Posted on 09/01/2012 3:42:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
At time of writing, polls show the race for the presidency to be tight. General consensus seems to be that whoever wins, the 2012 election will be won by a bat squeak.
Yet to many, especially those of us on the right, it seems peculiar that Obama is still remotely in the race. With highunemployment, minimal GDP growth, a 100% increase in food stamp costs, and out-of-control spending, many conservatives are asking how just under half of the American population can possibly want more of the same.
While it is not possible now to get into the many reasons certain people will vote Democrat in November, I propose that all polls, not just left-leaning polls, may be being strongly misled by their data, and Romney/Ryan may actually have a huge lead not seen in polls.
It is my contention that this is due to a mix of the infamous Bradley effect and what is known in Britain as "the Shy Tory Factor," with both coming together to exaggerate just how popular Obama is in America.
The Bradley effect is a much-debated polling distortion that is easy to demonstrate but difficult to prove. The idea that when a black or minority candidate is on the ticket against a white candidate, certain voters may lie under pressure from a pollster, worried about being seen as a racist for choosing the white candidate over the minority, sounds highly plausible. The consequence, should the Bradley effect be in play, would be a skewed poll indicating that the minority candidate is in better political shape than his or her opponent...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
You are right, there was no Bradley Effect in 2008. Why would there be? It was “cool” to support Obama. Some were proud to admit so. This year, I would bet that is not the case, and there will be a reason for the Bradley Effect to have an impact. In 2008 it was PC to support him, this year it is not PC to vote against him.
The “Bradley Effect” no longer exists in any real way these days. I suspect this election wil be more like the Carter election....people will just have had enough.
It’s not the Bradley effect, it’s the Political Correctness effect, and the fact that lefties have become so vociferous, rude and unable to live and let live. Many normal people have decided they’d rather not put up with the ugly behavior. So they keep quiet and bide their time.
There is some merit to the writer’s idea. I think his interpretation of why this is happening has problems.
Romney is ahead of where Reagan was at this point in 1980. We know how that turned out.
We heard all this noise in 2008. The polls turned out to be close to dead-on on election day. There is no “Bradley Effect.”
The illusory “Bradley Effect is what some of us will hang their hat on to soothe themselves over polling data that appears discouraging. Then, after the election, they`ll blame voter fraud.
Forget the folly of placing hope in the “Bradley Effect.” It didn`t play a factor in 2008, and it won`t play now.
You and I must be the only people who actually read the American Thinker article about the Bradley Effect. Just because McCain lost doesn’t mean there was no Bradley Effect.
Had there not been a Bradley Effect Obama would have won a much larger plurality.
” CBS poll near election day predicted that McCain would win the white vote by a mere 3%, and on election day the Republican actually brought in 12% more of the vote than the Democrat. Had it not been for an unusually high turnout among blacks and minorities, Obama’s landslide would have been a lot closer.”
I’m sure the Bradley Effect and Shy Tory Syndrome will help Romney significantly, and most certainly it is showing up in their private polling.
No way do I believe these lying polls showing a tight race.
Don’t know if the Bradley Effect had much impact in 2008, but the new Bradley Effect, if Obama wins again, will be tanks in the streets...
For some reason I seem to have made the list this year. I have been called three times. I give a different answer every time. Pollesters call because the politicians use poll's to manipulate the masses and try to influence the vote (push polls). I am sick of it. Looking forward to another Pubbie landslide in November. (Based upon empirical evidence.)
That is exactly correct.
Obama MAXED OUT his support last time- he has no where to go but down
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