United States presidential election, 2016

Voter demographic data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. The voter survey is based on questionnaires completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day including 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters.

Pollsters must make assumptions about turnout.

If their assumptions are wrong their polls will be wrong.

Easy peasy!

They polled D+8 to D+10, actual was D+4.

So, if the pollsters had used D+4, they would have been very close. Listen, 2008 it was D+7. 2012 it was D+6. These were outliers, fueled by an African American nominee (who would naturally create AA turnout). Anyone who thought that Hillary would generate that wasn't paying attention. She wasn't black, she wasn't charismatic, and she had royally pissed-off a huge portion of her left wing base by her treatment of Bernie Sanders. We all recognized that around these parts. Odd that the professionals couldn't see it.

Having worked directly with Census Block, legally-affirmed demographic data in federal district drawing lawsuits - almost always on the winning side - I will say this much for the authors of this Wikipedia entry:

"Sexual Orientation?" That's a bit like holding a jellyfish on your fork. Judges will want to see Men and Women, only.

In other words, there is much that is useful in this open-sourced article, particularly presentation of largely yet-to-be certified election returns against political subdivision, states and counties, for example. But the voter category cross-tabs are based on educated, perhaps informed, conjecture.

But these data can't possibly be truly accurate, and won't possibly be for several months. Even then, some of the racial categories (ignoring "Sexual Orientation") are not conventional. And I say that as someone who knows and dislikes the conventions defined by the Census Bureau.

So the Electoral College will report its vote to Congress next month with disputed results and on-going recounts in many places, which is another point in its favor.

"The Roads Must Roll..."

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