Posted on 03/18/2016 3:30:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
From the last Morning Jolt of the week:
Is Ted Cruz Going to Be Able to Pull This Off? Right now, as a #NeverTrump guy, I'm rooting hard for Ted Cruz. We haven't seen any polls conducted after Rubio's departure from the race - either in key upcoming states or nationally - so we don't have a good sense of whether anti-Trump Republicans are coalescing around him. Tuesday Arizona holds its primary and Utah holds its caucus. At first glance, those are natural Cruz states, right?
[Cue ominous music.]
Notice that we've had two polls of Arizona Republicans - you know, not too far from Texas* - and Trump's well ahead of Cruz in both. The two polls were conducted before Rubio dropped out, so maybe Rubio's 10 to 12 percent will shift to Cruz and help the Texas senator make up the deficit of... 12-14 points.
Uh-oh.
The last Utah poll was in mid-February, and had Rubio 24, Cruz 22, Trump 18. Caucuses usually have low turnout, but the Utah one may turn out quite different:
For its presidential preference caucus next week, the Beehive State's Republican Party will allow any Utahn outside or inside the state to vote online. This will be the first time any political party has allowed online voting for a presidential primary election in the nation.
"We're stepping out on the national stage in a way we never have before," Bryan J. Smith, the executive director of the Utah Republican Party, said during a recent Utah caucus preparatory meeting. "This time it matters in more ways than you think."
The Utah Republican Party said its new method of voting will mainly help families, workers, missionaries and military workers throughout the world, who can't be in town for voting. It also may help Utah mothers, who find themselves swamped with child care and work.
A week from now, if Trump wins Arizona and Cruz wins Utah... do people begin to doubt whether Cruz can win a one-on-one race against Trump? Or do anti-Trump Republicans begin to really turn their ire against John Kasich for sticking around?
Politico reports, "Marco Rubio is close to endorsing Ted Cruz, but the two proud senators -- and recent fierce rivals -- have some details to work out first. Cruz has to ask for the Rubio's endorsement, and both sides need to decide that it will make a difference, according to sources familiar with the thinking of both senators."
If you're Cruz, why wouldn't you ask?
Meanwhile, one more ominous note for the #NeverTrump forces. According to the Associated Press count, Trump has 678 delegates, and needs 1,237. He's 559 delegates away from winning the nomination, and 1,059 remain. Can Trump win 53 percent of the remaining delegates?
Even if you feel confident in saying "no, Trump won't win that many delegates" - and yeah, that's a high bar to clear going forward - so far Trump has won about 46 percent of the delegates available so far. (He's done so with 37 percent of the votes cast in Republican primaries and caucuses so far.) Assume Trump maintains his current level of support throughout the rest of the process, and he'll get 46 percent of the remaining 1,059 delegates. That gives him 492 more delegates.
Trump would enter the convention in Cleveland with 1,170 delegates, just 67 short of what he needs. (It's easy to picture Trump's first phone call going to John Kasich, currently sitting there with 144 delegates.) Yes, you might hear talk or calls for a Cruz-Rubio ticket, but Trump will argue, with justification, he's won 94 percent of what was needed to be the nominee.
Derailing Trump will require a big surge from Cruz from here on out. Can he do it?
* Rule one: Look at a map before writing about which states are next to each other. Rule two: Don't write sentences like this before coffee.
Amazing, isn’t it, how much vitriol you receive when you offer a reasonable and supportive comment for your preferred candidate?
Use your CommonCore math, skeeter, what percentage of the primary voting community has voted for someone else other than CRUZ?
He's billed as a purist outsider that the establishment fears to their very core. With one wave of his Dominionist magic wand, he will abolish the IRS, shut down the DOE, shred the agreement with Iran, and overturn Obamacare. If he's as hated as he claims, I don't know how he expects to accomplish anything in cooperation with Congress.
Otherwise, what is wrong with what I said? Do we ignore those 63%? And why do you suppose primary rule for YEARS have had a delegate threshold for qualification for the nomination?
The cRUUUUSE knows it too, that he is handing the election to Hillary.
He is clinically ambitious, served less than one damn term in the US Senate, launches the bid for prez, after using TEXAS to catapult his sorry butt, did some pony tricks in the senate that accomplished zippo, nada, played tiddly winks with the GANG OF EIGHT and finds his genius self getting his hat handed to him by the only real change agent in the damn race— Donald TRUMP.
cRUSE is exposed as a globalist, can’t hide it, so is willing to team up with them to fiddle with the numbers and the delegates to kill off our change agent.
cRUSE is a loser, with family problems.
And you Cruz folks need to keep in mind that 80% have voted for someone other than Cruz. So there’s that to keep in mind.
The best case scenario for Cruz is that he manages to win Utah outright. In that case he needs 96% of the remaining delegates to win. After Wisconsin, that goes to 99.9%, and he’s mathematically eliminated after New York.
He probably should have dropped out on Wednesday, but if he waits another 2 weeks he’s done. All he can be is a spoiler. You know what that gets you? The Full Rubio, and a one way ticket to a cushy political consultant job.
I think Cruz will likely win UT. First Cruz does better in caucuses than elections, and Bishop Romney’s endorsement will help him get the LDS vote. The question is by how much? If Cruz gets over 50% he gets all 40 delegates. If he gets less and Trump gets at least 20% it’s some kind of split.
How do you come to that conclusion?
He's going for the most delegates.
Yeah, but then Cruz isn't promising 'really bad things' if he doesn't get the nomination. Is he.
I think that's what they call a running start into a brick wall.
Not supporting our leading pro-America candidate emerging from the convention when our nation is facing the grave risk of another America-hating, constitution-hating, capitalism-hating, God-hating Marxist/fascist/socialist/communist following Obama will be considered tantamount to treason. ~ JR
The Republican Party doesn’t want Trump but the Republican Party’s lack of action, created a Trump voter. The people who support Trump are tired of being lied to and want someone to stop what Obama has been doing to the country.
The Republican Party must not be raising enough money from donations to support Republican candidates throughout the country. They resent Trump because he is doing so well.
They fear Trump will not help them because they cannot control Trump.
Romney gives Cruz the LDS vote? Who gives the LDS vote that Harry Reid gets?
THANK you for making that point! I was just ready to zing it out there myself.
These Cruz berserkers are playing with the math. We may as well join in with the facts on the math.
How do you come to that conclusion?
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Not me, the article said it: Derailing Trump will require a big surge from Cruz from here on out. Can he do it?
Politicians would be stupid not to accept any support that came their way.
You can bet your butt that Trump would.
The establishment knows darn well that they can’t corrupt Ted.
So apparently, they don’t want Hillary.
Trump = Hillary
Don’t blame Cruz for his endorsements.
They are mostly people who cannot stand TRump, along with the rest of the country.
Ted just accepted the backing of the biggest sell-out in recent GOP history:
Mitt Romney.
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