Not when #1 is 15 to 20 points up. Cruz is going to have to do a Newt Gingrich and pull out of his dive in SC. If he loses there he's toast.
I have said that should Cruz place second in NH, he would be able to go to SC and beyond arguing that he can win the states that he would do well in, while competing in all the rest. Likewise Trump would be able to technically do the same thing, however he would be coming in having won NH trying to convince the people of SC who are nowhere near as progressive as NH that he could win. Cruz would have an easier sell I think.
1. How well Cruz does depends mostly on us Cruz supporters.
We are (or should be his ground game). Im impatient for the Cruz organization to contact us and tell us where to pick up poll lists, palm cards, etc. If they dont get the show on the road, the opportunity will be lost.
2. In IA Cruz got 8 delegates, Trump and Rubio each got 7. Carson 3. Paul 1 (so count Cruz 9, not 8). NH has even fewer delegates tan IA. SC has as many as IA and NH combined. NV then has a few.
But the SEC primary (that includes some non-SEC states) has the jackpot. Before SEC it is bogus to say anyone is in the lead. Pre-SEC the role is to weed out the Santorums and Pauls...and Jebs, not to define a leader.
The SEC will then define a leader.