Posted on 09/04/2012 11:46:53 AM PDT by MNJohnnie
he prolific Democratic polling firm has the president ahead, by tightening margins, in two swing states. Here's Colorado:
PPP's first post-convention Colorado poll finds Barack Obama continuing to hold the lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49-46. This is, however, the closest PPP has found the race in four Colorado polls this year suggesting that Romney may have received a modest bounce in the state.
Last month we found Obama ahead by a 49-43 margin in Colorado. But in the wake of his selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate and the Republican convention Romney has consolidated the GOP vote, going from an 85-10 advantage with his party base to an 89-8 one. He continues to trail in the state because of his struggles with independents there though. Obama has a 48-41 lead with them, a trend that's been consistent in our polling there all year.
And Michigan:
PPP's first likely voters poll in Michigan this year finds Barack Obama with a solid lead in the state, 51-44. That's down a good bit from our last registered voters poll in July which found Obama ahead 53-39. That's a reflection of the fact that the state could be looking at a very different electorate in 2012 than it had in 2008. We find that 34% of likely voters on this poll are Republicans compared with 33% who are Democrats. Exit polls last time showed 41% of voters as Democrats and just 29% as Republicans.
Nevertheless, Obama still has a healthy lead. That reflects the fact that despite his ties to the state, Michigan voters just don't embrace Romney. Only 45% have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with an unfavorable one. They don't accept Romney as one of their own either — only 34% consider him to be a Michigander to 57% who do not.
Like most data on the Obama-Romney matchup, there's a glass half-full and half-empty read for both sides. Any lead is good news for a president as vulnerable as this one, but Romney can take some comfort in the fact that he's closed the gap.
So what is your sense on the ground. Any chance of swinging your state to the Red column this year?
PPP is consistently in the tank for Obama by 9 points. Romney leads.
I would be surprised if Romney loses Colorado, based on the active politically mormon population and so many pockets of moderate leaning conservatives.
I think Obama wins Michigan.
I think Romney has a great chance in Colorado.
You can’t trust PPP. I base my assumptions on Rasmussen state polls in Michigan and Colorado as well as the gallup national polls.
I am most interested in the polls that will be 1 week AFTER the DNC convention. With the conventions over, we will have a better look at things. The debates will be another time to wait until a few days after them to see the results. I still think this is going to be an incredibly close race. It is ashame that they did not pick Santorum or Bachmann for the Presidency. We would not even have to worry about the election. Oh well I hope next time they will learn.
weird numbers - I call BS
CO
DEM 37
GOP 37
IND 27
MI
DEM 33
GOP 34
IND 33
You’d think Mitt could deliver the states he resided in (MI, NH). I understand Mass
You’d think Mitt could deliver the states he resided in (MI, NH). I understand Mass
These splits should have Romney up a lot. Again, one set of data is simply waaaayyyy wrong, either the set that says only 40% say Obama deserves reelection, or this.
How heavily were the democrats overrepresented in these polls? Colorado democrats are trying to undo the taxpayers rights bill.
More Republicans turn out than Democrats and Obama still wins?
Sorry. Not buying it.
I find it hard to believe that Obama is winning independents in CO and MI when most polling I see shows him losing independents big everywhere else.
It doesn’t look to me like the democrats are putting up much of a fight for any of the downticket races here aside from Stabenow’s seat.
They flushed a lot of money losing Michigan in 2010. $8 million in the 7th district alone. Even Dingell had to spend money he shouldn’t have had to spend.
Well, if you have no use for him, you shouldn’t vote for Romney. Or are you just talkin the talk?
I never said I was going to vote for Romney. I was asked a question and pinged the list.
Check out the ppp site I think they are playing with the sample
I agree.
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