Posted on 10/20/2012 7:36:37 PM PDT by NY4Romney
As the presidential election approaches, I've decided to make a guide to keep some of us from freaking out as polls close and states are called. I'm basing it off of what happened in 2008.
7PM * Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia will close. * In 2008: Kentucky called for McCain, Vermont for Obama. The rest were too close to call. *Good news in 2012: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina all called for Romney at the close. *Bad news in 2012: Any of the above considered too close to call for Romney at close. *We've likely won if: Virginia is called for Romney at closing. *We've likely lost if: Virginia is called for Obama at close (or any time after).
7:30PM *Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia close. *In 2008, Ohio and NC were too close to call, WV went for McCain at close. *In 2012, it will likely go the same way. *Good news in 2012: North Carolina called for Romney at close. *Bad news in 2012: North Carolina called for Obama at close (or any time after).
8PM *Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington DC. *In 2008, Obama got Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. McCain got only Oklahoma and Tennessee at close. *Good news in 2012: Romney gets Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri at close. Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire are too close to call. Bad news in 2012: Any from the point above are "too close to call", Pennsylvania is called for Obama early (even if Obama ends up winning it, if we keep it too close to call it's bad for Obama), New Hampshire is called for Obama early. We've likely won if: Florida, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania are called for Romney at closing.
8:30PM *Arkansas only, which was called right away for McCain and will again be called right away for Romney.
9PM *Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming. *In 2008, Obama got Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, and Rhode Island at poll closing time. McCain got Texas, Wyoming and Kansas. *Good news in 2012: Romney gets Texas, Wyoming, Arizona, Louisiana, Nebraska and Kansas at close. Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado are too close to call. *Bad news in 2012: Any from point above that should close for Romney are too close to call. Michigan, Wisconsin, or Colorado go for Obama right at close. *We likely win if: Wisconsin or Colorado are called for Romney at close.
!0PM *Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah close. *In 2008, Iowa called for Obama. Utah for McCain. Other two too close to call at close. *In 2012, good news is: Montana and Utah called at close for Romney. Iowa and Nevada too close to call. *Bad news in 2012: Nevada or Iowa called for Obama at close. Montana too close to call. *We likely win if: Iowa is called for Romney at close.
Past 10 pm, the remaining states are obvious and will be called right at closing time just like in 2008.
This guide is only explaining what is good or bad for us right when the polls close, using exit polls. Obviously, exit polls can be wrong, and this is simply a loose guideline, but using it we can get an idea of how things are going fairly early on in the night by simply comparing to what happened in 2008. In 2008, typical safe Republican states were considered too close to call, which is when I KNEW McCain had lost badly.
I went to school in Michigan in the 1980’s....I watched the returns on a Windsor, ON affiliate when Brian Mulroney won.
Maybe the western affiliates don’t carry the news feed until their local polls close though.
I looked up the law, it was passed in 2000.
The passage in question
“Section 329 of the Canada Elections Act outlaws publishing election results from other ridings in constituencies where polls are still open”
So the national media and websites have to be silent, and people tweeted when they heard their local results on local tv and radio.
it has been 10 days now. Reporting back.
Enjoyed most of it ... the campaigning ... a very small group of vols ... even CT suburbanites are looking for a change ,... if they can overcome the DEM stronghold.
5 more days.
GOOD on you! I am hoping and praying Linda wins the US Senate seat!
Good luck. I got my lawyers for Romney assignment for Tuesday. Ready to go make sure there’s no shenanigans on my watch.
I want to verify this Tuesday night.
not sure if I reported back.
My candidate in CT won. 51% to 49%. 18-year incumbent is gone. Doorbell ringing was the difference maker.
Maybe the folks running this campaign should have been running the national GOP effort.
We got our butts kicked in the county, but I can honestly say that I tried my best. I have a dem state rep again thanks to the dem stronghold, but redistricting helps me with my senator taking me out of the Ann Arbor City district. Tim Walberg survived, which is good as well.
I've heard mixed reviews about Romney's campaign. It was a lot better than McCain's, but I've seen better. Doorknocks are still the best way to win.
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