Posted on 07/03/2011 8:05:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.
Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.
Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.
(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.) Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up. There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.
But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.
Which pretty well explains this outcome:
Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right. Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.
The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.
(GRAPHIC AT LINK)
Interesting analysis, but all the dynamics of the race will change when Palin actually announces. Expect her to suck the air out of everyone else’s balloons when that happens.
Earlier... [Liberal Media Biased] HotAir bashes Conservative Tea Parties, etc
The Left is hoping for Palin to be "the one". Early on the Democrats felt they had a better chance against her. Thus, be aware of wolves in sheep's clothing.
However, Rasmussen called a true driving force in American politics could suggest that any of the candidates could beat Obama with these percentages:
What a bunch of crap.
How is it that this analysis, like a lot of the other ABP analyses, states that Palin would be a coronator but not good enough to be a candidate? That is illogical.
If Palin is such a weak candidate, and has her detractors like to say, has such high negatives, candidates wouldn't want her support. They'd be running away from her support.
As for Hot Air, since Michelle Malkin sold the site, it has taken more of a tilt towards the "moderate" Republican, or as I prefer to call it, the squishy middle. Funny how they take a poll, see the winner of the poll, yet determine the one who came in second is the actual winner.
Geez, I get it already, Hot Air doesn't like Gov. Palin as a lot of the "moderate" wing doesn't like her.
Now the big question for all those clairvoyants who know that Palin is not running. Where will Palin supporters go? Bachmann? Maybe, maybe not. Romney? No chance. Perry? probably.
HA projections are no better than any other. Based on historical trends, the R nominee will be a Governor with executive experience, not someone who has never even won a statewide election. That means Romney, or Perry or Palin, should they enter the race.
Lately HA has really been pimping Bachmann, not because they like Bachmann, but because they see her as a means of stopping Palin.
I agree. Bachmann shot herself in the foot when she hired Rollins and then didn't personally publicly apologize for Rollins comments. Most Palin supporters - I'm one - currently view Bachmann as a self-serving opportunist.
Spot on.
Below are their results over the past four months. Notice the candidate who has seen their support steadily rising.
Summary of Hot Air GOP presidential polls since April:
Apr 4 May 15 June 2 June 16 July 3
PALIN 33.0% 32 .04% 34.91% 36.48% 36.94%
CAIN 11.0% 21.13% 15.78% 8.98% 6.68%
ROMNEY 11.0% 3.11% 6.58% 7.55% 6.30%
PAWLENTY 9.0% 6.51% 6.17% 5.28% ~4%
BACHMANN 7.0% 3.81% 2.52% 11.20% 19.95%
PERRY -— —— 24.13% 14.07% 18.91%
GINGRICH 2.0% 2.08% 0.24% 0.56% <1%
Despite the claims around here that it's gospel truth Bachmann has no chance with Palin supporters because of "backstabbing," the survey showed her only 11% behind Perry as their second choice.
Just a reminder to all who may have forgotten. Palin ENDORSED John McCain for the Arizona seat — and now look what we got.
Off topic, but I just saw where Greta Van Susteren is in Alaska right now. Doesn’t John Coale (Greta’s husband) still work for Palin?
We got the very same thing we would have had if she didn’t support him, except for the screaming of how disloyal and ungrateful she is for not supporting the man who introduced her to America.
Obama wins reelection.
Ironically it was just posted:
"Most Palin supporters - I'm one - currently view Bachmann as a self-serving opportunist."
I'm actually still quite suspect of Bachmann being a top tier candidate. I know what the polls say, which were based upon the glowing media reports of the last debate, but that debate really wasn't a debate. It was more a campaign infomercial for the various candidates. Point being, from what I've seen of her, I'm not so sure she will do so well if challenged (as indicated by some of her TV interviews over the past four years).
I like her Conservative message, don't get me wrong. I'm just not sold (just yet) that she's who she claims to be. Where she will have problems is on her lack of a record, which at some point will be brought up (since she isn't a Democrat). It's hard enough for a member of the House to make a successful run. But, a member of the House with no major accomplishment? I don't know.
No he never worked for Palin.
I don't think many endorsed Hayworth....maybe Cain did?
Michele liked them both.
Bachmann April 2010: I know both gentlemen, and they’re both honorable men.
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