Why Ted Cruz Is Such a Long Shot

The New York Times' The Upshot ^ | March 23, 2015 | Nate Cohn

[2ndDivisionVet]

In nearly every presidential primary, a few candidates attract a lot of news media attention even though they have almost no chance to win the nomination. Sometimes they even lead national polls or win states, but invariably their appeal is too narrow to allow them to build the broad coalition necessary to unite a diverse party.

Ted Cruz, the Texas senator and Tea Party favorite, who on Monday became the first major candidate to formally enter the race, has seemingly been on track for this role since he first ran for the Senate in 2012. He is the darling of conservatives in a conservative party. But he remains a long shot, at best.

The most interesting question about Mr. Cruz’s candidacy is whether he has a very small chance to win or no chance at all.

Political scientists argue that the single most important determinant of the outcome of the nomination is support from party elites: those operatives who can staff a winning campaign; the donors who fund it; the elected officials and interest group leaders who bestow the credibility necessary to persuade voters and affect media coverage....

[2ndDivisionVet]

Want to bet this was written weeks ago?

[BerniesFriend]

Political scientists argue that the single most important determinant of the outcome of the nomination is support from party elites: those operatives who can staff a winning campaign; the donors who fund it;

Good point..ask President Dole, President McCain and President Romney about that support..

[Verginius Rufus]

Nate Cohn writes for The New York Times and he doesn't know better than to split infinitives?

[JustaCowgirl]

We need to start locating all the identical articles and statements that were made about Reagan and start bringing them into the light of day.

[cripplecreek]

Political scientists argue that the single most important determinant of the outcome of the nomination is support from party elites

And there is one of the biggest problems with the party.

[fatnotlazy]

And probably at the direction of the White House propaganda ministry.

[Pelham]

It was written weeks ago by Republican establishment hacks who want Jeb Bush or one of his clones.

[Organic Panic]

Looks like Jen just sent his MS Word templates out to the media.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Explain Reagan and Goldwater then.

[John 3_19-21]

That’s racist!

[petercooper]

We don’t need no stinkin elites!

[Batman11]

“The New York Times’”

That is as far as I read!

[arthurus]

He is still a long shot for the Nomination and shoud he get that, the election.
Jeb Bush is still alive.
The illegals are still out their waiting for their citizenship and voting rights that will probably happen in the next 10-12 months. As non citizens they still have their drivers' licenses and have been therewith registered to vote regardless of their Citizenship status, and they will vote, some several times. And Soros counts the votes from the touch screen machines.
Yes, a long shot, indeed.

[Olog-hai]

Perhaps years.

They are certainly panicking.

[Engraved-on-His-hands]

Something that is seldom mentioned is that, even on the Democratic side, the establishment candidate is not always the winner and are sometimes defeated by relative unknowns. Ted Kennedy was defeated by Jimmy Carter. Hillary Clinton was defeated by Barack Obama.

Rick Santorum’s shoestring campaign in Iowa four years ago might be instructive, too.

[2ndDivisionVet]

They (Main Stream Media) better not put a microphone in Ted Cruz’s hand, or even allow him on a stage to speak to a large crowd. Otherwise, there will be no stopping him. It’s called the Left vs Right paradigm and they (media and central banks) always choose the Candidates on both sides to ensure they get what they want elected. Have you ever been to a Harlem Globetrotters game? Same thing. Would not be surprised to see Cruz take the lead then have an “unfortunate accident” if he continues to do well.

[cripplecreek]

Ya know, you’re right

I’m just going to give up and sit the next election out.

[taxcontrol]

Seems to me I remember hearing the same type of story written about a little known actor named Reagan.

[jacknhoo]

NYT’s yellow journalism doesn’t even pique my interest enough to read the first paragraph.

[TADSLOS]

That pesky little rebellion in the British colonies of America was a long shot, too.