Posted on 04/22/2016 2:32:50 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.
Whats left now?
California 172 Indiana 57 New Jersey 51 Washington 44 Maryland 38 Nebraska 36 West Virginia 34 South Dakota 29 Connecticut 28 Oregon 28 Montana 27 New Mexico 24 Rhode Island 19 Pennsylvania 17 +54
Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.
He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.
Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.
Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.
Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.
Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on. One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.
However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.
Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.
Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote): Oregon 28 Oklahoma 43 California (projected) 100 South Dakota 29 Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54 Arkansas 40 Kansas 40 Kentucky 46 Montana 27
The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.
This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.
The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.
Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.
So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
The Trumophiles heads are exploding but this has been obvious for some time.
Hahahahahahaha
What moron thinks Cruz is going to pick up 50+ delegates in PA?
Look I have no problem if someone prefers Cruz over Trump but that doesn’t grant you the right to invent your own reality out of whole cloth.
I am even willing to listen to scenarios where Trump winds up short of the nomination number, but those hypothesises must have some basis in reality and Red State and others are just lost in their own delusions when it comes to Cruz’s chances and numbers.
Next Tuesday Trump will go 5 for 5. Cruz will finish in third place in at least 2 to 3 of them. Trumps momentum will continue to build while Cruz’s numbers continue to fall. Cruz’s next win won’t be until
May 10... I know his loyalist say it will be May 3rd but I wouldn’t bet the farm on that.
Cruz has 3 states left he will likely win. SD, MT and NE. He will be coming in third very often in the remaining states, Trumps margin of victory will continue to grow with every win he gets. There is no path left for Cruz, not even the mythological contested convention that his faithful are banking on.
The party will not give the nomination to someone so soundly rejected by the voters. They will not give it to someone who’s only win east of the Mississippi was ME and who is finishing in third place as often as not in the home stretch. There is no path left for Cruz, and the derangement some folks like red state are engaging in, which have no basis in reality, to prop up the Cruz supporters is laughable.
LOL....no other response to this drivel.
“Who knew it was such a ridiculous position to maintain that men should use the Men’s Room and women should use the Women’s Room?”
That comment of yours demonstrates you are too willfully ignorant to know the differences between what constitutes a man or a woman, much less be capable of policing the usage of the Man and Woman rest rooms.
“You see how you are willing to tie yourself into knots to defend this guy?”
I’m not d3efending any guy at all. I’m simply highlighting the desperate lengths to which Cruz and his supporters will go to make absurd misrepresentations and smears of Cruz’s opponents for the purpose of political gain. Trump does not smoke, drink, or use illegal drugs; and he has taught his children to refrain from these activities as well. The one glaring criticism you make against Trump is perhaps his adultery and his business connections with the gambling industry. Cruz is avoiding the Trump’s past adultery for the most part, and this may or may not be due to Cruz having more adulterous affairs than Trump. Whatever the truth may be there is no good reason to believe Trump is going to be promoting the LGBT agenda to put unambiguous males into women’s showers and rest rooms where his female family members and those of the voters may be threatened if it can be helped. He too obviously is prepared to defend his family and the families of the voters where he can help it. Suggestions by Cruz and his supporters to falsely smear Trump or any other candidate like Trump with these LGBT accusations reflect disastrously against Cruz and his fanatical supporters.
“Well get used to it, because it going to get a lot worse between now and November.”
So, you are going to deliberately spread false propaganda against another Republican candidate in an attempt to override the popular vote in the primaries and lose to the Democrat candidate in the General Election. Brilliant election tactic for anyone who wishes to support the Democrats.
“(By the way, I see that the Trump supporters here are concentrating on Bathroom Gender Fluid Equity, and not talking about raising taxes and going squishy on abortion. Must not be today’s talking point...)”
Those comments illustrate how Cruz and his proponents have sunk to ever new lows in disinformation and strawman arguments, which are motivating millions more voters to settle for Trump in the absence of any remotely better qualified candidates.
***********
I don't know about that but it's for sure the people that know him
don't want him as an elected official
Oregon House of Representatives District 44, General Election, 2014
Democratic Tina KotekIncumbent 85.5% 19,760 Republican Michael H. Harrington 13.6% 3,151
Oregon House of Representatives, District 44, General Election, 2012
Democratic Tina KotekIncumbent 86.7% 23,235 Republican Michael Harrington 13.3% 3,557
Cruz is a first term senator who has not accomplished anything in what, 4 years ?
Oh wait, in 2014 he finally gave up his Canadian citizenship, 2 years after he was elected to the Senate and just when he started planning his presidential campaign. So I guess that is one accomplishment
Haven’t we already had enough of first term senators who make grand speeches and organize communities and caucus votes, but never built anything or ran a lemonade stand?
Why are we continually subjected to these articles of Cruz propaganda from RedState posted by the Cruz campaign worker 2ndDivisonVet?
I know the difference between a man and a woman. I know the difference between a Men’s Room and a Women’s Room. Cruz maintains that it should be the rule that men use the Men’s Room and women use the Women’s Room. Trump maintains it should be the rule that people should use whatever room they want, regardless of biology.
This is a clear difference between them. Which do you prefer?
Should it be the rule that men should use the Men’s Room and women should use the Women’s Room?
Or should it be the rule that people should use whichever room they like, regardless of biology?
This is not complicated. Pick one.
But don’t tell me that Trump will stand up for America and everything that is important when he can’t even stand up to the Bathroom Bullies.
More like Baghdad Bob.
He is Oregon what do you expect. He is a delegate. He wrote anothe piece prior to the NY election stating the Cruz has won the nomination similar to this article.
The only problem with your post is that NOTHING in it is true.
Was he in a Colorado pot shop when he wrote this? Trump polling ahead in CA and PA, but few to no delegates.
Is there any way to filter Free Republic to only show articles posted by users other than “2ndDivisionVet” ?
“There have been very few complaints the way it is,” he said. “People go, they use the bathroom that they feel is appropriate. There has been so little trouble. The problem with what happened in North Carolina is the strife and the economic punishment they are taking.”
Trump, working against type, stepped away from the gotcha.
Careful, man. You have to build up a tolerance to survive two 55 gallon drums.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
Red State is completely insane. Anyone who posts their articles loses credibility.
I can see it now. Ted leading the charge kicking open the door to the stall and yelling “Poop Patrol, you’re under arrest”.
Dude, seriously, when this is over, you will have lost much credibility.
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