Posted on 04/04/2016 4:01:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Brace yourselves, America, because this year's Republican National Convention is going to be a doozy
As we crawl towards the halfway point of this execrable primary season — nope, we’re not quite halfway to the end yet! — there is one question that may come to haunt the Donald Trump campaign if he does not ultimately win the nomination: Is it already too late for him to seed state delegations with enough loyalists who will vote for him in the event the party convention in July requires multiple ballots to pick a nominee?
Before we get to that, though, a quick primer: While Trump has won the most pledged delegates in the state primaries so far, the party insiders who will actually serve as those delegates in Cleveland are only now being selected at state party conventions. While those delegates are required to vote for Trump on the first ballot at the national convention, they are free to switch their votes if the party needs to go to a second ballot or more to select a nominee. That is why it is so important for Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs for the nomination before the convention starts. Fall short of that, and anything goes.
That 1,237 number is what Ted Cruz and John Kasich are trying to deny Trump by staying in the race despite his large lead. It is Cruz in particular who is not only well positioned to deny Trump delegates in the remaining primaries; additionally, he’s cultivated a well-organized corps of loyalists who are gaming the state conventions and hunting up delegates who are either unpledged or committed to candidates who have dropped out of the race, and talking them into switching their loyalties to the Texas senator. His campaign already pulled off a bit of a coup in this regard in Louisiana and is working on other states, such as Colorado and even Massachusetts, despite the fact he won only 9.6 percent of the popular vote in the latter’s primary.
Pause for a second to savor this irony. Ted Cruz, possibly the only Republican more personally loathed by loyal party members than Donald Trump, is also the party’s best hope for keeping Trump off the ticket for the general election. It’s a little bit like if your doctor tells you a raging case of herpes is the only thing that can clear up your chlamydia.
A well-thought-out presidential campaign plans for the state conventions and the politicking necessary to secure delegates in a closely contested nomination fight. It is yet another irony of these primaries that Cruz, the least likable human being to walk the earth since the ancient Persians sealed Xerxes I in his tomb, has run the smartest, most disciplined and organized campaign among the entire GOP field. If he wasn’t such a hateful dick, he might have the nomination sewn up by now.
But back to Trump. He responded to Cruz’s Louisiana move the way he knows best: By going on Twitter and threatening to sue the Republican National Committee for being unfair. On Thursday he met with RNC chairman Reince Priebus, who gently explained that securing the nomination requires more than just showing up, insulting minorities, and tweeting insults at Megyn Kelly. There are actual rules to the contest that Trump has been leading for the last eight months
Trump allegedly suggested to the aides who accompanied him to the meeting that they had failed to do their jobs and get on top of the delegate wrangling. In truth, his campaign seems to have woken up to the problem at least a few days before when it hired Paul Manafort, a longtime GOP operative who worked for Gerald Ford during the GOP’s last brokered convention, in 1976. Manafort’s job will be to play catch-up on the delegate-harvesting front, trying to keep the Cruz campaign from peeling away enough to deny Trump that magic 1,237 number before the voting in Cleveland starts.
Failing that, Manafort will need to find enough loyalists who will stick with voting for Trump on a second ballot and beyond. That will leave the campaign free to concentrate on convincing enough delegates on the convention floor to switch their votes to Trump after the first ballot.
To be sure, there are other ways Cruz can try to get around Trump, including stacking the convention’s rules committee with his own people. The question is whether, while playing catch-up on wrangling delegates, the Trump campaign also has the time and resources to game out and plan for some of those other possibilities. Cruz’s team has been working on this since 2015, and probably studying up on it for longer than that. Whether Trump can adapt may well determine his chances of winning.
And if he can’t adapt, we can look forward to a tantrum of enormous proportions in Cleveland. Buckle up, folks.
And yet here you are. Ironic, isn’t it?
He looks like Bill Murray?
Yeah, maybe a little bit.
Love Bill Murray.
Cruz will never see it coming when he gets dumped at the convention.
Why would they do that? Cruz is the GOPe’s guy. He was a career establishment guy up until his self interested jumpped on TEA party band wagon. He’s willing playing ball with GOP if it advances his career and that is all Ted Cruz is about.
YOu people are funny. YOu never post a positive article about your boy or boys. YOu only post this mental masturbation about Trump.
I know your type. You’re going to sit this one out if your boy, (ie anyone but Trump) gets the nom. Or maybe you might even vote for the democrat.
Like I said, you guys are funny people.
Ted Cruz likable? Have you tried listening to his voice? It is like nails on chalk.
Anyway, I hope this writer is wrong. I cannot in good conscience vote for a native born Canadian for president of the United States of America. The constitution has been compromised enough, I just do not want to be a part of doing it any further damage.
I at least read it.
A lot of it was Salon crap, but a lot of it made sense.
So go read it before you comment.
as I understand there is nothing magic about this 1237 number. It was pushed by Romney as rules were developed for the 2012 convention. The 2016 rules committee could change it and Trump and Cruz would have major input on the rules for the 2016 convention. It is just too soon to speculate. Trump might get the 1237 number anyway or the rule could get changed. who knows?
Crony Capitalism is a partnership between corrupt business people and corrupt elected officials who give each other bribes from the pubic treasury. Both sides are politicians. The corruption is shared equally on both sides of the trough.
I have stated here dozens of times that I will vote for Trump if he is the nominee. Do I have to make it my tagline?
I guess Cruz’s intelligence scares the average folk...Cruz is a genius for getting the GOPe to back him. Who’d a thunk that would ever happen??? Trump is a train wreck...and I still want a wall and I still think islam is a death cult.
Sorry, I can’t tonight. It’s the 10 year anniversary of the death of my pet clown fish, and I’m going to church to light a candle.
I love Cruz’s voice ... it’s great. He could be an actor.
In fact, he told Jimmy Kimmel that he wanted to be one but realized he didn’t have the face for it.
Yes, Ted is a real person with a sense of humor.
By the way, did you know that vowing not to vote for Cruz if he is the nominee was once grounds for dismissal here.
So make that vow one more time and I will ping someone in authority.
So, you don’t even have the courage to read an article.
You are a sad case, but most trumpers are.
I think everyone hates Ted Cruz. There’s even a song about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pdz2oLwA8l4
You really think Salon gives a damn about Cruz? You really believe they are on his side?
Polls in WI are already breaking for Trump. Cruz needs a total landslide victory just to get back on track.
Then he has to run in the NE where he will get totally destroyed by Trump.
God, you Cruz supporters are just absolutely myopic and pathetic. Your candidate is both getting screwed without Vaseline from the GOPe, and they won't give him the nomination anyway even if he does pull off 1,237.
It is 50% of the 2474 total delegates, so it means a majority. If no one gets a majority, it goes to a run-off.
Post why we should vote for your guy instead of why we shouldn’t vote for Trump.
The majority of us here, yes the vast majority of us were Cruz guys at the beginning. Now we’re not. We were hoping that these two would unite, but didn’t happen. Cruz got the big head.
He like Rubio in the end are going to be toast when in fact they would have been our future, apprenticing under Trump.
The past week and this has been, bash Trump. Not interested.
Well, that is patently not true.
I like Ted Cruz and many people do.
Have you noticed there’s no movement to stop Cruz?
Do you honestly think I will click on your pathetic link, but maybe some little trumpers will.
None of what Trump did was “crony capitalism.” It was abiding by leftist, arcane NYC and state laws and paying a King’s Ransom to make sure they were followed.
“Two roads diverged in a wood, and Trump—
Trump took the one less traveled by,
And that does make all the difference.”
Quite appropriate.
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