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"If Obama decided not to run, the only way another Dem could win would be to renounce Obama’s policies and run to the right of the Republican candidate, which ain’t going to happen."

Actually, this could play out a lot like the Dem campaign did in '68. A lot of people don't remember that Johnson actually started running for reelection that year. Eugene McCarthy lost, but made a much stronger showing than expected in the NH primary by running to the left of LBJ. This showed some fractures in LBJ's armor, which resulted in Bobby Kennedy being drafted and making a run up the middle.

I could see a Kucinich, Nader etc., actually trying a run to the left of Obama and getting some of the far left base, then Hillary being brought in to "save the party," with Obama being discreetly asked to exit stage left.

I could see a Kucinich, Nader etc., actually trying a run to the left of Obama and getting some of the far left base

I've been wondering if the hard-core leftists will decide to show their true colors next year and support the Communist/Socialist Party, in part to "punish" Obama for being too moderate. I wouldn't be surprised to see the CPUSA have the best showing in their history, and maybe get enough votes to get matching funds and a guaranteed spot in debates in 2016.

I could see that leading to Obama getting in the low 30s of the popular vote and 0 electoral votes. (This is probably wishful thinking on my part.)