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Ted Cruz surge is identified, will win election, Republican Polls
Red State ^ | March 9, 2016 | Michael Harrington

Posted on 03/09/2016 2:52:45 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

I have performed some math showing Polls versus Results

Ted Cruz has been dominating the polls recently. Every time the polls say he is going to perform X, he outdoes them with two minor exceptions.

(GRAPH-AT-LINK)

As seen in the graphic above Ted Cruz has been outdoing the Republican Polls by 15% or higher on average. In two cases we could not identify how much higher because of lack of Polls, these are Hawaii and Maine. However an examination of his wins shows either an extreme bias in the polls, or that the vote is always breaking for one candidate when it comes time to pull the lever.

An example of some of the differences, these are how much higher Ted Cruz did in actual results above the polls (RCP Average, last month or so only used)

Idaho 26.40%
Mississippi 19.30%
Kansas 19.20%
Kentucky 16.70%
Oklahoma 14.10%
Alaska 12.40%
Louisiana 10.10%

I would say it is probably fair that if it was polled Maine would be in that list as well.

In a previous effort I identified that 33% of Democrats in S. Carolina voted in the Republican Primary. This trend in Open Primaries has continued unabated by all appearances. Ted Cruz continues to dominate in closed Primaries after all....

(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: cruz; redstatefail; rubio; tedcruz; trump
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To: LS

Cruz isnt surging. Kasich votes will go to Trump.


21 posted on 03/09/2016 3:30:11 AM PST by Carry me back (.Cut the feds by 90%)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Yes--Cruz has Trump right where he wants him. /sarc

Redstate is churning out this nonsense at a frenetic pace, realizing that Trump is well on his way to sealing the deal.

22 posted on 03/09/2016 3:31:40 AM PST by CASchack
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
.. I'M ALREADY SICK AND TIRED OF WINNING. I SAID, THANK YOU MR. TRUMP FOR LOSING IDAHO, I NEEDED A BREAK! ..

(Ricky Vaughan)

23 posted on 03/09/2016 3:32:40 AM PST by Byron_the_Aussie (Michelle Obama, The Early Years: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBYGxBlFOSU)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Oh this is Red State what a bunch of BS. ALL BUNK. Cruz is stealing all of these States. These polls have to be accurate /sarc


24 posted on 03/09/2016 3:32:52 AM PST by eartick (Been to the line in the sand and liked it)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Red State...right down there with NR.


25 posted on 03/09/2016 3:37:03 AM PST by Redleg Duke (Remember...after the primaries, we better still be on the same team!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

interesting point made on fox business network this morning:
except cruz’ home state of texas, all of his (cruz) wins have come in states where voting is restricted to registered republican voters only.
bodes well for trump in a national election.


26 posted on 03/09/2016 3:38:19 AM PST by Palio di Siena
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To: PapaBear3625

That will get Teddy Bare on the DC Uni-Party “Good Boy” list.


27 posted on 03/09/2016 3:39:33 AM PST by Redleg Duke (Remember...after the primaries, we better still be on the same team!)
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To: Gaffer
But it is a horse race and not a run away that you tRump supporters make it out to be.

And as all horse races go, that last few feet make all the difference in the race. The horse lunges, jockey misses a beat or a whip or the horse is crowded against the rail.

Then it is over, they cross the wire.

Then the crying can begin by the fanatics on the side that lost.

And believe you me there are fanatics on BOTH sides but I believe Trump supporters are the nastiest I have ever seen. Nasty lil trolls.

I cannot keep up with them in the nasty department. BWHAHAHHAHAHHA

28 posted on 03/09/2016 3:39:38 AM PST by eartick (Been to the line in the sand and liked it)
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

Millennial Math, EVERYBODY WINS !! You Get a Trophy!, You Get a Trophy! EVERYBODY GETS A TROPHY!


LOL!! Was just thinking the same.

cRuz gets a participation medal.


29 posted on 03/09/2016 3:42:03 AM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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To: Carry me back
Kasich votes will go to Trump

Kasich is still saying if he doesn't get the nomination, he doesn't want VP. They all say that.

One thing for sure this year. Voters are following events closely, as is evidenced in rapid swings in voting patterns. I do think the Neil Bush addition to Ted Cruz's campaign was delusional. Evidence....in Michigan, Sanders opposition to big bank bailouts really resonated.

