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How Ted Cruz could actually still beat Donald Trump
Salon ^ | April 4, 2016 | Gary Legum

Posted on 04/04/2016 4:01:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Brace yourselves, America, because this year's Republican National Convention is going to be a doozy

As we crawl towards the halfway point of this execrable primary season — nope, we’re not quite halfway to the end yet! — there is one question that may come to haunt the Donald Trump campaign if he does not ultimately win the nomination: Is it already too late for him to seed state delegations with enough loyalists who will vote for him in the event the party convention in July requires multiple ballots to pick a nominee?

Before we get to that, though, a quick primer: While Trump has won the most pledged delegates in the state primaries so far, the party insiders who will actually serve as those delegates in Cleveland are only now being selected at state party conventions. While those delegates are required to vote for Trump on the first ballot at the national convention, they are free to switch their votes if the party needs to go to a second ballot or more to select a nominee. That is why it is so important for Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs for the nomination before the convention starts. Fall short of that, and anything goes.

That 1,237 number is what Ted Cruz and John Kasich are trying to deny Trump by staying in the race despite his large lead. It is Cruz in particular who is not only well positioned to deny Trump delegates in the remaining primaries; additionally, he’s cultivated a well-organized corps of loyalists who are gaming the state conventions and hunting up delegates who are either unpledged or committed to candidates who have dropped out of the race, and talking them into switching their loyalties to the Texas senator. His campaign already pulled off a bit of a coup in this regard in Louisiana and is working on other states, such as Colorado and even Massachusetts, despite the fact he won only 9.6 percent of the popular vote in the latter’s primary.

Pause for a second to savor this irony. Ted Cruz, possibly the only Republican more personally loathed by loyal party members than Donald Trump, is also the party’s best hope for keeping Trump off the ticket for the general election. It’s a little bit like if your doctor tells you a raging case of herpes is the only thing that can clear up your chlamydia.

A well-thought-out presidential campaign plans for the state conventions and the politicking necessary to secure delegates in a closely contested nomination fight. It is yet another irony of these primaries that Cruz, the least likable human being to walk the earth since the ancient Persians sealed Xerxes I in his tomb, has run the smartest, most disciplined and organized campaign among the entire GOP field. If he wasn’t such a hateful dick, he might have the nomination sewn up by now.

But back to Trump. He responded to Cruz’s Louisiana move the way he knows best: By going on Twitter and threatening to sue the Republican National Committee for being unfair. On Thursday he met with RNC chairman Reince Priebus, who gently explained that securing the nomination requires more than just showing up, insulting minorities, and tweeting insults at Megyn Kelly. There are actual rules to the contest that Trump has been leading for the last eight months

Trump allegedly suggested to the aides who accompanied him to the meeting that they had failed to do their jobs and get on top of the delegate wrangling. In truth, his campaign seems to have woken up to the problem at least a few days before when it hired Paul Manafort, a longtime GOP operative who worked for Gerald Ford during the GOP’s last brokered convention, in 1976. Manafort’s job will be to play catch-up on the delegate-harvesting front, trying to keep the Cruz campaign from peeling away enough to deny Trump that magic 1,237 number before the voting in Cleveland starts.

Failing that, Manafort will need to find enough loyalists who will stick with voting for Trump on a second ballot and beyond. That will leave the campaign free to concentrate on convincing enough delegates on the convention floor to switch their votes to Trump after the first ballot.

To be sure, there are other ways Cruz can try to get around Trump, including stacking the convention’s rules committee with his own people. The question is whether, while playing catch-up on wrangling delegates, the Trump campaign also has the time and resources to game out and plan for some of those other possibilities. Cruz’s team has been working on this since 2015, and probably studying up on it for longer than that. Whether Trump can adapt may well determine his chances of winning.

And if he can’t adapt, we can look forward to a tantrum of enormous proportions in Cleveland. Buckle up, folks.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; 500khushmoney; assassination; clubforgrowthspam; cruz; cruzbundlerposting; delegates; globalistcruz; liberalslovecruz; moosebitsister; noteligiblecruz; openboarderscruz; salonforcruz; tdsdoubletime; tdseveningshift; tedcruz; trump
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yeah, you always suck me in. I start to read an article, then see who has post it, and it’s like I’m about to step on a snake in the woods, and I stop.


41 posted on 04/04/2016 4:23:19 PM PDT by nikos1121 (Think of how stupid the average person is; realize half of them are stupider than that. Geo Carlin.)
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

No they’re not:

Wisconsin GOP Polls: Cruz Has Advantage on Trump
http://heavy.com/news/2016/04/latest-wisconsin-gop-republican-polls-current-polling-numbers-primary-donald-trump-ted-cruz-john-kasich/


42 posted on 04/04/2016 4:24:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“I have stated here dozens of times that I will vote for Trump if he is the nominee. “

Bwahahahahahahahahaaaaaa!


