Posted on 11/28/2015 1:51:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
America’s short-term Trump problem will end in Iowa.
As I wrote yesterday, I think America is facing a two-fold Trump problem. The proximate problem is that Donald Trump has been the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination since this summer, and the durability of his support suggests that he could in fact be the party’s nominee. The underlying problem is that America has a two-party political system, and one of the parties is receptive to a candidate such as Trump.
I don’t have a solution to the latter problem. But the former problem, the proximate Trump problem, is going to be resolved soon enough, as follows: Ted Cruz is now tied with Trump in Iowa. On February 1st, if not before, Trump’s dreams of winning the White House will be destroyed. To unpack that, let me review what we know about Trump and Cruz.
Trump is a candidate whose entire pitch, such as it is, rests on the illusion that he is a winner. He claims to be a successful businessman; in reality, he would have been better off investing the money he inherited in an index fund forty years ago. He claims to know more about ISIS “than the generals doâ€; in reality, the little he knows about the armed services is drawn from his experience at a military-themed boarding school. He thinks that he has “better†hair than Marco Rubio; I mean, can a sentient adult offer a straight-faced response to that?
We already know how Trump responds when his braggadocio is exposed for the posturing it is: he lashes out. He’s still brooding about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, who committed the cardinal sin of asking him questions during a debate. When Ben Carson challenged his status as frontrunner in the polls, Trump responded by flapping his belt around and comparing Carson to a child molester.
Cruz, meanwhile, is a student of Sun Tzu: “Every battle is won before it is fought. It is won by choosing the terrain on which the battle is fought.†He has won unwinnable arguments before. He has won unwinnable elections before. Cruz does not pick fights he doesn’t think he can win, with the asterisk that sometimes he picks fights with an eye to winning the battle rather than the war. His fight to defund Obamacare, for example, was a fight he picked with an eye to winning the Republican nomination in 2016. And Cruz is now in a position to win the Iowa caucus, which is the kind of fight that he is optimally equipped to win: like Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008, his support in the polls is an indicator of the passion of the grassroots conservatives, particularly evangelicals, he has carefully cultivated throughout this campaign.
Trump has two choices. He can withdraw from the race for the Republican nomination prior to Iowa’s vote, on February 1st. If so, he sacrifices the prospect of running as an independent candidate. He pledged not to do so back in September, and has recently suggested (entirely predictably) that he might renege on that pledge. Trump’s stated reason for thinking about breaking his own pledge, however, was as follows: “GOP getting ready to treat me unfairly.†That would be a piteous situation. But for the voters of Iowa to select Cruz over Trump would hardly qualify as unfair treatment on the part of the establishment.
Alternatively Trump can take his chances against Cruz. If so he will come to grief, and he will have no one to blame but himself. Though Trump has more than a dozen rivals for the Republican nomination, none have come so close to earning his approval as Cruz has. Trump has even floated the idea of picking Cruz as his running mate. “Well, I like him,†Trump said last week, and that may be the case. Cruz is nonetheless running for the nomination, not to be Trump’s running mate, and Trump has no chance of dissuading the cold, careful Cruz from that goal.
You're not kidding.
Wishful think on Cruz. Trump support is not going away.
Erica must live under a rock.
It appears based upon some articles that Trump has got a ground game going and will
have some influence in the caucuses. Who knows but with his perceived national attention,
etc. Trump may have a chance at some of the caucus vote. It take commitment to spend a
couple hours on caucus night, listening to candidate supporters hailing the candidate
and then finally making your selections.
We'll see in about two months.
A Democrat will vote for Trump, but they are not going to vote for Cruz, who they consider far right.
My problem with Cruz is he voted for TPA and the Corker bill. He also said means testing Social Security was not off the table on a Hannity show. He also didn’t raise a fuss on the last thief of the Social Security trust fund to pay for Obama’s programs. His biggest donor is a hedge fund guy. I do not trust Cruz and never will. He wrote an article with Paul Ryan about how good the secret trade deal will be. I’m not falling for it anymore with the professional politicians.
One would be tempted to think you’d sent out a troll roll call, 2DV.
Must be Austin moonbats.
And they are almost half the electorate!
No, the problem is we have a party that will nominate criminals and traitors like Obama and Hillary. Trump is the solution.
Iowa is a silly beauty contest, not a primary. It's irrelevant. Ask Huckabee and Santorum. Trump may or may not win it, but he will sweep the actual primaries.
It’s actually too easy.
The Donald has amply demonstrated that his appeal is far broader than just to members of a caucus or the primary voters of relatively small states. It cuts across and goes way beyond party lines, tapping into something that has been simmering, no, seething for a long time - the elites do not listen to the people who make up the electorate.
Trying to brew up a feud between The Donald and Ted Cruz is an exercise in futility - first, because the contrasts and differences are not all that great, and secondly, because the only intent of such a feud would be to damage BOTH candidates in ways only the opposition party could take advantage of.
The objective, now and past Election Day, November 8, 2016, is to assure that Herself shall NOT succeed to office upon the departure of the Current Occupant. Not that it is formally announced, but the outlines of a likely path to the White House are beginning to emerge, and like the Immortals of “The Highlander” fame, there can be only one. There can be, however, some very good lieutenants put in place subsequent to the Republican National Convention, essentially a “Shadow Cabinet”, which would sweep in and take command immediately on Inauguration Day.
Do not do the “opposition research” for the competition.
Like this pencil d!ck of a writer has the brains to accomplish what Trump has and is now in a position to be the king maker. That is the problem in today’s liberal world. Liberals think that because they have a thought it is worth something when it is total garbage.
No kidding. Just. Wow.
Iowa really doesn’t matter...It’s New Hampshire that’s important...Cruz better hope Trump doesn’t drop out...He’ll miss his only chance at V.P...
Cruz may just win Iowa. He has a great ground game and plenty of money.
Cruz is the most conservative GOPe...He has no legitimate plan to bring jobs back to America except for the failed trickle down economics scheme...Cutting regulations on business is not going to be nearly enough to brings jobs back...
And although I'm on his side on the issue, attacking planned parenthood will shove away even moderate Republicans let alone Democrats...
The Texas Tribune is a far left publication. It tries to craft the public debate on the terms it prefers. Much of what is written in it is an attempt to shape the debate.
Back when I used to read it, so was the Tampa Tribune and it probably still is.
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