Posted on 10/03/2016 6:41:27 PM PDT by LS
Here are some numbers from Montgomery County, OH, a key OH county won by Democrats for the past four elections, if only narrowly. First some caveats: this is today, and things can change. They did in 2014, when the Rs built up a big lead, then lost it for the rest of the election. But more important, Ohio law says that anyone who does not vote in primary is tossed into the “unaffiliated/independent” classification. 2012
R 13,356
D 12,630
I 9,622
2016
R 17,465
D 14,156
I 4,528
This is in large part why some of us—me in particular—were not reading the 2012 early votes correctly: the “Is” were not truly independents but were instead lazy Democrats. They just hadn't voted in the primary. In the general election, rather than going 55-45 to Romney as most polls predicted would happen with independents, they went 66-33 for Obama.
A colleague with access to precinct maps and intimate knowledge of specific households in many cases was able to “normalize” these 2016 numbers in terms of whether the household voted R or D. Notice the near 50% fall off in independents from 2012 to 2016! When “assigned” by how the household previously voted, we are left with a maximum of 4,528 “Is”. Assuming even one-third of those are still actually Democrats, the Rs have a sizeable lead at this point.
Both Ds and Rs gained—but Rs gained about 4,100 while Ds only gained 2,500. Most of these came from the “I” category.
What are the implications? Assuming that the “normalization” was accurate (and I have no reason to believe it was not), former “independents" have moved sharply to Rs, gaining not quite double that of the Ds. A reasonable assumption is that after “normalization,” interest in Rs is up significantly. If this is symbolic of what is happening all across Ohio—and don’t forget that in the bluest of counties, Cuyahoga (Cleveland) the Democrats lost 114,592 since 2012 while Rs gained 27,060. Even allowing that a large portion of the “lost” Democrats ended up in the “Independent” category, they still ended up losing a ton of voters. But we’ve been over that.
What this shows is that rather than “breaking” 2:1 D, the independent vote is going about 60/40 R. And that might be why there are rumors Cankles is actually abandoning OH.
Good info. Thanks for posting. I am constantly having to talk my conservative friends and family off the edge of the cliff when it comes to Trump and the things that he says and the polls that they hear. This is good info to give them so as to keep them focused on the end goal here which is to elect Trump and to get everybody out to vote. Very encouraging.
Thanks. And please pass along our thanks to your anonymous collaborators.
Good info!! What about FL? Have any inside? Or even CO? I just can’t believe trump is down big in fl and co!
Thanks for the explanation. Great work, LS.
He’s not. He’s up good in FL, up in CO but tight.
The sad truth is... she can afford to lose Ohio, as long as she gets both Florida and Penn.
One problem with many of these people is that they think Trump should run his campaign the way they want him to. He has his own strategy.
Worked well enough to win a record number of primary voters.
bookmark
K if he wins oh and fl what other must win state does he needs?
Yep, I’m with you on that.
Only ONE of the following: CO, VA, WI, MI, PA, ME, NH
She isn’t close in FL.
Don’t you read Ravi’s FL absentee request threads? She’s getting killed, already down 147,000 requests. Already, 1033 MILLION Republicans have requested absentee ballots, more than 25% of all Rs in the state.
That’s some kind of enthusiasm.
Oh, and by the way, the absentee requests are at a ratio of 43%R 37%D
How many polls from FL have you seen with that split? Zero.
Trump has to go for the gun owners and how Hillary will take their guns away.
Since strategy and a winning one.
Wow ..all those states look iffy, no wonder the smug one can take time out and rest in her basement days on end...
It’s like living in some sort of split alternate reality. Our Dem clients only read/listen to *approved* media talking points and they are all sighing with relief that HRC is up *BIG* and going to “win in a landslide”. We have to keep quiet, because it’s business. Very frustrating.
I hope we get to see their heads explode by Nov. 8. They are very smug.
I’m in the same boat with some family members and good friends..they all have this little extra skip in their steps!! And smug as hell!!
The media will tell us that Ohioans are casting unprecedented numbers of write in votes for Kasich.
For my own sanity and SAFETY, i argue for Jill Stein to the several women that are diehard for Hillary. At least i have them thinking about it; they won’t vote for Trump because ‘he’s so mean’ and G.Johnson is an idiot pothead.
BUT, i love the Trump ad featuring Hillary’s shrill “Why aren’t I ahead 50 points?” and ALMOST got caught laughing too loud. Faked out showing some panda video on youtube. Not going to gloat or jinx anything, but i am a NeverHillary.
The MSM, including Fox sadly, is starting to have their desired impact. I know of quite a few people that hate Hillary and were going to vote for Trump to vote against her- myself included. While I have gotten on board the Trump Train, I know a lot that are saying “why bother” “she is going to win after that last debate” etc...That is the perception anyway. A recent poll had her up only 6 in NJ. 6!!!!!!! And Christie is a drag on that number. Anecdotally, I see virtually no bumper stickers or lawn signs for her and my kid’s peers who thought Obama was a rock star now think Trump is a rock star. However, I know NJ is lost, but I see no ads or ground game. Is he working Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado hard?
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