[2ndDivisionVet]

Comments?

[ObozoMustGo2012]

Al Franken. Enough said!

[kingattax]

[PGR88]

Minnesota turning red?

Has Obama lost the Somali vote?!

[fortheDeclaration]

Would be a nice surprise, but I am not counting on it.

[MNGal]

If MN went red this election, it would definitely be a happy day in my house. I spoke with my “lib” father this evening. He said that he is considering voting for Romney because he is concerned about the economy and national debt and doesn’t think Obama is willing to fix the problem. If HE is considering voting for Romney, there must be many other limbs considering it too.

[hinckley buzzard]

I'll believe it when I see it. That's my comment.

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping

[GunRunner]

WI and MI maybe. No way PA or MN go red.

[Redmen4ever]

For similar reasons, I came this close to moving MN to toss-up this evening. I have it as 49-46 and “leans Obama.” Possibly, it’ll be among the surprise pick-ups on election night 50 to 49 to 1.

[mplsconservative]

My adventure into St. Paul for the State Fair, convinced me they’re all still nuts in the inner-city. Crazy, howling at the moon, Amy Klobuchar nuts.

I kissed the ground when I got home in the west metro. I would love for Minnesota to go in the R column, but I don’t see it. Too many D’s in Mpls./St. Paul and Duluth.

Berkeley of the midwest. I’m glad I have other heritage to offset the Scandinavian madness, plus I’m South Dakotan by birth and upbringing. Keeps me sane.

[Colonel_Flagg]

What some knee-jerk Freepers don’t realize is that Minnesota is very quirky when it comes to politics.

Yes, we’ve elected moonbats like Ellison, Klobuchar and James “Governor Turnbuckle” Janos. We even let Stuart Smalley steal an election.

But we’ve also elected people like Bachmann, Pawlenty and Rod Grams and flipped both houses of the Legislature in 2010. We also went 25 years without electing a Democrat governor.

So the state is, in reality, purple. Going red would be wonderful in November because we have a legislature to hold, and Voter ID and the marriage amendment to get passed.

[OneVike]

I grew up in Duluth, left at 16 when I joined the carnival. I have only been back a few times since. It was already a liberal bastion back in the early 1970's when I left. I always refereed to it as SF of the North due to its liberal commie policies.

It's in the 8th Congressional District that had been in Democrat hands since 1947. I never thought I would see the day that Congressman Jim Oberstar would lose his seat to a Republican. I was convinced he would die in office, but then 2010 happened and Chip Cravaack defeated him.

That Congressional seat was considered the most secure Democrat seat in the nation. I wrote about it being a sign of the Democrats demise back in 2010.

Now I am of the opinion that Minnesota could very well go Republican this time around for Romney. If it does, then I would also bet that California is a lot closer then we know. Not that Romney will win Ca, but many Americans now know who Obama and the democrats are, and they don't like what they see.

[Road Glide]

“Election Night Surprise: Why Minnesota Will Turn Red on November 6...”

Heh.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[freemama]

Not figured into the analysis is the marriage referendums effect on turn out. I think conservatives who heretofore didn’t vote in MN because it just always goes dem will turn out this time to vote on that. It could be the tipping point.

[CaspersGh0sts]

I could see it. It’s a very white state with a higher than average rate of religious observance. There’s a long history of liberalism, particularly in the Twin Cities area. Lots of old unions are falling by the wayside, but you still have cities like Duluth that are chock full of blue collar unions guys.

I honestly see MN and WI increasingly breaking the GOP way. It’s long past due.

[SeekAndFind]

With President Obama in the SurveyUSA Party ID section this breaks down as (27 x .06) + (37 x .93) + (30 x .42) + (6 x .17) + (6 x .33) = 51.7 or 52

Scenario 1: Survey USA Party ID	27	37	30	6	[6]	Vote Total
	Republicans %	Democrats %	Independents %	Other %	Undecided %
Obama	6	93	42	17	33	51.7
Romney	89	4	45	17	66	44.0
Scenario 2: 2008 Party ID	33	37	25	6	[6]
	Republicans %	Democrats %	Independents %	Other %	Undecided %
Obama	6	93	42	17	33	49.9
Romney	89	4	45	17	66	47.1
Scenario 3: 2012 Party ID est.	32	32	30	6	[6]
	Republicans %	Democrats %	Independents %	Other %	Undecided %
Obama	6	93	42	17	33	47.3
Romney	89	4	45	17	66	48.2

Our three scenarios produce the following results:

• Party ID D +10: Obama wins by 8
• Party ID D +4: Obama wins by 3
• Party ID even: Romney wins by 1

[lquist1]

I live here in the Twin Cities and I’ve been seeing Obama ads for a couple months now. Not a whole bunch of them, but they do advertise here somewhat regularly. Haven’t seen any Romney ads. I have assumed that they were targeted toward Western Wisconsin, which is only about 20 minutes from St Paul. I just can’t imagine this state turning red, but I’m sure it could happen with a big enough wave.

[TomEwall]

“In 2008, the under-performance versus the national shrunk to 1%, meaning had John McCain received 51% of the national vote, he could have expected to get 50% of the vote in Minnesota.”

I didn’t understand where this number came from, given that Obama won Minnesota by 3% more than the national vote. It seems like this would translate to McCain would have needed to have obtained 3% more of the vote to have a shot at Minnesota.

I remember reading some years ago from Jay Cost, when he was doing the horse race blog, that Minnesota, and other Upper Midwest states, were trending Republican. If this is the case, and given a +3 Dem bias to overcome, it seems from logic that if Romney wins by 2% or so, he ought to have a shot.