Election Update: Watch New Hampshire For Signs Of A Trump Comeback

Five Thirty Eight ^ | October 14, 2016 | Nate Silver

[2ndDivisionVet]

Donald Trump hasn’t had a lot of good polling news lately. Very few swing-state polls have shown him with a lead since the first presidential debate, and those few leads have mostly been in states like Ohio and Iowa that aren’t part of Hillary Clinton’s path of least resistance to 270 electoral votes. To find good polls for Trump in states that could be part of Clinton’s firewall, you have to cherry-pick a bit — and you have to accept the fact that “good” in this context means trailing by a little instead of by a lot.

With that stipulated, some of Trump’s better numbers have come in New Hampshire. A MassINC poll released on Friday morning showed Trump trailing by only 3 percentage points there. And a Suffolk University poll last week — conducted before the release of the 2005 “Access Hollywood” videotape — had him down only 2 points in New Hampshire.

As I warned, that required a bit of cherry-picking. Several other polls of New Hampshire have been released since the first debate, and they have Clinton ahead by margins ranging from 6 to 11 percentage points — a safer margin than the MassINC or Suffolk polls show. New Hampshire is also one of the few swing states where Trump has spent more on advertising than Clinton — a deficit that the Clinton campaign could counteract if it feels as if the state is in jeopardy.

But as far as our model is concerned, the outcome in New Hampshire is more uncertain than in the other Clinton firewall states. Let me explain what I mean by that....

[trebb]

We all know that most of those who conduct the polls are in the bag for Hillary and they have demonstrated a willingness to abandon all pretense at being journalism entities.

Trump's support is at a visceral level like I haven't seen since Reagan - he shocked the pundits with a landslide because there was no way to gauge how many he actually connected with.

GO TRUMP/PENCE!!!

[Seattle Conservative]

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