Posted on 01/19/2014 1:16:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
My Post colleague Dan Balz has some very interesting reporting from Democratic and Republican strategists. Both groups seem somewhat pessimistic about the GOP’s chances in 2016:
A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few.
That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: The quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.
Demographics are certainly one factor worth considering. But it’s worth taking a minute to see what a few of those others factors suggest. It might give that veteran of GOP presidential campaigns more hope.
In April 2012, two other political scientists — Seth Hill and Lynn Vavreck — and I did a presidential election forecasting model for The Washington Post. The model had only three factors: The change in gross domestic product in the first two quarters of the election year, the president’s approval rating as of June of that year and whether the incumbent was running. That model forecast that Obama would win in 2012, and — although there is nothing magic about this model — it was ultimately accurate within a percentage point.
It is far too early to do a formal forecast for 2016. The economic and political conditions in that year will be paramount. But given that at least some in the GOP appear pessimistic as of today, it’s worth asking...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
The GOP has an uncanny knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
I like Mike Lee, but he’s a Mormon. The 2012 election may indicate the country is not ready to elect a Mormon as President. (Romney might have won if he hadn’t been a Mormon...or maybe if he had been a conservative, regardless of his religious affiliation.)
Not going to get any argument from me on that. I’m lucky enough to live in a state where I get to vote for Ted Cruz....but, as far as I’m concerned the rest of the Republican Party it isn’t worth spitting on ....
We have Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, etc., etc...
Quite frankly, it doesn’t matter which consertvative runs for President any more. Hillary will campaign on “more free stuff”..and will win.
“There is almost no chance Republicans can win in 2016.”
I completely agree. Though many on the conservative side won’t admit that it plays a factor, the eyhnic and social demographics strongly favor the dems. They (the dems) cultivated the special interest groups through what amounted to their “dark age” and slowly built it into the juggernaut it is today. The Repubs still can do well in some of the statehouses and congressional races, so that’s where the bulk of the resources and efforts should go at campaign time. But the White House? No.
Then why are you here?
Several precincts in Philly voted at 103-116% of registered demoncrap voters; no problem there. No follow-up from Dept of InJustice, either. Approval was understood. It’ll be a lot worse in ‘16.
The GOP has an uncanny knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
True, but in large part, the Repubs start out at a disadvantage anyway because the public is propagandized by the media to believe the GOP is dangerously out of touch.
That's not why.
The reason why is that they refuse to stand for anything.
Considering they’ve foisted Dole, McCain and Romney etc upon us, I’d have to agree with that assessment.
“That’s not why. The reason why is that they refuse to stand for anything.”
Yup, there is that.
I enjoy reading the musings of my fellow conservatives. Being old school, I'm also a realist. We can wish all day long for a Palin or a Cruz to save the day, but the liberals have broken the code on how their constituents think and what they care about..all we do is talk. Even our so-called “leadership” is laughably inept and irrelevant. I miss my Country.
Great sentiment, but where are you going to find 287 representatives and 67 senators to replace the current office holders. When supposed conservative stalwarts such as Trey Gowdy comes out for Immigration Reform, are there any conservatives left with the potential to win an election?
Threads like the following, and two elections cycles ahead of us, give me some optimism.
Expanded map boosts GOP confidence
Threads like the following, and two elections cycles ahead of us, give me some optimism.
Expanded map boosts GOP confidence
Allen West.
They didn’t even try to hide what they did to Allen West.
And they had court approval all the way through it (just like Al Franken did).
Yeah, but if the people enforcing our election laws decide not to do anything it doesn’t matter what proof you have.
I am so tired of hearing that the Democrats are the underdogs, we all know better, they ARE the system
Hillary, it’s inevitable.
At least according to my Libtard B-I-L who seems to think Hillary is the smartest person on the Planet, next to Obama of course.
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