30 posted on 03/09/2016 3:43:33 AM PST by grania
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To: PapaBear3625
The most Cruz can do now is prevent Trump from getting a delegate majority, and thus throw the nomination to Romney in a brokered convention.

Male Bovine Scat.

And an EMP is going to explode over Kansas today

And an earthquake will happen in Arkansas today to make the Mississippi run backwards.

In other words FAT CHANCE. Just another illusion fostered up to keep the masses eyes off of the ball.

31 posted on 03/09/2016 3:44:59 AM PST by eartick (Been to the line in the sand and liked it)
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Comment #32 Removed by Moderator

To: Palio di Siena

So you actually think Trump can win states like California, New York, Massachusetts or New Jersey in the general election?


33 posted on 03/09/2016 3:46:13 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ 2016)
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To: Carry me back
Kasich votes will go to Trump.

Do not know about this.

Kasich is too establishment but on the other hand he does have a liberal streak a mile and a half wide like Trump.

So, you may be spot on.

34 posted on 03/09/2016 3:46:49 AM PST by eartick (Been to the line in the sand and liked it)
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To: anton

Don’t give them any ideas.


35 posted on 03/09/2016 3:48:35 AM PST by RC one
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

i think he can win new york and new jersey.


36 posted on 03/09/2016 3:48:46 AM PST by Palio di Siena
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To: eartick

And believe you me there are fanatics on BOTH sides but I believe Trump supporters are the nastiest I have ever seen. Nasty lil trolls.

I cannot keep up with them in the nasty department. BWHAHAHHAHAHHA


Mmmmmkay.


37 posted on 03/09/2016 3:49:59 AM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I'm sure glad Jesus is my Lord and savior, and that my real citizenship is in Heaven. Looks like we'll have a pro abortion president, even if we vote Republican. Trump hasn't done or said anything that convinces me he's truly pro life as he claims to be.

Abortion may be an issue Trump supporters think is irrelevant, and that the economy and immigration are more important, but according to my Bible God considers the shedding of innocent blood, especially the blood of children to be an abomination. A nation that can't protect the most helpless and innocent within the borders of the mother's womb, doesn't deserve to have it's national borders protected. A nation that rejects God is doomed to face his judgment, and in America's case his judgement will be extremely harsh and swift if we don't repent and stop this evil of abortion dead in it's tracks.

Go ahead and make Trump the Republican candidate, and watch to your horror as he goes ultra moderate in the general election to sell himself to all those moderate voters he'll think he needs. I hope to God I'm wrong on this, but I have this nagging suspicion that during the general election he'll be asked about abortion, and his answer will be something like “I'm personally pro life and hate abortion, but I also believe abortion should be safe and legal, and it's neither my or the government's job to decide what a woman does with her body.”.

Again I hope and pray I'm dead wrong about Trump, and his supporters are right about him, but my BS meter always spikes when Trump opens his mouth. I don't hate him, I just don't trust him yet. If he proves to be what he says, I'll admit I'm wrong and jump on the Trump band wagon.

Understand though, God can't bless or protect a nation that slaughters millions of innocent unborn children every year. Sure Abortion is legal now, but slavery was also legal at one time. Thankfully we elected a president, Abraham Lincoln, who had the conviction and courage to do the right thing and end slavery. We need an Emancipation Proclamation for the unborn, and the sooner we do it, the sooner God's hand of blessing can return to this nation, and we can have peace in all areas of American life.

38 posted on 03/09/2016 3:51:26 AM PST by Victory Rocks (Obama's hope, is to tax all our change.)
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To: LS
Very happy that Cruz “surges” to bigger delegate deficits. Trump 1/3 of the way and ahead of pace, Cruz further behind the pace.

This happy situation for you is about to end very abruptly starting in about a week, so enjoy it while you can.

39 posted on 03/09/2016 3:53:18 AM PST by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: Palio di Siena
I think you need to rethink your last sentence. You have it backwards.

It means Cruz is CARRYING the Republican base more than Trump is.

When it gets down to relying for Republican votes in the General, they will not be there. Rutttt Rohhhwww

The reasoning for Texas was that it was his home State and it had a huge crossover from the Valley area which would have normally voted Democrat. If you look at the Texas map it was all RED on the primary voting and not BLUE this year in the Valley or S Texas area. Open primaries give you these results

40 posted on 03/09/2016 3:53:28 AM PST by eartick (Been to the line in the sand and liked it)
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