But if Rubio doesn’t get out then it’s a contested convention and everyone loses. I don’t want Trump to win but I’d rather him win then have the GOPe put Kasich or Rubio in as the nominee.
This is the question every Cruz supporter has to ask themselves. When I war game this primary out the best scenario for Cruz is VP. After losing the entire south Cruz won’t hit 1237 delegates and the GOP are never going to allow Cruz to be top of ticket at a brokered convention. It’s just that simple.
So the real choice is Trump at the top of the ticket or Cruz at the bottom of it, IMO. Choose wisely.
The Cruz campaign believes it can win a majority of the delegates going forward, in a two man race.
The evangelicals went for Trump in the South. The Northeast might actually be worse for Trump at this point. The thinking is that the remaining states, given a choice between Trump or Cruz, will vote Cruz in a two man race. Maine is the operative example.
Split Ohio to Kasich and Florida to Trump and that forces Rubio out. Then, Cruz looks better in a virtual two man race going forward. It’s worth losing Florida to Trump to shake off Rubio bleeding votes in winner take all going forward.
Cruz won his Senate seat in a nine person primary where a party hack was the overwhelming favorite. His strategy then, same as now, was to work it to a two man race, and then be the contrast. It worked then. If Cruz can knock out Rubio, the strategy could work here two. At least, it’s consistent. Regardless if he wins, if he works it to a two man race, his strategy is a success in that that’s his best window to win.
When you understand that Cruz’ strategy from day one is to work it to a two man race, then you understand why he was content to run in Trumps wake for months, and why he’s hitting Rubio now in Florida. It makes sense when you examine the strategy being used.
That’s why Cruz will risk tossing Florida to Trump if it gets rid of Rubio.
My only question to that strategy is if Kasich wins MI and OH, then he’s got traction and it’s still a 3 man race.