Posted on 09/25/2015 3:32:41 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Bobby Jindal and George Pataki are the next two quitters in the Republican field.
That’s the assessment of Republicans in the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire.
A quarter of Iowa Republicans say it’s Jindal, a frequent visitor to their state, who is on his way out.
"He's become desperate," an Iowa Republican said. "He's taken to attacking Trump (we know how that worked out for Perry and Walker) and has nothing going on here in Iowa."
Added another, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely: "He's taken the hard inside right lane, and there's simply too much competition there (Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum)."
But in New Hampshire, Pataki is considered most likely to drop out next, with 27 percent of Republican insiders there pointing to him.
"There comes a point when his irrelevance becomes crystal clear even to him," a New Hampshire Republican said.
"The Spice Girls were big in the 1990s, too, but no one wants to see them on a reunion tour," snarked another New Hampshire Republican.
Agreed a third, "The only question is why he wasn't out before Perry and Walker."
In both states, Rand Paul came in second. Several insiders said that at some point, Paul will need to focus on winning reelection to his Senate seat.
"Rand Paul’s campaign [reeks] of the same stench of death that surrounded the Perry and Walker efforts before their demise," said a New Hampshire Republican, who was one of 22 percent of those voters to name the Kentucky senator. "Paul’s polling is anemic, his fundraising is lagging, his campaign is disorganized and he is in danger of getting bumped off the main debate stage. He also has to consider when it’s time to cut bait and focus on running for reelection to the Senate. His time is running short."
Said an Iowa Republican of the Kentucky GOP: "KYGOP is going to pressure him to concentrate on the US Senate race. There is no path to victory for him in the presidential race."
"Paul's making no traction in the polls, and he's the only one who also faces re-election next year in a race that could unnecessarily complicate our Party's chances of holding the Senate majority," agreed a New Hampshire Republican.
"His dad came in second to Romney in the New Hampshire primary in 2012, but so far, Rand has shown no ability to win over those same supporters, or harness that same energy or get those same liberty-minded wing of the party behind his candidacy."
Democrats split on the questions between Jindal and Paul – 40 percent of Iowa Democratic insiders picked the Kentucky senator and 34 percent of New Hampshire Democrats named Jindal.
Said an Iowa Democrat who agreed with Republicans in the state that Jindal is on the way out, "Of the candidates who began this race with a realistic shot at being the next President, he is the one with the least traction and room for growth. Just like Walker, he has no path to break out of the polling oblivion and his fundraising will dry up soon just like Walker's did."
These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):
Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young
New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams
Cruz is comfortably in the rear but not struggling. Staying in helps him have sway further down. Right now Jindal is losing clout the longer he stays. Pataki is holding on as a favor to the GOPe but even he realizes it’s making him look foolish.
Nah Bob, I think your theory is correct.......Linda was put there to keep Cruz from pulling a Newt in SC this go round....because the estabs know that if Cruz does, he is too smart to do what Newt did in Florida and blow it.
Now of course, Trump has come in and blown up all the models....there’s hardly a paradigm he hasn’t shattered. The one paradigm, that it’s dangerous to peak too early, is still to be determined....but hell, he may shatter that one too.
Another thing has blown up the model....60% of South Carolinians like Linda as senator, but only 1% like him for the Oval. That was predictable, but not by the clueless GOP e.
I kinda like Gilmore - but was your post satire or serious?
That’s exactly why.
Pataki rather. (Sometimes I hate iOS autocorrect)
I was just telling my family that I thought Cruz was playing a patient game of chess waiting for Trump to loose his queen to a pawn.
Well not positive about anything other than the fact that A: the Cruz Super PAC is flush and biding their time (rightly or wrongly) and that B: these fund raising emails from all candidates all the time say the exact same thing. It’s always about an urgent fund raising or reporting deadline. No one EVER says “we’re ahead of projections, so please jump in.”
thus I would assume nothing either way based on the email blast. I do have sources that assure me he’s in good shape for a long haul. They may be right or wrong, but these are smart money people with insider access.
Funny you phrase it that way. A big time money supporter of TC told me weeks ago that "Cruz is playing chess" in this campaign. And I think that's right. However, Trump may have come in and made the game checkers, not chess.....so it may not work.
Think I’ll be a sucker and send Cruz a check again anyway.
That way I’ll not have pulled back my financial support of Cruz’ campaign at the wrong time by mistake.
Better certain than sorry, if I truly am going to be a small-time financial supporter.
And TC is still the only Presidential candidate I support financially.
I don't think Graham's poll numbers in SC are a whole lot better than his poll numbers nationally.
Oh, I fully encourage you to do that - campaigns can ALWAYS use a little more....whether they are really in trouble or just limping along or in good shape.
It’s a long slog. And TC is the only one I’d support financially too. I will support most of the others if they get the nomination, but not all.
I think we are just past the opening of the game. Two pawns are off the table and the power pieces are just positioning. I think there is a lot of game left and Trump is inexperienced in certain aspects. But he does know how to rally a crowd.
The thing I like about Trump is that he has an honesty that even the conservatives don't have. PC phrases like "Our friends across the aisle" are sickening. They are evil godless fiends and Trump is a little closer to actually calling them that. Now that would be some honesty.
As with the low numbers for the other establishment lapdogs in the race. Perhaps the plan crumbled. Do the elite have a clue how fed up we are and how much most 'pubs despise Jeb?
Cruz stands to win all of the 1% Jindal vote, and most of RuPaul’s. Cruz is ahead of “!” in a few polls, has a huge organization on the ground, and is sitting on a ton of cash, so I don’t see him dropping out before “!” at all.
I want Bush out
I think the six likely to stay in the longest are the three amateurs (Trump, Fiorina, and Carson) and the three with a shot at winning the nomination (Cruz, Rubio, and Bush). My top choice is Cruz.
No! No1 First they have to replace the latest sock puppet Media's new darling, who will unseat Trump.
Carly's starboard engine is starting to smoke, so Rubio is being warmed up. When he goes down, THEN it will be Jindal's turn, followed by Pataki. After those ploys have been wrung dry, they can quit, probably with a nice consoling campaign fund contribution.
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