5.5 points). But Democrats don’t feel confident at all.

Last week Paul Krugman wrote about the race in a tone of panic: For whatever reason, however, Virginia isn’t getting nearly as much play in national media or, as far as I can tell, among progressive activists, as it deserves. Folks, right now this is where the action is: Virginia is now the most important place on the U.S. political landscape — and what happens there could decide the fate of the nation.

The Washington Post studied its own surveys and concluded, “far fewer Virginia voters are closely following the campaign than at similar stages in the past three gubernatorial elections.” Last week, Sam Stein reported: Democratic operatives working on the race and those closely following it are more openly panicked that complacency has set in. . . . three Democratic sources have told The Daily Beast that Northam’s internal campaign polling has the race within the margin of error, and not at the outer edges of that range.

Democratic anxiety is probably driven by three distinct causes. The first is a hangover from 2016. Last year many Democrats were absolutely certain that Hillary Clinton would win, and many believed she would beat Trump in a landslide. Like a quarterback who endures a brutal blindside hit, the Democrats “hear the footsteps” — they’re on alert for another rude surprise on Election Day. (The disappointing finish for Jon Ossoff in the runoff in the Georgia special House election might even compound this.)

It’s worth noting that not only did Hillary Clinton win Virginia in 2016, this is one of the few states where she performed better than Barack Obama did in 2012. The second cause is concern that Northam might resemble Hillary Clinton in the wrong ways. Like Hillary, Northam was considered the moderate in the party primary, and is a party loyalist asking voters to continue an era of Democratic governance. Neither one is a whirling dervish of raw political charisma. Like Hillary in 2016, Northam is offering voters the status quo with a bit more spending.

But the third cause seems like the best reason to worry. In both the 2013 gubernatorial race featuring Ken Cuccinelli and the 2014 Senate race featuring Gillespie, the Republican candidate dramatically overperformed compared to the final polls. The final RealClearPolitics average in 2013 had Cuccinelli trailing by 6.7 points; he lost by 2.5 points. The 2014 result was even more dramatic; the final RCP average put Democrat Mark Warner ahead by 9.7 points; he won by eight-tenths of a percentage point.

Is this a “shy Tory” effect? Are Virginia Republicans particularly reticent to tell a pollster they’re voting for the GOP candidate? Is the Virginia Republican get-out-the-vote effort worth a few extra percentage points? No one in Virginia politics knows for certain. But it suggests that a small Democratic lead heading into Election Day might not be so reliable.

[HamiltonJay]

We shall see... I believe this is a winnable race... just not convinced Gillespie will get the turnout he’s going to need... I will be happy to be wrong. I am not on the ground in VA, and have no insider information on this race..... I am only drawing conclusions from general macro observations.

This is really a generic R vs generic D race, neither candidate stands out, or offers anything distinct. So what you have is an open seat, with the D trying to hold onto the seat... The current sitting Governor is not that terribly popular, but not hated either... so this really is about as generic a race as you can find.

Given that, and the fact its off year, this would favor higher party out of power turnout in terms of voting percentages. NOVA also does not have a personal checkbook motivation to show up... as in the Presidential race, they were going to show up because if Trump won their personal incomes were at stake... the VA governors race doesn’t affect federal DC spending, so that area will almost certainly have lower turnout.

The question in my mind is, will the Dem turnout decrease enough and will the R turnout improve enough to overcome the delta? My gut says, that given the R’s have run a GOPe candidate, that he can’t rely on the drain the swap, disenfranchised, forgotten man, blue dog democrats, etc that Trump got motivated and to the polls to show up for him... and without them I am not sure he’ll get a 5.5% swing to pull off the win.

Is it possible? Yes, I do think its possible, I just am not personally convinced its the most likely outcome. I do believe he COULD win, this isn’t a race where I feel, there is no way the R could pull an upset, I just don’t think that’s the most likely outcome. I am more than happy to eat crow and be proven wrong, but I think this is a D hold, but by a 1-3% margin.

If the R were a drain the swamp, american first, candidate I would be more than confident and comfortable predicting an R win, but with an GOPe/McConnell/Open Border shill? I think its the less likely outcome. It is possible, and again I am happy to eat crow if I am wrong, and would loved to be proved wrong, but I am hard pressed to see it.

Time will tell.

[loveliberty2]

Thanks!

If elected, then Virginia Republicans (with the emphasis on Republicans) must keep public pressure on them throughout their terms to focus on the principles of Jefferson as they go about their duties.

Below are the words of the Author of our Declaration of Independence and President of the U. S., Thomas Jefferson, in his 1801 Inaugural Address. Jefferson laid out what might be considered to be an appropriate description of the philosophy and role of an American president or Legislator:

(Excerpt, "Our Ageless Constitution," p. xiv, reformatted)
"Let us, then, with courage and confidence pursue our own Federal and Republican principles, our attachment to union and representative government. Kindly separated by nature and a wide ocean from the exterminating havoc of one quarter of the globe; too high-minded to endure the degradations of the others; possessing a chosen country, with room enough for our descendants to the thousandth and thousandth generation;

- entertaining a due sense of our equal right to the use of our own faculties, to the acquisitions of our own industry, to honor and confidence from our fellow-citizens, resulting not from birth, but from our actions and their sense of them;

- enlightened by a benign religion, professed, indeed, and practiced in various forms, yet all of them inculcating honesty, truth, temperance, gratitude, and the love of man;

- acknowledging and adoring an overruling Providence, which by all its dispensations proves that it delights in the happiness of man here and his greater happiness hereafter

—with all these blessings, what more is necessary to make us a happy and a prosperous people?

- Still one thing more, fellow-citizens—a wise and frugal Government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned.

- This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicities.

"About to enter, fellow-citizens, on the exercise of duties which comprehend everything dear and valuable to you,

- it is proper you should understand what I deem the essential principles of our Government, and consequently those which ought to shape its Administration. I will compress them within the narrowest compass they will bear, stating the general principle, but not all its limitations.

- Equal and exact justice to all men, of whatever state or persuasion, religious or political;

- peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none;

- the support of the State governments in all their rights, as the most competent administrations for our domestic concerns and the surest bulwarks against antirepublican tendencies;

- the preservation of the General Government in its whole constitutional vigor, as the sheet anchor of our peace at home and safety abroad;

- a jealous care of the right of election by the people—a mild and safe corrective of abuses which are lopped by the sword of revolution where peaceable remedies are unprovided;

- absolute acquiescence in the decisions of the majority, the vital principle of republics, from which is no appeal but to force, the vital principle and immediate parent of despotism;

- a well disciplined militia, our best reliance in peace and for the first moments of war, till regulars may relieve them;

- the supremacy of the civil over the military authority;

- economy in the public expense, that labor may be lightly burthened;

- the honest payment of our debts and sacred preservation of the public faith;

- encouragement of agriculture, and of commerce as its handmaid;

- the diffusion of information and arraignment of all abuses at the bar of the public reason;

- freedom of religion; freedom of the press, and freedom of person under the protection of the habeas corpus, and trial by juries impartially selected.

These principles form the bright constellation which has gone before us and guided our steps through an age of revolution and reformation. The wisdom of our sages and blood of our heroes have been devoted to their attainment. They should be the creed of our political faith, the text of civic instruction, the touchstone by which to try the services of those we trust; and should we wander from them in moments of error or of alarm, let us hasten to retrace our steps and to regain the road which alone leads to peace, liberty, and safety." - Thomas Jefferson, First Inaugural

[going hot]

Anything that panics Krugman is fine by me.