Posted on 12/21/2015 1:25:53 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Of course, predictions are easy to make. If you end up right, you can boast. If youâre wrong, no one remembers, so it doesnât matter. But, arguably, the numbers point to a Trump victory in 2016.
National polling of Republican voters gives Trump twice the support of his closest rival. For example, a Fox News poll has Trump at 39 percent with second-place Ted Cruz at 18 percent. We all thought Trump was a summer sensation, then a sideshow with a low ceiling, but now heâs pressing steadily upward.
The mood of the country puts Democrats at a disadvantage. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows 70 percent of respondents think the country is headed in the wrong direction. There is more to the general direction of things than government policy, but the figure indicates heavy dissatisfaction with the status quo. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows President Obama with only a 43 percent approval rating and a 52 percent disapproval rating. Seventy-three percent of Americans, according to the NBC/WSJ poll, want an approach to governing other than Obamaâs. This is bad news for Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee and the partyâs quintessential establishment candidate with close ties to the Obama administration.
The Fox News poll also shows terrorism as the No. 1 concern of registered voters, jumping from 11 percent in August to 27 percent in December, displacing the economy and jobs from the top spot. The NBC/WSJ poll has everything fading in significance compared to national security and terrorism, up from 21 percent to 40 percent as a focus of voter concern following the Paris and San Bernardino terror attacks. This turns attention to where the Obama administration is seen as weak and where Clinton, Obamaâs former secretary of state, is deeply vulnerable. She has no accomplishment of note and her reset button with Russia and the Benghazi debacle associate her with weakness and incompetence. So it is no surprise she has been distancing herself from Obamaâs foreign policy.
People are scared, and radical Islamic terrorist activity here at home is unlikely to diminish as a public concern. While Trumpâs proposed temporary ban on Muslim immigration is unpopular, Clintonâs reality-denying statements like, âMuslims ⦠have nothing whatsoever to do with terrorismâ will drive people to support Trump. Almost 50 percent of Republicans in the Fox News poll think Trump would be most effective against ISIS.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Clinton four points ahead of Trump in a hypothetical matchup, a statistical tie. But Trump has demonstrated an ability to move numbers in surprising ways. He has a knack for reading the public. He will appear authentic in contrast to Clintonâs political posing. But expect him to tone down his rhetoric as he moves toward the convention to capture the middle in November.
I donât trust Donald Trump for reasons I have stated, but at times he moves me, and I can see people in the semi-aware political middle forgiving his past excesses if he changes his presentation in the summer of â16. Otherwise, given present concerns, people will choose the brute over the scold.
But politics are full of surprises. The currently surging Ted Cruz would match The Donald in a two-man GOP race, and the FBI may yet put Clinton in handcuffs for mishandling top-secret information. Political prognosticating cannot be an exact science.
If trump is the nominee, he loses to Hillary.
the FBI may yet put Clinton in handcuffs for mishandling top-secret information.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Dreamer. The lefty Obama fix is in and the FBI can’t touch Clinton.......unless she loses the election.
Maybe the next president will put Clinton behind bars, just like she did to Wes Hubble ( the father of her only child) and the White Water take-the-fall gang.
Clinton, like Obama, is a clear and present danger to the nation as a treasonous POS.
Hey weeny -,
What a tool! Who cares about your weasel brain thinks?
Aren’t you clever....reflexive insults instead of reasoned argument. Just like your boy trump.
“If trump is the nominee, he loses to Hillary.”
If Trump is the nominee, Hillary doesn’t win NY, NJ and possibly the entire rust belt. The unions may like Hillary, but Trump is the one who pays their salaries with his construction projects. He understands how unions work and will be tough but fair with them.
The muni’s are a completely different animal.
If Cruz is the candidate....Hillary wins.
You are correct and Trump just might also win several of the New England states as well; perhaps even Pa. !
I wouldn’t bet on Trump losing to Hillary. She’s had virtually no attention paid to her because HE has commanded all the attention. Once she’s out there, she will wear thin very fast.
Her screeching voice will be a turn off. Most people already see her as a liar. Folks may be nervous about the things Trump says (while secretly agreeing with him) but they don’t think of him as a liar.
Like your “reasoned argument”? Are you aware you are a self-parody?
I will have to go with Occum’s Razor in this one. The most likely scenario is usually the correct one. Most likely DJ Trump will be the next President of the US. God willing and the crick don’t rise. :-)
It doesn’t matter how many times you and others say Trump is going to win against Hillary....your “opinion” is not supported in any poll right now.
In almost all the national polls, Trump is behind Hillary.
In some cases he is very far behind (Fox News 11 behind).
His favorable/unfavorable/negatives is consistently worse than the other Republican candidates...and his negatives are very close to Hilary’s.
