Posted on 09/07/2016 2:07:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The highly accurate Emerson College Poll
Emerson College Polling University
finds Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in Deep Blue New England, but will be forced to defend New Jersey and Rhode Island. Among Independents, Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton in Rhode Island (+20), Massachusetts (+8) and New Jersey (+4 points), while she holds the edge in Vermont (+22 points), Maine (+12), Connecticut (+9) and New Hampshire (+2).
As Figure 1 depicts, Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Trump ranges from a high of 21 points in Vermont (47% to 26%) to a low of just 3% in Rhode Island (44% to 41%), which is within the sample’s margin of error. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson is doing more damage to Mr. Trump than Mrs. Clinton, taking 14% of the vote in New Hampshire, 13% in Vermont, 12% in Maine and under 10% in the remaining four states. As explained below the table, the support for Gov. Johnson comes disproportionately from potential Republican voters, particularly those who supported Mr. Trump’s former rivals. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 7% of the vote in Vermont and 4% or less in the remaining six states.
Worth noting, while he trails overall in the state, Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton in Maine’s Second Congressional District by a margin of 41% to 36. Maine allocates it’s electoral votes based on the winner of each district, which if it holds, would make him the first Republican to take the 1 electoral vote from the state since the 1980s.
(CHART-AT-LINK)
Mrs. Clinton’s advantage is significantly smaller in several of the deep blue states polled juxtaposed to President Barack Obama’s state-level margins of victory in the 2012 general election. In Massachusetts, former Gov. Mitt Romney’s home state, Mr. Obama won by 24 points. Now, Mrs. Clinton currently leads Mr. Trump by 17. In 2012, Mr. Obama won Vermont by 36%, but Mrs. Clinton only leads Trump by 21%.
She holds a scant 3-point advantage in Rhode Island, which Obama won by a whopping 28 points.
Once again, the polling data indicate that both candidates are having difficulty winning over the voters who supported their former rivals. In six of the states polled by Emerson College, between 60% and 65% of voters who supported Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders–less than two-thirds–have moved over to Mrs. Clinton. In Rhode Island, that percentage is only 50%. For Mr. Trump, in the six states, less than 50% of his former rivals’ voters combined are backing the party’s nominee, with Gov. Johnson drawing 25% or more in four of the states, including 33% in Vermont and 30% in New Hampshire.
Meanwhile, in the Granite State, incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte appears to be in some trouble, though she leads Democratic governor Maggie Hassan 48% to 46%, which is well within the margin of error. However, Gov. Hassan is viewed more favorably than Sen. Ayotte, enjoying a 52% to 41% (+11) favorable/unfavorable rating juxtaposed to 44% to 48% (-4) for the Republican.
In Vermont, Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy is leading Republican challenger Scott Milne, 57% to 34%. Sen. Leahy, who was first elected to the Senate in 1974, is still rather popular with voters. His favorable/unfavorable rating is well above water 64% to 28% (+36). Mr. Milne’s numbers are a less impressive 29% to 33% (-4), even though 34% of voters undecided about him.
In Connecticut, incumbent Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who won reelection in 2010 during a tough bid after lying about his military record, still holds a significant lead over Republican state representative Dan Carter, 54% to 33%. Nearly 6 out of 10 likely voters (57%) view Sen. Blumenthal favorably and 34% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Voters are not familiar with Mr. Carter and his favorable/unfavorable rating is underwater 9% to 18%, with 42% undecided about him and 30% who have never heard of him.
Read Full Results: ECPS_final press release and toplines_ Northeast Polls_9.7 v3a
The Caller IDs for the seven state polls are as follows: •The Emerson College New Jersey poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, and congressional district. •The Maine poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age, gender and congressional district. •The Rhode Island poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age, gender and congressional district. •The New Hampshire poll was conducted September 3-5. The sample consisted of 600 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. •The Connecticut poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 1,000 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. •The Vermont poll was conducted September 2-5. The sample consisted of 600 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. •The Massachusetts poll was conducted September 3-5. The sample consisted of 500 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age, gender and congressional district.
