GOP insiders: Maybe Trump can win

The Politico ^ | September 9, 2016 | Steven Shepard

[2ndDivisionVet]

Once resigned to a November defeat, swing state Republicans are increasingly optimistic about Donald Trump’s chances now that the GOP presidential nominee has closed a once-yawning deficit in the polls against Hillary Clinton.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, operatives and strategists in 11 battleground states, 10 of which President Barack Obama carried in 2012. While a majority of GOP insiders still say Clinton would carry their state if the election were held today, significantly more Republicans now say Trump would win than even just a few weeks ago.

But despite Trump’s improving prospects, GOP insiders express little confidence in the Trump campaign’s infrastructure — particularly compared with how Democrats feel about Clinton’s campaign.

Still, the uptick in how Republicans view Trump’s chances is striking. In this week’s survey, 61 percent of GOP insiders said Clinton would win their state, but the 39 percent who picked Trump to win is a new high-water mark for the GOP nominee. It’s a measure The POLITICO Caucus tracks on a weekly basis, and for most of August, only about one-in-five Republican insiders thought Trump would win their state.

“Trump has turned the tide in Ohio, and he would win by a microscopic margin if the race were held today,” said a Republican there. (All respondents completed the survey anonymously.)

“The political landscape has changed in the past few weeks in Colorado, as well as the nation,” added a Republican there. “Reluctant Republicans are realizing the choice is ideological, angry Bernie supporters just can't support Hillary because of what the DNC leaks exposed, and independents are indicating many will also throw support for Trump in Colorado because Hillary is so toxic.”(continued)

[DouglasKC]

We had a roundtable discussion of politics with a church group back in August of 2015. Someone asked “Does Donald Trump have a chance?” I said, yup, he’s going to win it all. This was based on “The Art of the Deal” and even at that point seeing that he was doing exactly what he said he did to make and close big deals. His opponents have no clue how to do this. They just have the standard how to win elections playbook which is grossly wrong because 90% of it is based on power and influence. He’s a shark in a tank of guppies.

[DouglasKC]

He’s going to win Michigan big. He’s doing a smart thing by making a black outreach in the Detroit area. That’s the area that tips the scales toward dems in every election. If he can cut into that just a little bit it’s in the bag.

[DouglasKC]

I think this will be all about turnout. Nobody is excited enough about Hillary to stand in line for hours to vote. I think the numbers will be staggering. Trump supporters will crawl over cut glass to vote Dems, not so much.

Especially after yesterday when she said (paraphrasing) that half of trump supporters are the worst types of people in the world and the other half are confused idiots.