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How Ted Cruz could actually still beat Donald Trump
Salon ^ | April 4, 2016 | Gary Legum

Posted on 04/04/2016 4:01:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Brace yourselves, America, because this year's Republican National Convention is going to be a doozy

As we crawl towards the halfway point of this execrable primary season — nope, we’re not quite halfway to the end yet! — there is one question that may come to haunt the Donald Trump campaign if he does not ultimately win the nomination: Is it already too late for him to seed state delegations with enough loyalists who will vote for him in the event the party convention in July requires multiple ballots to pick a nominee?

Before we get to that, though, a quick primer: While Trump has won the most pledged delegates in the state primaries so far, the party insiders who will actually serve as those delegates in Cleveland are only now being selected at state party conventions. While those delegates are required to vote for Trump on the first ballot at the national convention, they are free to switch their votes if the party needs to go to a second ballot or more to select a nominee. That is why it is so important for Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs for the nomination before the convention starts. Fall short of that, and anything goes.

That 1,237 number is what Ted Cruz and John Kasich are trying to deny Trump by staying in the race despite his large lead. It is Cruz in particular who is not only well positioned to deny Trump delegates in the remaining primaries; additionally, he’s cultivated a well-organized corps of loyalists who are gaming the state conventions and hunting up delegates who are either unpledged or committed to candidates who have dropped out of the race, and talking them into switching their loyalties to the Texas senator. His campaign already pulled off a bit of a coup in this regard in Louisiana and is working on other states, such as Colorado and even Massachusetts, despite the fact he won only 9.6 percent of the popular vote in the latter’s primary.

Pause for a second to savor this irony. Ted Cruz, possibly the only Republican more personally loathed by loyal party members than Donald Trump, is also the party’s best hope for keeping Trump off the ticket for the general election. It’s a little bit like if your doctor tells you a raging case of herpes is the only thing that can clear up your chlamydia.

A well-thought-out presidential campaign plans for the state conventions and the politicking necessary to secure delegates in a closely contested nomination fight. It is yet another irony of these primaries that Cruz, the least likable human being to walk the earth since the ancient Persians sealed Xerxes I in his tomb, has run the smartest, most disciplined and organized campaign among the entire GOP field. If he wasn’t such a hateful dick, he might have the nomination sewn up by now.

But back to Trump. He responded to Cruz’s Louisiana move the way he knows best: By going on Twitter and threatening to sue the Republican National Committee for being unfair. On Thursday he met with RNC chairman Reince Priebus, who gently explained that securing the nomination requires more than just showing up, insulting minorities, and tweeting insults at Megyn Kelly. There are actual rules to the contest that Trump has been leading for the last eight months

Trump allegedly suggested to the aides who accompanied him to the meeting that they had failed to do their jobs and get on top of the delegate wrangling. In truth, his campaign seems to have woken up to the problem at least a few days before when it hired Paul Manafort, a longtime GOP operative who worked for Gerald Ford during the GOP’s last brokered convention, in 1976. Manafort’s job will be to play catch-up on the delegate-harvesting front, trying to keep the Cruz campaign from peeling away enough to deny Trump that magic 1,237 number before the voting in Cleveland starts.

Failing that, Manafort will need to find enough loyalists who will stick with voting for Trump on a second ballot and beyond. That will leave the campaign free to concentrate on convincing enough delegates on the convention floor to switch their votes to Trump after the first ballot.

To be sure, there are other ways Cruz can try to get around Trump, including stacking the convention’s rules committee with his own people. The question is whether, while playing catch-up on wrangling delegates, the Trump campaign also has the time and resources to game out and plan for some of those other possibilities. Cruz’s team has been working on this since 2015, and probably studying up on it for longer than that. Whether Trump can adapt may well determine his chances of winning.

And if he can’t adapt, we can look forward to a tantrum of enormous proportions in Cleveland. Buckle up, folks.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; 500khushmoney; assassination; clubforgrowthspam; cruz; cruzbundlerposting; delegates; globalistcruz; liberalslovecruz; moosebitsister; noteligiblecruz; openboarderscruz; salonforcruz; tdsdoubletime; tdseveningshift; tedcruz; trump
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To: altura
Have you noticed there’s no movement to stop Cruz?

There doesn't need to be. Cruz can't win and even if he does Hillary/Obama will destroy him over his eligibility.

61 posted on 04/04/2016 4:31:40 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Rafael Cruz: Canadian-born, Cuban ancestry, ineligible for POTUS)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Salon left the only thing that could work, Divine Intervention.


62 posted on 04/04/2016 4:32:51 PM PDT by navymom1
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To: altura

You just called Cruz good looking and refer to someone else as a sad case. Lol.


63 posted on 04/04/2016 4:33:48 PM PDT by major-pelham
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To: exDemMom
Cruz Not handsome in the conventional sense but he looks like a real man and not Howdy Doody.

He looks like Bill Murray.

----------

Cruz looks like the Zodiac Killer:

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a42288/is-ted-cruz-the-zodiac-killer/

64 posted on 04/04/2016 4:34:26 PM PDT by Trumpinator ("Are you Batman?" the boy asked. "I am Batman," Trump said.)
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To: altura
How do you know. You probably didn’t read the article either.

I don't need to. Salon is just writing this crap to stop Trump. If Trump wasn't running they'd be running hit pieces on Cruz.

By the way, do you pledge to vote for Cruz if he gets the nomination?

