Posted on 10/03/2016 6:41:27 PM PDT by LS
Here are some numbers from Montgomery County, OH, a key OH county won by Democrats for the past four elections, if only narrowly. First some caveats: this is today, and things can change. They did in 2014, when the Rs built up a big lead, then lost it for the rest of the election. But more important, Ohio law says that anyone who does not vote in primary is tossed into the unaffiliated/independent classification. 2012
R 13,356
D 12,630
I 9,622
2016
R 17,465
D 14,156
I 4,528
This is in large part why some of usme in particularwere not reading the 2012 early votes correctly: the Is were not truly independents but were instead lazy Democrats. They just hadn't voted in the primary. In the general election, rather than going 55-45 to Romney as most polls predicted would happen with independents, they went 66-33 for Obama.
A colleague with access to precinct maps and intimate knowledge of specific households in many cases was able to normalize these 2016 numbers in terms of whether the household voted R or D. Notice the near 50% fall off in independents from 2012 to 2016! When assigned by how the household previously voted, we are left with a maximum of 4,528 Is. Assuming even one-third of those are still actually Democrats, the Rs have a sizeable lead at this point.
Both Ds and Rs gainedbut Rs gained about 4,100 while Ds only gained 2,500. Most of these came from the I category.
What are the implications? Assuming that the normalization was accurate (and I have no reason to believe it was not), former independents" have moved sharply to Rs, gaining not quite double that of the Ds. A reasonable assumption is that after normalization, interest in Rs is up significantly. If this is symbolic of what is happening all across Ohioand dont forget that in the bluest of counties, Cuyahoga (Cleveland) the Democrats lost 114,592 since 2012 while Rs gained 27,060. Even allowing that a large portion of the lost Democrats ended up in the Independent category, they still ended up losing a ton of voters. But weve been over that.
What this shows is that rather than breaking 2:1 D, the independent vote is going about 60/40 R. And that might be why there are rumors Cankles is actually abandoning OH.
BTW: When it was announced that ROTTEN left Ohio, she didn’t...she still has people there, they want the Trump Supporters to think it’s safe, it isn’t...pretend Trump is loosing (losing) to make sure he wins!!!
As close as I live to PA, I don’t understand why they vote for RATs - especially with The threat Hillary is to 2A.
Pennsylvania. I want Pennsylvania.
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