In the Fox News poll (compared to Cruz) Trump gets no more (at least any significant) crossover vote, or African American vote than Cruz.
Cruz gets more under 35 votes than Trump.
Your opinion at this point is just an opinion and no matter how much you or others say Trump is a lock against Hillary doesn’t make it so.
Polls can change, but I have yet to see consistent poll numbers suggesting Trump beats Hillary.
If you are so confident that Trump is already president elect, why do you feel the the need to come here and tell us that all the time.
I would think you have better things to do...like making plans to attend his inauguration in January 2017.
I’m a multi tasker. I can promote Trump and sew my inaugural gown at the same time. :-)
The polls that I have seen, show that Trump is now getting at the least, 25% of the black vote. Cruz isn't getting anything like that.
Trump is getting a LOT of disaffected Dem voters' votes. Cruz? No, he isn't getting those.
Trump's negatives have fallen greatly, so I suggest that you keep abreast of the latest polls.
My opinion, unlike yours' and many of the pundits' and talking heads' is based on facts, knowledge, political history, and yes, also my gut feelings; but, mostly all of the former and just a tiny bit of the last one.
I highly doubt that you ever watched the Lazio V Hillary debate. I did. You should see if you can find it on line somewhere and watch it.
then there's the media. They like him now - because he generates ratings and they can use him to ignore or hammer other R candidates. As soon as he's the nominee, they will come after him. Same as they did McCain. He was their favorite republican as long as he was poking Bush in the eye. After the nomination, he never knew what hit him. That he didn't expect this showed he was to stupid to be president. Trump is an easy target....top 1%, out of touch billionaire, offshoring jobs, questionable business practices, bankruptcy, divorce.....the media will have him for lunch. True, he handles them better than most republicans. Now. But when their mission is to get the wicked witch of the east into the White House, there is no limit to how low they will stoop. All they need to do is convince the morons to vote Hillary....same as they convinced then to vote Obama.
Also, he has no reasoned arguments or positions on anything....it's all shoot-from the hip bumper sticker thinking. He resorts to insults and put downs and telling us how great he is, like an 8-year old on the playground. In the past he's supported open borders/amnesty, socialized medicine, gun control, the Kelo decision. He's donated to the Clintons and Harry Reid.
He's used to being the boss - a dictator of sorts. What he says, goes. He snaps his fingers and people jump. That'll work real well. I honestly don't think he wants to be president. He's like a dog chasing a car. He has no idea what to do with it when he catches it. He loves the attention and adoration. He's every bit the narcissist Obama is. I can see him getting the nomination and throwing the fight. Or at least not caring if he wins or loses.
This all smells like president Hillary to me.
Ok.
Could you give me links to those polls showing Trump getting that much of the African American vote...or the crossover Dem votes.
Also in the last Fox News poll...Trump is basically tied with Hillary with the independent voters.
I do remember Lazio getting killed by the media for bullying a woman...
Hillary and the media will pull that card on Trump also if he goes too far.
My hope would be that Hillary is unelectable no matter who she is running against.
There are still six weeks till the primaries begin, and changes can occur. No one at the race track gives up hope and tears up his ticket if his horse is only in second place before the horses start coming down the home stretch.
However, there are two polling figures that seem relatively solid and important — Hillary at 56% vs. Bernie Sanders at 30%.
Bernie represents the Democratic wing of the Democratic party — the socialist center of passion among Democratic voters. Hillary can’t win the presidency without Bernie’s voters, and she can’t win Bernie’s voters without including him as the vice-presidential candidate on her ticket. However, she can’t include him on her ticket and still win the presidency because Bernie is a Socialist whom the vast majority of Americans would reject.
Hillary can’t win.
Yes, Hillary has the mainstream media fighting on her behalf, and she has hundreds of millions of dollars to promote her candidacy — yet those extraordinary advantages have not prevented an old white-haired Bolshevik warhorse from winning 30% of Democratic party support. And she has only managed to secure a bare majority, 56%, for her own candidacy.
Of course, the pro-Hillary media will never say a discouraging word about their favorite candidate. But they can’t help her avoid reality.
They may like the ratings, but the media doesn’t “like” Trump in the way the liked McCain. I think you severely underestimate his appeal to independents and what used to be called Reagan Democrats (who will soon be known as Trump Democrats). And I think you underestimate Trumps ability to manipulate the media. I suggest you watch Scott Adams’ analysis which I think is spot on.
https://reason.com/reasontv/2015/10/06/donald-trump-is-a-master-wizard
IMHO Trump will crush Hillary when it is one on one. She is terrible at everything Trump is great at, and utterly unfamiliar with dealing with the kind of attack Trump will hit her with.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.