43 posted on 04/04/2016 4:24:18 PM PDT by nikos1121 (Think of how stupid the average person is; realize half of them are stupider than that. Geo Carlin.)
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To: lodi90

LOL! Have you been living under a rock? The GOPe hate him nearly as much as they hate Trump! They are using him to undermine Trump. Don’t feel bad, because Cruz has been sucked in as well.


44 posted on 04/04/2016 4:24:29 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

How do you know. You probably didn’t read the article either.

By the way, do you pledge to vote for Cruz if he gets the nomination?

Don’t worry about the pledge thing. Donald’s already broken his so I guess it’s ok if you do so as well.


45 posted on 04/04/2016 4:24:48 PM PDT by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: altura

“I love Cruz’s voice ... it’s great. He could be an actor.”

LOL! He is an actor and though I prefer Trump I’ll vote for the actor if he gets the nomination, even an actor is better than a Rat.


46 posted on 04/04/2016 4:25:21 PM PDT by jazusamo (Have YOU Donated to Free Republic? https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

First of all, inhale deeply of some strong hallucinogenic substance and then proceed.


47 posted on 04/04/2016 4:25:38 PM PDT by odawg
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

In his dreams is how he will beat Trump. LOL!


48 posted on 04/04/2016 4:25:43 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: altura

Courage? I told you, I’m in mourning.


49 posted on 04/04/2016 4:25:49 PM PDT by nikos1121 (Think of how stupid the average person is; realize half of them are stupider than that. Geo Carlin.)
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To: nikos1121

Do you pledge to vote for Ted Cruz if he is nominated?

leadership wants to know.


50 posted on 04/04/2016 4:26:07 PM PDT by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: altura; Defiant

There’s this guy:

Why I Won’t Vote for Ted Cruz – #NeverCruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3417447/posts


51 posted on 04/04/2016 4:26:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: UnwashedPeasant
Crony Capitalism is a partnership between corrupt business people and corrupt elected officials who give each other bribes from the pubic treasury.

That's a very narrow view...

From Wiki: Crony capitalism is a term describing an economy in which success in business depends on close relationships between business people and government officials. It may be exhibited by favoritism in the distribution of legal permits, government grants, special tax breaks, or other forms of state interventionism.

In several instances, you can stick Trumps picture right next to that definition...

52 posted on 04/04/2016 4:27:11 PM PDT by Popman (Christ Alone: My Cornerstone...)
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To: nikos1121

You should be in mourning for Donald Trump’s foot.

He’s shot himself there so many times lately.

It is now in a cast and he can’t even hobble to the mirror to do his combover.


53 posted on 04/04/2016 4:27:50 PM PDT by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: plain talk
as I understand there is nothing magic about this 1237 number.

There is nothing "magic" about it. It is simply the number of delegates needed to have an absolute majority of delegates this year (50% + 1). That has been the requirement to win the GOP nomination for 160 years, so there's nothing magic about it - it's just what is required to win. But no one is going to agree to allow someone to win the nomination with less than a majority of the delegates.

54 posted on 04/04/2016 4:28:21 PM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: nikos1121

So you’re calling me a liar? Have I ever made such an assertion of you?


55 posted on 04/04/2016 4:28:26 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Wisconsin GOP Polls: Cruz Has Advantage on Trump

These polls are polling registered Republicans who will vote for Bill Clinton if he ran as a Republican. I've pointed this out dozens of times.

I predict Trump will win by +5 or lose by -3 at the most. If Cruz wins, it will be a photo-finish like MO and he'll only pick up a handful of delegates as WI is not winner-take-all. It'll be a Pyrrhic victory for Rafael that'll make the actual Pyrrhic victory look like the U.S. after the Spanish-American War.

56 posted on 04/04/2016 4:28:30 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Rafael Cruz: Canadian-born, Cuban ancestry, ineligible for POTUS)
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To: altura

Ted Cruz, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Kasich are not remotely qualified to hold the office of presidency. Is Trump? Don’t know, but I do know, and so do the majority of people in this country, that others are not.

Now, if your boy or the democrat gets in, then we’re in sorry shape, My Friend. We are.

Cruz, Rubio... they got bad advice. They should have unified behind Trump. It’s never too late... but we’re seeing who these people are. They’re just like the rest.


57 posted on 04/04/2016 4:28:45 PM PDT by nikos1121 (Think of how stupid the average person is; realize half of them are stupider than that. Geo Carlin.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Sitting here waiting to post.

Waiting for a comment that isn’t too stupid to respond to.

Waiting.


58 posted on 04/04/2016 4:30:06 PM PDT by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

2d- if this thing is about to become a negotiation - can the irony be lost on you as it is on the author?


59 posted on 04/04/2016 4:30:10 PM PDT by major-pelham
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Yes, Trump has admitted often the protection money he has paid
as a cost of doing business.

But the question here is: Cruz and his Merry Pranksters
(ie followers) does NOT admit accepting all means of
support from the very cabal that we have all been fighting.

He & his MP are taking the road extremely well-travelled,
the one paved by the Establishment Globalists
60 posted on 04/04/2016 4:30:13 PM PDT by jobim
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