Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (RCP Poll Averages)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 1/12/15 | RCP

[JSDude1]

Nope

[Guenevere]

He told Morning Joe and the folks at Java Joe in Iowa that he didn’t have sleep......and I believe him....

...but he was sharp sharp sharp, witty, spiffy looking and engaged!!!
This man is energy plus plus!

[Dr. Sivana]

Well, good for Ted, but you know how this works. If Ted loses three of the first four primary states, which he's likely to do, he's done

Cruz does know how it works, and three of the first four primaries are nowhere NEAR New York. The poster was simply rebutting the statement that Cruz isn't winning anywhere but maybe Iowa. A ten point deficit in SC and Nevada can easily be made up after poor showings by Caraon and Huckabee in Iowa. It is too early to call those states. Trump remains strong in NH, and Rubio, John Ellis Bush and Christie Re fighting among themselves over who gets to be Cinderella's ugly step-sister there.

[Pollster1]

If you believe this, only Trump or Cruz could actually win. Rubio and Carson are competing for bragging rights that they did well in the caucus, so they must be serious contenders. The rest are footnotes.

And poor, sad Jeb is still wondering what happened. It’s his turn. Doesn’t anyone else know that?

[ripnbang]

Must be the Pizza Ranch crowd....

[ripnbang]

The California poll was Jan 6....got any recent/relevant data?

[over3Owithabrain]

Cruz has been exposed as just another phony politician. His shtick is to play the Christian conservative to those deemed yahoos. Problem is while decrying gay values he attends Big Gay Fundraisers and while decrying sellout politicians he has a huge Goldman Sachs receipt on his phony flannel work shirt.

Cruz is fading fast. Trump did another service to America by exposing this fraud.

[grania]

There was something else that made me nervous. Cruz got his start with GWB in Texas, and his campaign was beginning to feel a bit like GWB’s the first time. GWB has that Yale-Harvard background, which we ignored as he fooled us into thinking he was a USA-first conservative. Won’t get fooled again by a contrived narrative.

[lovesdogs]

Agreed. Mr Trump reminds me of the boss who exudes authority, the man you would not dream of defying. Sen Cruz is the boss who gets so lost in the weeds of convincing everyone that he is right that he never notices that his people all take three hour lunches. I suspect that we would hear an awful lot of constitutional lessons every time a president Cruz failed to deliver.

[montag813]

All the Cruz-up polls are old. And Reuters this morning shows a big shift to Trump after the debate.

[montag813]

Yes, Iowa is the only state where Cruz is close. Because he has spent most effort in Iowa and has the advantage of 56% majority of caucus goers being evangelical Christians.

Is that why he quoted Scripture twice in his last Hannity interview? Seemed odd the 2nd time.

[montag813]

Ted Cruz’s Surge is Real: Now Leads in California

Not sure if Field will update their CA poll next week. Cruz leads by 2 well within the margin of error.

[Windflier]

Cruz does know how it works, and three of the first four primaries are nowhere NEAR New York.

Forget about New York. Cruz hasn't been strong in any of the early primary states. That's where he needs to do well to gather any sort of momentum.

Given his polling numbers, he needs to place at least 2nd in at least three of the first four states, in order to have any hope of improving his odds in the others.

Unlike the usual campaign stink bombs, the NBC issue isn't just going to fade away in a week or two. It's far too important to be swept under the rug, and voters' perceptions of Cruz's eligibility will be affected by it, like it or not.

It's going to hurt him, and he's got no headroom in his support to lose a single supporter.

[entropy12]

At the end of the day, Rafael Cruz is just another career politician, completely in the pockets of his rich donors, including Golden Sachs. One donor alone, Robert Mercer has donated $31 million to Rafael Cruz. I do not trust Rafael.

[entropy12]

Iowa is NOT a must win for Trump. Every one and his uncle knows Iowa is evangelical hotbed, and less than 3% of Iowans caucus in repub side. All Trump needs to do in Iowa is finish close 2nd. Trump is well ahead in next 20 primary states.