Posted on 09/25/2015 3:32:41 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Bobby Jindal and George Pataki are the next two quitters in the Republican field.
That’s the assessment of Republicans in the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire.
A quarter of Iowa Republicans say it’s Jindal, a frequent visitor to their state, who is on his way out.
"He's become desperate," an Iowa Republican said. "He's taken to attacking Trump (we know how that worked out for Perry and Walker) and has nothing going on here in Iowa."
Added another, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely: "He's taken the hard inside right lane, and there's simply too much competition there (Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum)."
But in New Hampshire, Pataki is considered most likely to drop out next, with 27 percent of Republican insiders there pointing to him.
"There comes a point when his irrelevance becomes crystal clear even to him," a New Hampshire Republican said.
"The Spice Girls were big in the 1990s, too, but no one wants to see them on a reunion tour," snarked another New Hampshire Republican.
Agreed a third, "The only question is why he wasn't out before Perry and Walker."
In both states, Rand Paul came in second. Several insiders said that at some point, Paul will need to focus on winning reelection to his Senate seat.
"Rand Paul’s campaign [reeks] of the same stench of death that surrounded the Perry and Walker efforts before their demise," said a New Hampshire Republican, who was one of 22 percent of those voters to name the Kentucky senator. "Paul’s polling is anemic, his fundraising is lagging, his campaign is disorganized and he is in danger of getting bumped off the main debate stage. He also has to consider when it’s time to cut bait and focus on running for reelection to the Senate. His time is running short."
Said an Iowa Republican of the Kentucky GOP: "KYGOP is going to pressure him to concentrate on the US Senate race. There is no path to victory for him in the presidential race."
"Paul's making no traction in the polls, and he's the only one who also faces re-election next year in a race that could unnecessarily complicate our Party's chances of holding the Senate majority," agreed a New Hampshire Republican.
"His dad came in second to Romney in the New Hampshire primary in 2012, but so far, Rand has shown no ability to win over those same supporters, or harness that same energy or get those same liberty-minded wing of the party behind his candidacy."
Democrats split on the questions between Jindal and Paul – 40 percent of Iowa Democratic insiders picked the Kentucky senator and 34 percent of New Hampshire Democrats named Jindal.
Said an Iowa Democrat who agreed with Republicans in the state that Jindal is on the way out, "Of the candidates who began this race with a realistic shot at being the next President, he is the one with the least traction and room for growth. Just like Walker, he has no path to break out of the polling oblivion and his fundraising will dry up soon just like Walker's did."
These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):
Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young
New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams
There are a few in this race currently that must believe the nomination will be based on seniority not ability to win the general election. Kind of the Rolling Stones of the GOPe reunion tour that never ends.
Hehehehe
I keep hoping Karl will leave but then I don’t always get my way. That gasbag has been a problem for a long time. /preaching to the choir
I’m a (very minor) Cruz bundler so I’m given scraps of information from time to time. One lady here in Texas has (by herself) raised $1,448,625.71 ... now remember, this isn’t unlimited SuperPAC money. Donors are limited to $2,700 per individual, which makes her accomplishment even more astonishing.
Somebody told me they think Jebby will get it anyways.
To ensure a loss. I can’t say that’s not possible.
But I do know for sure the GOPe and its candidates have nothing for me. That is why I have absolutely no use for them.
I’m glad Cruz is in less trouble than I feared. I think the game plan is, because Cruz is brilliant and a real conservative, to slowly expose home to keep him relatable.
He’s very deep, perhaps a bit too deep for the average voter to understand. He will have a bit over a year to explain everything. He needs to generate more interest than he’s currently receiving.
Jonty I don’t disagree with a single syllable of what you said. These are literally uncharted political waters, and I worry about the plan too. But it is the plan, and he is solid to run that plan.
In the past, it would have worked for sure. Today? Not so sure.
Lots will have to get out now because, contrary to Establishment plans, the Establishment vote is being split, not the conservative vote.
They’re now switching gears and will be leaving Bush to get behind Rubio, who has always been their back-up candidate (Walker was also a possibility but he’s already out).
They’ll be behind Fiorina temporarily since she’s damaged Trump somewhat, but Bush and Rubio are their men. John Huntsman, I mean Kasich is going nowhere. And neither is Huckabee. The voters aren’t fooled by him either.
Can’t help but wonder if Graham’s in there to win his home state and throw those votes to Jeb. Same with Christie and Kasich.
Here's how I see it: It's South Carolina that scares the hell out of the GOP-e. The estabs know that after Newt routed the field by 13 points in 2012 in SC - the nomination was his unless they could get him off track. Newt being Newt - brilliant one minute and puzzling the next - got side tracked in Florida. Had Newt not gotten sidetracked in Florida, he probably wins that state by double digits too, and gets the nomination. The estabs know that SC normally does the opposite of Iowa/New Hampshire, but that Florida often does what SC does. This scares them sh-tless.
And regardless of what people say, it was OVER after Florida. Santorum never worried Mitt really, which is why Mitt's Super PAC funneled money to Santorum's PAC to keep him in the race and keep him attacking Newt.
All of that to say the estabs feared that Cruz could be the one to rout the field in SC originally - and now of course Trump is a huge threat to do that too. They hope enough conservative South Carolinians aren't paying attention and will go for their hometown boy, including the military vote in SC, and that those votes will take away from whoever the outsider in front is at the time.
Not gonna work, but I do think that's the plan....and you're close to nailing it.
My personal belief is that the GOPe uses the perennial candidates to draw support away from viable conservative candidates so that their candidate can win.
There is no other way to explain how candidates, like Santorum, can run viable campaigns otherwise.
Weren’t the ‘experts’ predicting that Trump would be the first out, once he finished off his rants?
“How long is Linda going to stay around? And is Gilmore still around?”
Linda’s job was to hold down Cruz’s numbers in SC, but that gets complicated with how little Linda himself is liked, and by having Trump in the race (i.e., even Cruz is preferable to Trump for the GOPe...until Trump can be driven from the race, that is).
Gilmore never really ran - no one can figure out his game - perhaps to run as a Third Party in Virginia next November to try to throw the election to Biden (Republicans do things like that in Virginia). But I’m open to other theories.
Gilmore to rise from 17th to 13th in just 3 or 4 weeks time? He could be top 10 and in the debates very soon.
I agree, Cruz will be around for a while. He seems content to either play a major role should Trump win, or be there to get a good chunk of people should Trump collapse. He’s got resources and unlike Walker and Rubio, he knows how to handle money.
He probably ran so that he could count on a lot of support when he defends his Senate seat.
Something (experience) tells me you are right. But and it is a big one, The Uniparty is in worse trouble than most will admit. Two huge reasons being, If either Trump or Carson is the nominee, Republicans will keep their money in the bank for 2020 and probably vote Democrat. Secret ballot, ya know. If Jeb or any of the GOPe candidates is the nominee, Conservatives keep their money and stay home.
I am starting to thing Cruz may be the only one that might be acceptable to both.
I voted for Paul in the last race for Senator. I will vote for one of his primary opponents this year.
Actually, I plan on voting against every incumbent this time. It’s long past time to shake them all up.
Those email blasts are written by professional fund raisers, not just Ted’s, but all of them. They may or may not have any relationship to the truth.
Partaking was running?
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