Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Hillary Clinton Cannot Afford to Lose Black Voters
National Journal ^ | June 3, 2015 | Emily Schultheis

Posted on 06/04/2015 4:06:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Turnout will drop compared to Obama's two elections, but she's about to roll out a policy platform aimed directly at African-American voters.

Barack Obama didn't need to do much—almost anything—to win record turnout from African-American voters. Hillary Clinton will need to pull out all the stops to score just a fraction of that support.

An exaggeration? Black political leaders don't think so.

"Make no mistake, there will be some drop-off," said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri, a former chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, whose comments echoed those of other influential African-American Democrats.

Indeed, black leaders concede it will be nearly impossible for Clinton to replicate the level of turnout Obama's candidacy generated among this core demographic—a group of voters central to the national coalition necessary for a Democrat to win the White House. So she'll need to coax them to the polls by honing specific messages about policies relevant to the black community, something her team says she's preparing to unveil.

On Thursday, Clinton will call for expanded early voting in every state, including weekend and evening hours over many days before Election Day—positions supported by Democrats who say working-class voters need greater access to the polls.

And she'll specifically criticize laws in North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin that, she argues, reduced rather than expanded access to the polls.

These are significant targets for Clinton. Democrats have their eyes on changing demographics in counties in North Carolina, Texas, and elsewhere that might begin to shift those states away from Republicans, perhaps as soon as 2016.

Black voters, specifically, are growing as a share of the electorate in many states. But while pollsters think Clinton will win them by similar margins to Obama—95 percent of African-Americans voted for the president in 2012—her team should not underestimate the challenge she will have motivating African-Americans to show up when the first black president isn't at the top of the ticket.

In 2012, the U.S Census Bureau estimated that just more than 66 percent of eligible black voters showed up at the polls—the highest turnout ever for this demographic group, higher even than turnout among whites. Indeed, Obama's support among black voters "went off the charts," said Brookings demographer William Frey—enough so that minority turnout, especially black turnout, was a deciding factor in the president winning a second term.

And in states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, a difference in turnout of even a few percentage points could have big repercussions, Frey added.

"You could call it the excitement factor," he said. "At least in these states … where blacks are a huge part of the minority population, she's going to need that."

In other words, unlike Obama, Clinton will really have to work for high black turnout.

"I can't in all honesty say that she will receive the same level of support as an African-American president," said Rep. Marcia Fudge of Ohio, "but clearly I do believe that if her message is strong she can get close."

Late last week, Clinton appointed LaDavia Drane, the former executive director of the CBC, as her African-American-outreach director. Drane joins a staff at Clinton's Brooklyn headquarters with several other high-profile African Americans among its ranks, including Marlon Marshall, the director of state campaigns; Maya Harris, a top policy adviser; and Karen Finney, a senior spokeswoman.

Harris, sister of California Democratic Senate candidate Kamala Harris and formerly of the Center for American Progress, has done research specifically on encouraging greater turnout of minority women, and she argued that they are a reliable voting bloc when they're given strong policy reasons to vote. That's true of black voters overall, she noted, and is part of the campaign's calculus.

"One thing we know is that issues matter—that at the end of the day, whether [African-American] voters are going to turn out is going to depend on whether they have been motivated to turn out," Harris told National Journal. "Secretary Clinton is well-situated to do that, both in terms of what she has already demonstrated in her life's work and in the issues she's talking about."

That motivation will come partly from policy proposals and partly from focusing on parts of Clinton's biography, the campaign says. Speaking in South Carolina last week, she put deliberate focus on her early career experiences at the Children's Defense Fund and her work for women and children. The campaign is also talking about specific policy positions that are relevant to the black community—health care, a minimum-wage increase, substance-abuse issues, and perhaps most noticeably, criminal-justice reform, which Clinton addressed in a speech at Columbia back in April. Clinton aides are quick to note that it was her first policy speech as a candidate—and with its proposals to provide body cameras for police officers nationwide and end the "era of mass incarceration," it was a direct response to unrest over police activity in Baltimore and other cities.

"Her speech in New York was amazing," said Bakari Sellers, a former South Carolina state legislator who backed Obama in 2008 but is now supporting Clinton. "It's a serious plank in terms of African-American outreach, it's one that can be developed, it's one that can help galvanize not just your typical participants … but also a new generation of voices."

The other key piece of necessary strategy is the ground game. Cleaver said African-American leaders are welcoming signs from Clinton that her team will build a robust turnout operation in urban areas, which is something Obama—whose candidacy was naturally a source of excitement to many black voters—didn't need to do. Clinton's 2016 team, with campaign manager Robby Mook at the helm, is placing heavy emphasis on grassroots strategy; it has sizable field teams in the four early states.

"The president did not have to do a lot in the urban core, and didn't—he used his resources elsewhere," Cleaver said. "So I think you're going to find elected officials celebrating the fact that there's a great deal of attention being paid to the ground game."

That starts in South Carolina, the only one of the four early states with a large African-American population. Clinton's campaign has hired a team of staffers and field organizers—including state director Clay Middleton and state political director Jalisa Washington, both of whom are African Americans with strong ties to the state's politics. A half-dozen field organizers are already in place in the state, focusing on traditionally African-American neighborhoods and gathering places as they start to introduce themselves and the campaign to the state's voters.

"We are going to where the voters are. So we are in faith-based communities, we are at churches, we are at several social-justice organizations," Middleton said. "We have field organizers that look like the community and understand the community and can relate to those individuals."


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: blacks; blackvote; hillary; hillary2016
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-27 next last

1 posted on 06/04/2015 4:06:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

2 posted on 06/04/2015 4:07:56 PM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

#HillarySoOld she owned slaves....


