New Hampshire's 'Liberty Wing' Shifts to Ted Cruz

Charisma Magazine's Charisma Caucus ^ | February 8, 2016 | Bob Eschliman

[2ndDivisionVet]

One of the under-reported stories leading up to Ted Cruz' win in the Iowa Republican Caucus was his ability to attract libertarian-leaning members of the GOP base.

With Rand Paul in the race, it seemed unlikely he would be able to convince New Hampshire's decidedly more libertarian "liberty wing" to follow suit. Paul dropped out of the race last week, and this week seven of the Kentucky senator's biggest Granite State supporters announced they are backing Cruz now.

State Rep. J.R. Hoell was among the first to switch. The mechanical engineer now in his third term serving New Hampshire House District 23 said:

"For years, I have worked very diligently to protect and advocate for the natural and constitutional rights of the gun owners of the state of New Hampshire. In reviewing the remaining candidates in the field, there is only one candidate that has a proven track record in defending the gun owners from further erosion of their rights, and that is Ted Cruz. I have grave concerns that other candidates would be willing to bargain our rights away and fail to support us when the time came to stand strong in defense of the second amendment. With that in mind, I stand with Gun Owners of America and agree that Cruz is our remaining best shot at electing a president to protect the rights of the gun owners of our great nation."(continued)

[Russ]

Well, that’s sure a game changer...

[rovenstinez]

I would LOVE IT if again the pollsters have shown a huge error in judgement.

[GodGunsGuts]

If you would like to be added to the
TED CRUZ 2016 PING LIST drop me a FReepmail.

[MattinNJ]

Cruz definitely benefits the most from Rand Paul dropping out. 4% is a lot with this many candidates. Ironically, the GOP establishment is splitting the vote to thinly this time. I hope we are right about Cruz

[2ndDivisionVet]

And Huckleberry and Sweater Vest.

[MaxFlint]

4% is a lot with this many candidates.

Not when #1 is 15 to 20 points up. Cruz is going to have to do a Newt Gingrich and pull out of his dive in SC. If he loses there he's toast.

[PA-LU Student]

I have said that should Cruz place second in NH, he would be able to go to SC and beyond arguing that he can win the states that he would do well in, while competing in all the rest. Likewise Trump would be able to technically do the same thing, however he would be coming in having won NH trying to convince the people of SC who are nowhere near as progressive as NH that he could win. Cruz would have an easier sell I think.

[MaxFlint]

Trump would be able to technically do the same thing, however he would be coming in having won NH trying to convince the people of SC who are nowhere near as progressive as NH that he could win. Cruz would have an easier sell I think.

I would have thought that too but Trump has been #1 in SC for a while. In fact all the "logical" arguments why Trump "can't win in the south" are - forgive me! - trumped by the many polls in the south which show Trump ahead.

[spintreebob]

1. How well Cruz does depends mostly on us Cruz supporters.
We are (or should be his ground game). Im impatient for the Cruz organization to contact us and tell us where to pick up poll lists, palm cards, etc. If they dont get the show on the road, the opportunity will be lost.

2. In IA Cruz got 8 delegates, Trump and Rubio each got 7. Carson 3. Paul 1 (so count Cruz 9, not 8). NH has even fewer delegates tan IA. SC has as many as IA and NH combined. NV then has a few.

But the SEC primary (that includes some non-SEC states) has the jackpot. Before SEC it is bogus to say anyone is in the lead. Pre-SEC the role is to weed out the Santorums and Pauls...and Jebs, not to define a leader.

The SEC will then define a leader.

[PA-LU Student]

I agree those polls show Trump ahead but those same poll showed him ahead for two weeks before Iowa. I think the polls are going to be off in NH, SC, and NV now the question becomes by how much are they off. If they are off as much as they were in Iowa, because Trump had 30 in most polls heading in and ended up with 24% a drop of six points. In NH that six points has to go somewhere, my guess probably one of the Govs, maybe all the Govs benefit. If one Governor gets all the support, it will be Trump, that Gov, and Cruz. If all the Govs gain, then Cruz will take second and all the Govs to follow. Now SC is different, if trump is off by six that states politics would probably mean those supporters would go towards a more conservative guy. There is only really Cruz and Carson. I think Carson has been done since Nov, after San Bernedino, thats when the focus really shifted towards defeating ISIS and Carson wasn’t ready for it. Leaving Cruz, I see maybe one Gov coming out of NH with his candidacy still viable, with Rubio still clinging on hoping to do something in either SC or NV.

[MaxFlint]

I agree those polls show Trump ahead but those same poll showed him ahead for two weeks before Iowa. I think the polls are going to be off in NH, SC, and NV now the question becomes by how much are they off.

They won't be off enough for Trump to lose. They could be off enough for Cruz to come in fifth.

Cruz supporters best bet is if the polls are right on the money. Because as of this hour a second place finish is Cruz's absolute best case scenario in NH. If he comes in third or worse he's Newt Gingrich without Adelson, limping along until he runs out of cash.