Will Jeb stumble in Iowa?

With no love lost for Jeb Bush among the Republican base, the Iowa caucuses could be an early stumbling block in his 2016 quest.

The former Florida governor’s business-friendly stances and willingness to criticize GOP hard-liners make him popular with the donor class. But the first-in-the-nation state hasn’t been kind to establishment candidates in recent years.

And just after he announced this week he’s “actively exploring” a president bid, some Iowa activists are already torching Bush’s credentials. “He's on the wrong side of every issue that matters most to conservatives right now,” said Steve Deace, an influential Des Moines-based conservative radio host.

Deace ripped Bush for his support for immigration reform and Common Core education standards as apostates to the conservative cause before saying he’d “bet my mortgage” against Bush performing well in Iowa.

“He's not just for amnesty, he's an apostle for it. He's a pitchman for Common Core, and there's more organized conservative opposition to Common Core on the ground than anything besides ObamaCare,” he said. “He offers nothing, truly nothing. I don't know why any who's even a modicum of a conservative would vote for him.”

The process is often dominated by the state’s large population of religious conservatives, and a pair of cash-poor candidates defeated better-organized and much better funded foes by tapping into voters’ frustration with the GOP elites the last two presidential races.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) pulled off a come-from-behind win over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) in 2008, while former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) edged Romney in 2012.

Iowa Republicans from across the party believe Bush may have a chance in the state if dedicates the time and energy to woo voters. But, they say he has a ton of work to do to convince Iowa conservatives that he’s one of them.

“His hurdles are going to be high,” said Bob Vander Plaats, an Iowa social conservative leader and former gubernatorial candidate.

Vander Plaats warned of “Bush fatigue” and said his immigration position “looks a lot like amnesty, not compassionate conservatism.”

The onetime Huckabee backer said Bush’s biggest problem was his education position.

“There are a lot of people that believe our schools have been hijacked by the federal government and they've lost local control. I just don't see anybody getting the nomination who advocates for Common Core,” said Vander Plaats.

It’s not impossible to win Iowa as the establishment favorite, even for those with some major policy disagreements with the base. Jeb’s brother George W. Bush proved that in 2000, and their father, George H.W. Bush, did before them when he defeated Ronald Reagan in Iowa in 1980.

Sen.-elect Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) pulled off a dominant primary win earlier this year by wooing both hardline conservatives and establishment figures. And Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) successfully led a recapture of the state GOP from the control of religious and libertarian activists last year, intent on making sure Iowa’s caucuses would be an amenable place for Republicans of all stripes.

Some say Bush’s conservative record as governor gives him a platform, while others point out that he’ll likely have the money to build a top-notch organization — and can draw on a crop of GOP organizers who cut their teeth working for his brother.

“There's a large contingent [of voters] that could support Jeb Bush while everyone else tries to outflank each other on the right,” said Iowa GOP strategist Tim Albrecht, Branstad’s former spokesman. “It's important for him to highlight what he was able to do as governor and what the actual results are.”

Republican candidates also haven’t had to win Iowa to win the nomination in recent years — neither Romney nor John McCain did, though both placed strongly in the state.But it's rare for a candidate to compete and fail badly in Iowa and still win the nomination.

Iowa strategists say to succeed, candidates don’t have to shed their so-called “establishment” appeal — but they do have to prove that they’re still strong conservatives and earn voters’ trust by traveling the state heavily.

Ultimately, Bush will need to talk a lot more about his record as governor and figure out how to better finesse disagreements with the base if he wants to succeed.

“I see no reason why Gov. Jeb Bush won't be very competitive, just as his brother was in 1999 and 2000,” said Dee Stewart, who was the Republican Party’s executive director during those caucuses. “He has an impressive record, he's regarded by those he worked with and for whom he governed as a solid conservative.”

Bush’s brother had strong ties with the state’s large evangelical Christian population as well as with more business-focused Republicans. Ernst had the quiet backing of Branstad and many in the state’s GOP establishment, but was also a proven conservative activist who left almost no room to be outflanked on her right. Her rise came at the expense of more-moderate businessman Mark Jacobs, who collapsed in the primary despite spending millions.

“Any candidate that's perceived as being establishment has to get in the trenches with Iowa conservatives and prove they have the credentials to be their favorite in the caucuses,” said GOP Iowa state Sen. David Johnson, a veteran of Iowa campaigns and a 2012 backer of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

It’s an open question whether Bush, who has regularly criticized conservatives in his party over the years, is ready to play nice and woo base voters. He’s continued to emphasize immigration and education, his two biggest problem areas, in recent interviews rather than focusing on his time as a conservative executive.

Also, his recent comments that GOP candidates should be willing to "lose the primary to win the general without violating your principles” indicate he’s happy to remain combative with the more conservative corners of his party.

Many in the state are skeptical whether Bush is ready for a crowded Republican field of candidates — including others competing for the “establishment” mantle, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and others who may be able to appeal to center-right voters.

“It's not going to happen for Jeb Bush here,” said one Iowa Republican official who’d been involved in helping his brother win the 2000 caucuses. “I just don't see him campaigning here and succeeding.”

That money makes the operation much easier. He can spend big bucks to trash the leading conservatives in each of the first primaries until they are exhausted and broke and still have sufficient for the later primaries when he is actually running. The donors have watched that process work several times and assume it will work like that again. Theheavy trash ads do have a deciding effect in that as each conservative fades the donors write more checks to Bush.

If I was advising Jeb, I would strive to keep 2 or 3 conservative candidates in the race as long as possible.

GOPe is very shrewd. Romney dropped out to clear path for McCain in 2008. A lone RINO will beat multiple conservatives every time.

Jeb does not need excessive amounts of money to win.
Dividing the conservative voters is much easier. There simply are not enough conservative voters in the country when they divide votes between multiple candidates.

Of course, loads of money never hurts any candidate.

In my fading old memory, Romney had a hard time crossing 30% in the early half primaries.

Of course the GOPe candidate will have lots of money. Because the GOPE supports only ONE candidate. They focus all their resources on just ONE candidate.

Any one of CRUZ, WALKER, PENCE, JINDAL will defeat Jeb Bush one on one, regardless of how much money Jeb has.

Combine all the votes Romney’s opponents received in 2012, and I am confident that total will exceed Romney’s total votes until his delegate total reached the minimum needed. Once his nomination became obvious, voters tapered off.

If only Cruz was in it on the conservative side we would have a chance to score then he would take the Presidency handily. Same goes for a couple of others. It won’t happen that way. The Conservatives will beat each other up in the early primaries aided by Bush and RNC money infused to slime whoever is ahead. Bush’s name will be on the ballot s but he will not really participate until the Conservatives are all shot to pieces. Then he will sweep up the later primaries and win the nomination after which he will lackadaisically stroll to defeat in the Election unless the Democrats screw up so badly that he wins. Bush as president will be not one tiny bit better than the man he replaces. He will be nicer about exercising the power but he will not give it up, even if Congress tries to cut him off. We have a dictatorship. This coming election is probably the last one for the Conservatives to contest. They lost when they won the recent one. I could be surprised. McConnell and Boehner could be deposed.

Now you and I are singing the same tune.

Conservatives lose because they lack unity.
May be too much ego, may be too much selfishness.

RINO’s win because they unite behind ONE candidate.
ROmney dropped out in 2008 to clear path for McCain.

Not so in 2012. Newt & Ricky beat each other up till the bitter end, clearing path for the lone Rino, Mitt.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.