It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.
Is this Johnson guy for real? I tell ya’, if we have another Perot spoiler election. . . Johnson ought to be tarred and feathered if he elects Hillary. Hey Johnson, it’s just the future of our Sacred Republic that’s at stake. Will you please drop out? We got enough to worry about with Hillary. The reality, for anyone who’s for Johnson, is it’s going to be Trump or Hillary. Which one do You want?
Not terribly encouraging other than NH and NJ. I still think that NJ is a bridge too far for Trump but NJ is also like a second home for him. He’s been a fixture here for over 30 years. If she can’t win NJ she will lose and if she is really only up 4 here then she is down big in other places. Was hoping for better results in ME and CT but there is still a lot of time left and none are early voting states if I am correct.
That’s the most aggravating thing of all! You don’t know which way the pendulum is swinging! If you want to gauge it by crowd size then Trump has it in the bag but on the other hand sanders had Yuge crowds and the votes did not materialized! We all know the shameless rats rigged and stole the race from him but still big crowds doesn’t mean Diddley squat! turned out is the key that opens the entrance door to the White House! All we can do now is pray to God almighty for victory and a YUGE voter turnout!!
“Jersey is difficult with Camden, Trenton, Newark but all the trades I know are voting Trump as are all of my friends/family etc.”
I do not think that the enthusiasm is there for Hillary. I hope a lot of dimoKKKRATS just stay home. If that is the case Trump may very well pull off a win.
Survey Monkey was headed by Mary Katherine Ham’s Late, VERY ULTRA LIBERAL husband.....iirc.
Should have let them go their own way in 1815.
Trump is winning Jersey
And Trump is going to win Texas as well
Stop thinking like it is 1999
Christie won in New Jersey, twice, first election by 3-4 points, second election by 20 points, landslide.
Christie grabbed suburban votes while the inner city sat home. The inner city sat home because Buono, the crazy lady Christie was running against in his re-election bid was a big NJEA goon, the NJEA dumped millions into her failed campaign. They weren’t promising the inner-city “school choice” or anything like that so they sat home. NJEA is against school choice for the obvious reasons
Trump can pull it off as well and he is talking school choice, inner city parents, whom are stuck there because they can’t afford to move to the pricey suburbs. You can buy a home in Trenton for 70K but a similar home in Lawrenceville would cost you over 400K. So they look at school choice as a way to help their children get out of drug infested, gang infested, NJEA hell holes called public schools. So Trump will get that vote.
The gimmedats are not motivated, they hate Clinton and dislike Trump. They hate Clinton because she is a corrupt crooked politician who spent her live saying one thing while collecting a check from the people she was supposed to be against.
It will be all about turnout. Trump can win New Jersey and he should, it would be a big feather in his cap, a victory that would end election night before it even got started.
Could you imagine the weasels at the news desks on election night delaying the New Jersey numbers if Trump won it? Because you all know they wanted an all night nail bitter horse race, if Trump wins NJ, it is over at that point.
It's a surprise to find out that MKH's late husband was in the Clinton White House (Uniparty), but I don't see that he was at Survey Monkey.
Pretty damn sure he was because I had NEVER heard of it OR him before and had NO idea she would be married to a STUPID EVIL LIBERAL!!
Mostly Dems and libtards do these polls. It's really having the enemy, the Dem Party, tell you what's happening.
uh....I just GOOGLED it/////GOOGLE is your friend.
I follow some poli sci people on twitter for info and they ALL, ALL, ALL hate Trump.
And man are they complaining about the polling these days LOL!
I live in Maine, and another poll here on FR had TRump and Clinton tied in Maine 42% each.
Is this poll just “Independents?”
That’s what one line says near the top of the article, “Among Independents.....”
Agreed. George Washington couldn’t win NJ.
I think many will stay home
I am hoping that this will be one of the most extraordinary elections of our nation’s history.
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