3 posted on 06/04/2015 4:08:24 PM PDT by Paladin2 (Ive given up on aphostrophys and spell chek on my current device...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Hence the vile race baiting speech she gave on “voting rights”.

Folks, Bill Clinton told a black church that Bob Dole somehow represented church bombings (done by democrats, of course), when some polls showed blacks might not turn out in the election.

These are evil evil people and we need someone to stand up to them.


4 posted on 06/04/2015 4:09:52 PM PDT by Williams
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

So the liberal press admits that blacks will overwhelmingly vote only for people who look like them. Interesting.


5 posted on 06/04/2015 4:11:51 PM PDT by Menehune56 ("Let them hate so long as they fear" (Oderint Dum Metuant), Lucius Accius (170 BC - 86 BC))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2
#HillarySoOld she owned slaves...

She still does. They are called the LIV's!

6 posted on 06/04/2015 4:12:01 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Williams

I wish we had a world-class debater and litigator running. Oh, well...


7 posted on 06/04/2015 4:12:27 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You can help: https://donate.tedcruz.org/c/FBTX0095/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Black lives haven’t mattered to the current _resident. His assistance to illegal aliens has directly increased black unemployment.


8 posted on 06/04/2015 4:23:04 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Is she going to promise them another city to burn?


9 posted on 06/04/2015 4:31:18 PM PDT by minnesota_bound
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
"Hillary hated on you so that bitch is irrelevant"

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Rapper 'Ludacris'

Lyrics to Ludacris' Obama rap song, "Obama Is Here":

"Hey... I'm back on it

like I just signed my record deal, yeah the best is here

The Bentley Coupe paint is drippin wet, it got sex appeal

Never shoulda hated, you never shoulda doubted him

With a slot in the President's iPod, Obama shouted him

Said I handled my biz and I'm one of his favorite rappers

Well give Luda a special pardon if I'm ever in the slammer

Better yet put me in office, make me a Vice President

Hillary hated on you so that bitch is irrelevant

Now Jesse talkin slick and apologizin for WHAT~?!

If you said it then you MEANT it how you want it, head or gut

And all you other politicians tryin to hate on my man

Watch us win majority vote in every STATE on my man

You cain't stop what's 'bout to happen, we 'bout to make history

The first black President it's destined and it's meant to be

The threats ain't fazin us, the nooses or the jokes

Get off your ass black people it's time to get out and vote

Paint the White House black and I'm sure that's got 'em terrified

McCain don't belong in ANY chair unless he's paralyzed

Yeah I said it cause Bush is mentally handicapped

Ball up all of his speeches and just throw 'em like candy wraps

Cause what you talkin I hear nothin even relevant

And you the worst of all 43 Presidents

Get out and vote, or the end'll be near

And the world is ready for change cause Obama is here

YEAHHH! Cause Obama is here

The world is ready for change cause Obama is here

Yeahhhh, cause Obama is here

Say world is ready for change cause Obama is here

Hey!

http://lyrics.rapbasement.com/Ludacris_Politics%20(Obama%20Is%20Here)_lyrics_2129.html

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

YouTube video: Ludacris - "Obama Is Here":
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_type=&search_query=ludacris+obama+is+here&aq=0&oq=ludacris+obama

10 posted on 06/04/2015 4:52:17 PM PDT by ETL (ALL (most?) of the Obama-commie connections at my FR Home page: http://www.freerepublic.com/~etl/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

OH CRAP!!!


11 posted on 06/04/2015 4:54:44 PM PDT by Din Maker (2016 Campaign Slogan: "If you like Obama, you'll love Hillary.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ETL

Cole Porter is rolling over in his grave.

This guy is pathetic.

.


12 posted on 06/04/2015 4:55:47 PM PDT by Mears
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Is she ‘talking’ like them yet?????


13 posted on 06/04/2015 4:59:13 PM PDT by HarleyLady27 (Get the USA out of the UN then get the UN out of the USA; send bamaboy back to Kenya ASAP!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
It depends on whether Obama campaigns for Hillary, doesn't it? Obama is basically campaigning against the Republicans right now.

14 posted on 06/04/2015 5:24:31 PM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion ('Liberalism' is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Fat chance =>


15 posted on 06/04/2015 5:27:12 PM PDT by Ken H
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Moochelle for veep?


16 posted on 06/04/2015 6:47:45 PM PDT by Organic Panic
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Saw the clip from Hillary’s screech at Texas Southern. She has the Adolph Hitler style down pat. I can see why she is trying to avoid TV. She looks as bad as she sounds.


17 posted on 06/04/2015 7:31:57 PM PDT by txrefugee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: txrefugee
She looks as bad as she sounds.

The Hillary picture on Drudge ATT shows the lack onf finesse in her plastic surgeries. Somewhat reminiscent of Jack Nicholson's Joker, IMO.

18 posted on 06/04/2015 7:59:42 PM PDT by Calvin Locke
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Look for liberal attempts to put measure and propositions on ballots (where allowed) that appeal to Black voters.

The hope being that if the Blacks don't show up for Hillary, they'll show up to support measures that aim to counter what they consider to be racist policies.

19 posted on 06/04/2015 9:18:01 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

So, here ‘plan’ to corral Blacks back onto the DNC Plantation is to tell them a bunch of SCARY GOP stories, like:
- they don’t want you to vote
- they don’t want to give you handouts
- they don’t want to feed, clothe, and shelter you
- they don’t want you to have abortions
- they don’t want you to be gay
- they aren’t like you, but I am
- they are old racist white men - probably own slaves

This trick played to a half empty area Thursday at Texas Southern University in Houston - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3111535/Hillary-Clinton-plays-raucous-HALF-arena-black-university-claims-opponents-want-disempower-disenfranchise-people-color.html


20 posted on 06/05/2015 5:27:55 AM PDT by yosephdaviyd
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-27 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson