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The GOP base will win the ’16 primary (So wrong he's right)
The Houston Chronicle's GOPLifer blog ^ | December 11, 2014 | Chris Ladd

Posted on 12/11/2014 11:12:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

For fifty years the Republican nominating process has been the avenue through which the party chooses the nominee for the next election season. This year’s nominee is never in doubt. Whoever finished second last time simply steps up for his turn.

If the second-place finisher from the last campaign decides not to run, as in ’68 and ‘00, the nominee is appointed by the party leadership and presented for ratification in the primary process. This is no historical accident, but rather a product of the institutional structure of the party. That institutional structure has broken down.

Priorities and practices that took hold when the party was organized around northern commercial interests are being torn down and replaced as the Dixiefication of the GOP reaches a new phase. Republicans will enter the next nominating cycle without a presumed candidate. It appears that for the first time since Goldwater the base will choose the nominee for the White House.

Technically, the second place finisher in 2012 was Rick Santorum, but he was little more than the last clown out of the car. It’s not clear he’ll even be able to muster a credible challenge in ’16. No frontrunner is emerging from the party’s elite as both Bush and Christie have failed to assemble the support they would need to overcome massive resistance from the Southern rank and file....

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.chron.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: 2016gopprimary; bush; chrischristie; randpaul; tedcruz
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The money quote: "Second, for the first time ever there are some minimally competent political figures competing to lead the party’s loony wing. Ted Cruz may be the smartest Republican to ever go after the paranoid bloc. He is as disciplined and determined as he is dangerous."
1 posted on 12/11/2014 11:12:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I stand with Ted


2 posted on 12/11/2014 11:15:02 AM PST by Nifster
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To: All

Then there’s this:

Republican Bigwigs Will Own the Tea Party
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-10/republican-bigwigs-will-own-the-tea-party


3 posted on 12/11/2014 11:15:18 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (The question isn't who is going to let me; it's who is going to stop me.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Ted Cruz may be the smartest Republican to ever go after the paranoid bloc.

Putting aside the "paranoid bloc" jibe, this author seems never to have heard of Ronald Regan.

4 posted on 12/11/2014 11:17:05 AM PST by SeeSharp
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To: SeeSharp

And Richard Nixon, who was whip smart.


5 posted on 12/11/2014 11:24:48 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (The question isn't who is going to let me; it's who is going to stop me.)
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To: SeeSharp

Plus Barry Goldwater, even though he was beaten badly in 1964, turned out to be right on almost everything.


6 posted on 12/11/2014 11:25:04 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Liberals always let you know who they are afraid of


7 posted on 12/11/2014 11:25:26 AM PST by vbmoneyspender
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Rumbling from Jeb and Mitt may actually be a good thing. If both jump in, maybe they will bloodly (politically) each other enough that neither appeals to the general Republicans.

Quite possibly there are factions that oppose another Bush as much as there are, across the aisle, factions that oppose another Clinton run.

Of course, with the Republicans, we never know. They fold as quick as they can.


8 posted on 12/11/2014 11:26:38 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: Vigilanteman

So was Senator McCarthy, and they still use his name as an insult. BTW, he was in tight with the Kennedys, but you won’t hear that story on the evening news.


9 posted on 12/11/2014 11:27:52 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (The question isn't who is going to let me; it's who is going to stop me.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And he was right about most things.


10 posted on 12/11/2014 11:35:59 AM PST by Resolute Conservative
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I just love the way liberals are terrified of Ted Cruz! Lol!

We really need to caricature Ted in Vampire attire with bloody fangs holding up a liberal he just drained of its blood.


11 posted on 12/11/2014 11:37:00 AM PST by Hostage (ARTICLE V)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Correct. Bobby Kennedy got his start in politics as a staffer for Senator McCarthy. John F. arranged to be absent the day that the U.S. Senate voted for censure.

Old Joseph P. Kennedy, even though he was a fan of fascism, was a strident anti-communist.

12 posted on 12/11/2014 11:38:01 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

Bush and Christie have failed to assemble the support they would need......
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Latest poll shows Hillary defeating Gov. Krispy Creme by 11 percentage points in New Jersey. LOSER!!!


13 posted on 12/11/2014 11:42:09 AM PST by Din Maker (Is anyone considering Gov. Susana Martinez of NM as the possible GOP nominee in 2016?)
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To: SeeSharp

no.. he is saying Cruz is smarter than Reagan.


14 posted on 12/11/2014 11:53:55 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Heh — I think they’d lump me in “the paranoid bloc” because I DON’T trust the government and, in fact, rather expect the government to abuse power. (Which, incidentally, is why government power should be minimal: it lessens the possible damage that it can do.)


15 posted on 12/11/2014 11:53:57 AM PST by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: vbmoneyspender

yep, Cruz terrifies them.


16 posted on 12/11/2014 11:54:26 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: Din Maker

This coming from the party that had Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton as potential Presidential candidates.


17 posted on 12/11/2014 11:54:38 AM PST by EQAndyBuzz (You can't spell liberal without label.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I love how he assumes that only a massive Democrat breakdown would allow a Republican win for POTUS. How possibly can an Obama free Democrat ticket muster the assortment of Blacks, Minorities and Leftist loons necessary to win a contested election. Obama has all but destroyed the Democrat Party. It is unlikely the Democrats could win the Industrial heartland or even Pennsylvania in the next election. They have little chance in Ohio, Florida, Iowa or even Wisconsin. Continued ruination of the states in the Northeast & California puts some of the Democrat strongholds in contention as well.

If they don't know that they are just fooling themselves.

18 posted on 12/11/2014 12:31:48 PM PST by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Nifster

I am praying for Ted but we will likely get Mitt.


19 posted on 12/11/2014 1:27:13 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Barring some bizarre breakdown on the Democratic side the ’16 Republican nominee has virtually no shot at the White House . . . [but] Winning the 2016 nomination will probably grant the nominee powerful influence over the party structure at a critical moment.
Winning a third term in a row is pretty difficult for a party to do, as Karl Rove pointed out in the WSJ today. The last party to do it was the Republicans in ’88, with Bush41 running as Reagan III. Last time before that was when we had “twenty years of treason” under FDR/Harry Truman. Right now Obama doesn’t look like the second coming of Reagan or Roosevelt - and Rove is probably also right that Obama has plenty of time to make things worse before Nov ’16.
A winner from the base could acquire enough leverage to squelch efforts to broaden the party’s appeal, instead accelerating the concentration of the party’s power in Dixie and further divesting the party from any interest in national politics. A base winner will put the party on the fast track to some kind of regional split. As dangerous as that sounds, it’s probably inevitable. Let’s give them what they want and get this over with.
That’s not how it worked out in 1980, tho. Republican John Anderson ran third party and pulled about 10% of the popular vote - and Reagan still skunked Carter 50%-40% in the general election.

Obama won’t run for reelection in ’16, but the stink of his malfeasance will hang heavy over whoever does carry the GruberCrat banner then.


20 posted on 12/11/2014 1:41:04 PM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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