Posted on 12/27/2015 2:43:13 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Let’s play Fun with Math, starring the Trumpistas!
Most everybody is saying that Cruz is rolling in Iowa, but let’s say he manages to only pull 30,000 votes, 20% fewer than Huck got in 2008. (I don’t recall Huckster having rallies that were any better than Cruz’s, but they weren’t any worse, either.) Let’s further stretch your “analysis” that this represents 100% of Cruz’s support. Trump, then, would need 30,001 votes to win. Further assuming your “analysis” is correct and that this amounts to only 10% of Trump’s total support, we can then extrapolate that the Donald’s Iowa base amounts to 3 million people...in other words, every registered Republican, but also every Democrat, as well as every other man, woman, and child in the state.
Hell of a coalition you got there.
...As I’ve said before in my criticism of caucuses in general, this method of choosing a nominee leaves much to be desired, in no small part because it makes it difficult for those who lack transportation, or who have health issues, small children for whom they cannot arrange babysitting, or who work an evening or night shift to participate in the process at all. Because of this, turnout for caucuses is typically a fraction of the numbers of people who participate in a primary or General Election...
This is why I hate caucuses and am so angry Nevada switched to them. My precinct had almost 100% voter turn out in primaries, now it is down to almost none. Not because they don’t want to vote, because they can’t get there and/or spend the time required now.
Yeah, sounds more like simple wishful thinking than a reasonable analysis.
If Cruz wins can we put an end to Ethanol subsidies?
Pray America wakes
Are you suggesting the folks at Trump’s events are actually Cruz supporters? Not likely.
I actually suspect Trump and others will get out fairly even and consist amounts of their supporters. That means more for Trump. I only suggest the 10% to emphasize the gross difference in sizes between the candidates turnout.
Now you are talking about McGovern in the national polls, not the primaries and caucuses. Two very different things and a lot changed over that year.
Trump has done at least a dozen rallies in Iowa (probably more) with between 7,000 and 15,000 people. Let's use 10,000 as an average and so 120,000 people. And I'm being very conservative with my figures. If just 25% of those people go to the caucus and vote for Trump, that will equal the 30,000 Santorum got in 2012.
I feel that the Cruz people are being overly optimistic and are setting the bar quite high for themselves. They are also setting themselves up for a disappointment because their expectations are for a resounding Cruz victory with Trump finishing in the back of the pack because they feel he has "no ground game".
Trump has Chuck Laudner running his Iowa campaign for him (the same guy who engineered Santorum's victory) and so I know that Trump is getting good advice from a proven winner. I think Trump has a ground game and a good organization in Iowa.
While I'm a Trump supporter, I am also very please with how well Ted Cruz is doing there. For me, it's the best of both worlds. Trump and Cruz could come out of Iowa with pretty much all the delegates, freezing the GOPe out completely. I would love to see that and it would blow my mind.
However, bear in mind that not all is what it seems in Iowa. For even though Santorum "won" the caucus in 2012, ultimately the lion's share of the delegates were awarded to Ron Paul, who received 22 delegates to Romney's six. Santorum ended up with zero delegates. This was because the 2012 caucus required that supporters appeared at a later convention in order to determine delegates.
Also, there were 8 precincts in Iowa in 2012 that were never counted. So a lot of strangeness with these Iowa caucuses.
They promise us that the weirdness of 2012 won't be repeated in 2016 but I don't trust the establishment GOPe for a minute to do the right thing. Whether you are a Trump supporter or a Cruz supporter, I would not get overly optimistic at this point. The best possible result would be for BOTH Trump and Cruz to win so decisively that they claim all the delegates for themselves.
Steve works for the Cruz campaign so I’ll take what he has to say with a pinch of salt... With that said Cruz is going to dominate Iowa unless there’s a scandal... And this is Cruz we’re talking about.
The way I see it: Cruz - Iowa, Trump NH/SC, Rubio - Nevada.
Super-Tuesday may all but settle this thing... buckle up!
There aren’t any Ethanol Subsidies, there is a Fuel Mandate requiring use of Ethanol. Two different things.
Nobody will end it. The Congress critters from the Midwest live and die with the Ethanol Lobby.
We will see.
Trump is going to take Iowa in a blow out.
No one has any idea what he is doing except Trump and his lieutenants.
I absolutely love the fact that people are underestimating Trump once again. In the last 6 months Trump has been underestimated and he has trounced everyone.
Trump is being underestimated yet again. That is perfect. He will win Iowa in a blow out!
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