Posted on 09/16/2016 11:23:09 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Think your one vote doesn't really matter? According to experts, it will — a lot.
Hey Pennsylvania voters: you're important. Like, really important.
It's no secret Pennsylvania is an extremely-coveted battleground state for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump this fall. But some experts are now predicting the entire 2016 presidential election could essentially boil down to how we vote here in the Keystone State.
Is that enough pressure for you? (By the way, the deadline to register to vote is Oct. 11.)
In a piece published Friday by the New York Times, expert David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who operates PredictWise, says his research shows Pennsylvania looks to be the most likely state to tip the election.
Here's how Rothschild explains it, according to the New York Times:
"Every day, I run 100,000 simulations of the election. I use the probability of each state going for Clinton or Trump, then I mix that with a correlation matrix that defines the relationships between the states. And every day since late July, Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election. Currently, there are just 6 percent of scenarios where Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and just 3 percent of scenarios where Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election."
Rothschild says he'll be looking closely at polling in Pennsylvania over the coming weeks as an indicator of the election outcome. In recent weeks, Trump has gained some ground on Clinton in other swing states, such as Flordia and Ohio. The Democrat is holding onto a lead in Pennsylvania, however.
The RealClearPolitics.com polling average in Pennsylvania shows Clinton with a six-point lead over her opponent. The most recent poll, conducted by Quinnipiac between Aug. 29 and Sept. 7, shows Clinton with a five-point lead.
However, that's down from a double-digit lead she held over Trump in a Franklin and Marshall College poll taken between July 29 and Aug. 1.
For weeks, pundits and political experts have been keeping a watchful eye on Pennsylvania, specifically the Philadelphia suburbs. In a report last month, the Times called the Philadelphia suburbs, a "bellwether" in this year's election.
That piece included input from several Bucks County voters, including one who said Trump is "talking about the issues everyone is pussyfooting around."
The candidates and surrogates have been pervasive in Pennsylvania, with both campaigns making the Keystone State a frequent stop. Just this week, Donald Trump came to the Philadelphia suburbs and President Barack Obama, campaigning for Clinton, was in Philadelphia.
Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, was also in Pennsylvania this week, holding a rally at Kenworth of Pennsylvania, just outside of Scranton.
Election Day is Nov. 8.
Thank you for the good info.
But voter fraud is a problem elsewhere.
So do you think Trump will win PA?
It’s a problem everywhere, but the margins by which we lost PA in the last several cycles simply can’t be ascribed to fraud. It’s a mistake to do so.
One message that would work pretty much statewide except in the highly populous counties around Philadelphia would be Hillary's war on guns. That is well documented and he can destroy her in her own words, with her own videos. PA is one of the most gun-loving states in America, its location in the Northeast notwithstanding.
Pennsylvania or Michigan, likely, and Trump is trending up in both.
You make very good points and I agree with you.
I think Trump will carry PA and the coal issue will firm it up for him.
What’s your feeling?
Thank you! That makes sense.
Please disregard my last question as I asked it before I saw your answer here.
Ditto!
Actually, with Michigan almost in the bag and Wisconsin now in play, Pennsylvania will only add to his landslide.
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