Hell mutha no. I have no intention of voting for Rafael after he stood with THUGS instead of the rule of law in Chicago back on Fri 03/11. But it doesn't matter anyway because Rafael is ineligible and will get taken out by Obama's judges.

Don’t worry about the pledge thing. Donald’s already broken his so I guess it’s ok if you do so as well.

Just like the RNC broken their pledge, right?

65 posted on 04/04/2016 4:34:37 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Rafael Cruz: Canadian-born, Cuban ancestry, ineligible for POTUS)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well, thanks for posting the article.

It was interesting in a Salon-ish way.

Sorry the trumpers are afraid to read it.

Nobody posted any comments worth responding to so I’m gonna take a nap.

Hang in there.


66 posted on 04/04/2016 4:34:55 PM PDT by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: altura
Talk to people who don't like Cruz, if you can find some who actually know who he is.

It's easy to find people that don't like Cruz. It's much more difficult to find people who do like him.

Of course, that will depend upon where you are located, I'm sure.

The bulk of people I've talked to want nothing to do with Cruz for multiple reasons, such as “too extreme” and too religious. Those who are not very familiar with Cruz are turned off by his “religiousity” and the fact that he “had something to do” with that government shutdown a while back.

Cruz has exceptionally few who are partial to him outside of his dedicated followers. There is little enthusiasm surrounding him and his campaign. He's a lawyer, and most are not ‘likable”. Cruz can come off as a bore who uses “lawyerese” when he speaks, and that is something that most people instinctively dislike.

67 posted on 04/04/2016 4:35:13 PM PDT by Pox (Good Night. I expect more respect tomorrow.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
It is yet another irony of these primaries that Cruz, the least likable human being to walk the earth since the ancient Persians sealed Xerxes I in his tomb, has run the smartest, most disciplined and organized campaign among the entire GOP field. If he wasn’t such a hateful dick, he might have the nomination sewn up by now.

What higher praise can any conservative ever receive from the far left-wing liberal douche-bags at Salon?

68 posted on 04/04/2016 4:35:57 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

How can I call you a liar, if you haven’t voted yet, Poodle?


69 posted on 04/04/2016 4:37:57 PM PDT by nikos1121 (Think of how stupid the average person is; realize half of them are stupider than that. Geo Carlin.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Either way, it still equates to corruption.


70 posted on 04/04/2016 4:38:16 PM PDT by XenaLee (The only good commie is a dead commie)
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To: altura

Amazing isn’t it? lol


71 posted on 04/04/2016 4:38:28 PM PDT by nikos1121 (Think of how stupid the average person is; realize half of them are stupider than that. Geo Carlin.)
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To: altura

If he wins fair and square yes.


72 posted on 04/04/2016 4:38:53 PM PDT by nikos1121 (Think of how stupid the average person is; realize half of them are stupider than that. Geo Carlin.)
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To: Pox
too extreme...too religious...He's a lawyer

Never mind liking him or not....

HE'S A FREAKING CANADIAN!

73 posted on 04/04/2016 4:38:57 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Ohhh....Derka derka derka!)
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To: 20yearsofinternet

Yeah....cause.....Ted Cruz doesn’t have 20%+ of the Democrats voting for him like Trump does. What an endorsement that is!


74 posted on 04/04/2016 4:39:40 PM PDT by XenaLee (The only good commie is a dead commie)
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To: altura

He is neither. I read on FB that women who posted consider him creepy. There is just something about him that says he is not trustworthy. He was my second choice but the more I learned, the less I liked him. Vote Trump.


75 posted on 04/04/2016 4:40:28 PM PDT by MamaB (Heb. 13:2)
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To: Bubba_Leroy

Just that part was good enough to post the whole article.


76 posted on 04/04/2016 4:40:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: altura
I don’t know who thinks Cruz is unlikable or why. He’s extremely personable when being interviewed, in town halls, speaking to voters one on one.

I think his presentation is awful. This breathless speech pattern and cadence is annoying. He relies on principle, but the thing is that most people know that nobody is "that" principled.

I find him to be a poor salesman for conservative philosophy. He's selling features, not benefits. Maybe that was enough in the past, but not anymore.

He comes across as a naturally obnoxious guy. Smartest kid in the sixth grade. His act may have scored in the seventies and eighties, but not today.

77 posted on 04/04/2016 4:41:46 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
But back to Trump. He responded to Cruz’s Louisiana move the way he knows best: By going on Twitter and threatening to sue the Republican National Committee for being unfair. On Thursday he met with RNC chairman Reince Priebus, who gently explained that securing the nomination requires more than just showing up, insulting minorities, and tweeting insults at Megyn Kelly. There are actual rules to the contest that Trump has been leading for the last eight months

Sums it up rather nicely...

I find it amazing that Trump supporters blame Cruz for Trump not knowing how the game is played or the rules or think the rules should be changed because their guy was caught flat footed...

I guarantee if the roles were reversed they would be calling Cruz supporters a bunch of whiny crybabies..

78 posted on 04/04/2016 4:43:57 PM PDT by Popman (Christ Alone: My Cornerstone...)
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To: altura

Because he is one of them. Why would anyone want to stop him when they know things will remain the same?


79 posted on 04/04/2016 4:45:24 PM PDT by MamaB (Heb. 13:2)
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To: nikos1121

Well, since you’re not allowed to follow me into the voting booth, you’ll have to take my word for it, just as I have to believe yours.


80 posted on 04/04/2016 4:46:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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