Posted on 08/02/2017 10:54:54 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
For the last few months, the Trump presidency has presented analysts with a weird puzzle. The news has been chaotic -- Congress has made multiple attempts to pass new health care legislation, stories tied to Russian interference in the election seem to come out daily, various key White House roles have been vacated and filled and the president has made multiple foreign trips. Yet despite this roller coaster of events, his poll numbers have been shockingly stable. Specifically, Trump’s job approval has hovered around the 40 percent mark for over two months, almost never deviating by more than one percentage point.
So why are these numbers so stable when events are anything but? The world of political data has been busy debating this topic, so rather than simply lay out one view and argue for it, I'm going to describe five different views that have popped up. (Note: Some of these ideas were generated simultaneously by multiple people, adopted and edited by others and generally have changed in ways that make them difficult to trace back to one author.) I’ll also explore what each view might predict about the future. In the coming months we'll be able to check what happened against each theory’s predictions and get a better sense of which one, if any, was right.
Theory 1: The GOP Base and Strong Democrats Are Immovable Objects
One way to explain Trump’s stable approval is to simply look at who does and doesn’t approve of him and how strongly they hold those views. The situation is simple: Trump has a high approval rating among the GOP base and low approval ratings among the Democratic base, and unless there are truly exceptional circumstances, neither group will change their mind.....
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The horses approve of the job Trump is doing.
How unneutral this be.
Because the people who voted for him are seeing him keep his promises. These same people voted for him precisely because they correctly recognize the people who are impeding his progress, the GOP-e and the Democrats, are people who induced our vote for Trump in the first place back in November 2016.
I think most people realize that the vast majority of the Trump news from the msm is fake. That news is just tossed in the garbage.
President Trump threw his support Wednesday behind a Senate bill that would cut legal immigration in half and implement a new merit-based system that emphasis English-speaking immigrants who can demonstrate job skills.
So that he does not fit into the pattern that they are used to.
Result...Dims, MSM, GOPe, special interests and lobbyists going crazy (that's splody heads all over for those in Rio Linda).
That’s a lot of what Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, talks about.
Yes, it is shockingly stable in spite of “mounting evidence of Russian collusion” and he “dictates” what Donald Trump Jr writes. Have you noticed how the media pack all put their teeth into the word “dictate” in the last two days. Trump the “dictator” does not “suggest” to his son. I wonder what the Trump bashing word of the day will be tomorrow. BTW, the local media in my area is more biased against Trump than the national media is, and more people watch local news than national news.
This is the basis of leftist, DC-centric politics. Everything is mutable, everything can be manipulated, the people are sheep to be herded by the media narrative.
Indeed, many people are sheep. BUT - trust in government and civil institutions, like the media, is steadily being destroyed by those who seek to manipulate it. Many Americans have simply “checked out” and ignore them completely.
Theory 1: The “scandals” hung on Trump are trivial, transparent, and fabricated, so they lack credibility.
Theory 2: We don’t care. Nobody cares. It’s just a circle jerk for a handful of petulant elitists.
Theory 3: Trump’s brash, coarse manner is actually appealing after decades of unctuous but ineffective establishment politicians. We’re willing to overlook his “transgressions” if he keeps challenging the socialist status quo.
Theory 4: All of the above.
DEFINITELY 4!
Could it be that the survey over samples Dims....?.....and where have we heard that before...?
Some FReepers still seem to believe in polls. But no poll asks people “Do you no longer think Trump is Hitler?”
They always ask the wrong question, then use biased methods to fake the results. Always.
Whenney ya gonna stable that sense of humor lad?
What that 40% number indicates is that ratio of the electorate isn't shifting based on President Trump's actions except the independent support is waning.
One maverick factor in this is confidence on the poll numbers. Not many believe the numbers based on their own personal perspective and recent poll performance history.
They always ask the wrong question, then use biased methods to fake the results. Always
The key question during the primaries was...not to ask "who you would vote for"
But:
"Who do you think your neighbor would vote for"
The Trump team got it right
and the rest is history.
Since no-one at Real Clear Politics has ever met any actual Trump voters they are stuck with “theories” on that alien behavior. :-)
Polls are awesome. Hillary won in a landslide.
I see the Q poll has another d plus 10 poll that has President Trump at 33 percent. All lies, plus President Trump is having a good week.
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