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Posted on 05/16/2011 10:47:33 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
If she decides to run...
With both Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announcing that they will not be running for President, it eliminates two major variables from the scrambled GOP primary field. Huckabee, in particular, would have been one of the frontrunners had he decided to run, so his decision to sit out has major ramifications on the rest of the field.
Huckabee would have once again been the favorite to win Iowa. His departure leaves a major void with Iowa's large Republican evangelical Christian base, a group that is now up for grabs. Sarah Palin likely won't run, but you have to wonder what her thought process is right now since she'd likely have the best shot at swooping up those remains in Iowa. Doing so would give her a very good shot at winning Iowa, and with the type of money she'd be able to raise, she'd have just as good a shot at winning the nomination as anyone else in the field.
If Palin doesn't run, someone like Michelle Bachmann or Rick Santorum, two other Republicans who wear their religion on their sleeve, could benefit in Iowa. The question with those two is can they generate enough name ID and buzz for it to matter.
Trump turned out to be a one gimmick candidate and was never able to recover once President Obama released his long-form birth certificate and chopped up Trump's birther base. His departure though also frees up a 5-10% chunk of primary voters, a major opportunity for someone like Herman Cain, another "non-political" businessman with a no-non-sense approach, as well, again, someone like Sarah Palin who is well liked by the same Tea Party types that were supporting Trump.
Mitt Romney also benefits here. With Huckabee out of Iowa, it's one less serious contender he has to worry about in that state, a state he lost last time around. If Romney wins Iowa, he will be in very good position to win the primaries very quickly, since he is likely to do well in New Hampshire and the chances of winning Iowa AND New Hampshire and then going on to lose the primaries, with the type of money and organizational advantages he has, is slim to none.
Still though, the departures of Huckabee and Trump have the potential to benefit Palin more than anyone else, if she opts to run.
Ditto
“Palin departure will Boost Bachmann.”
I have always believed that Bachmann was a stalking horse for Palin.......
As a less than totally serious candidate, given the historical record of Representatives running for and winning the Presidency, Bachmann fills the lightning rod position of floating the most Conservative Ideas to the general public enabling Palin to step in later and clean up any resulting debris.
I used to think that Bachmann would be, and was targeting the VP’s office on a Palin ticket. I no longer think nor hope for that situation.
If 2012 goes well, Id like to see Bachmann seek and obtain the House Speakers position away from the Ohio Tear-man. She would be an invaluable assett for a Palin Presidency from that position, even better than any utility she could have in the VP’s office.....
“If she runs, they’ll be all over her like fire ants. She has no security and I doubt anyone would give her any.”
Believe it or not there are many men in the Republican Party that have the requisite cajones and fortitude to fulfill that task.
Latter as the Republican Presidential Nominee she would, of course, be entilted to Secret Service protection.......
I honestly don’t think Sarah is concerned for her personal security. People like her don’t walk through life being overly cautious. They trust in, and enjoy their fellow citizens, and do not view them as a physical threat. Besides, as a christian woman, I’ll bet she deep-seated belief that God is her shield......
Since 1900, only one Republican became president by defeating an incumbent. That was Ronald Reagan, in 1980. He had these four traits that might have helped him:
1. He was conservative.
2. He was a governor.
3. He sought the nomination, in a previous election.
4. He was from the West.
These Republicans, who might run, have at least three of those four traits: Sarah Palin, Dirk Kempthorne, and Mitt Romney. I hope that all of them will run, and I hope that Tim Pawlenty and Buddy Roemer will run. I hope that at least four of them will continue campaigning until the convention. If that happens, no one will get the majority of the delegates before the convention. The convention will be more suspenseful and exciting, causing more people to watch and hear the great republican ideas. That happened in 1980, and Reagan won about 40 states.
“Fred, as much as I liked him, always seemed to be a bit nonchalant about the whole thing and that was ultimately his downfall.”
I have always felt that the above is a MSM generated perception designed to knock out one of our better primary candidates. Seems it worked last time......This time?????
Shame on us if it does........
Palin isn’t running. I know a lot of people want her to run, but I don’t see her doing that.
“These Republicans, who might run, have at least three of those four traits: Sarah Palin, Dirk Kempthorne, and Mitt Romney. I hope that all of them will run, and I hope that Tim Pawlenty and Buddy Roemer will run. I hope that at least four of them will continue campaigning until the convention. If that happens, no one will get the majority of the delegates before the convention. The convention will be more suspenseful and exciting, causing more people to watch and hear the great republican ideas. That happened in 1980, and Reagan won about 40 states.”
Though I don’t agree with all the candidates you name being in the mix, overall I tend to agree with your analysis. Thanks.
“I know a lot of people want her to run, but I don’t see her doing that.”
Funny, even Ray Charles could see that she is running.
Palin/Strauss-Khan?
Cain/Muratbek Sansyzbayevich Imanaliyev?
I’m a little short global politics for a while.
The Governor of Massachusetts who was the son of the Michigan Governor is considered a “Western” politician? because he is not recognized as a conservative.
Well, at least I know how much credibility you have when you criticize Palin in the future.
Get out of here -
C.Christie isn't a gun grabber. He's in NJ. There is some State politics there....but yeah I agree I don't agree with him firmly on this issue with some of his comments. But people can't be one issue voters. Nor do I believe if elected he will look to go to that issue. Not at all.
M. Daniels. May not be exciting. But I don't believe people are looking for exciting this election (that was 2008). They are looking for someone who is serious and looking to work. That is M. Daniels. (it isn't Palin. She does not come off serious all that often, IMO).
My List. 1. Daniels (at this time, though want to find out more of what he thinks about recent IN SC decision). 2. Cain 3. Cristie 4. Palin. The rest are garbage, I'll agree.
No, Romney isn’t western. He’s conservative, compared to John McCain, Mark Kirk, and Rudy Giuliani.
he’s also a magic underpants-wearing cultist.
Only if you count the Romney that started preparing for the 2008 campaign, before that he had left the GOP because of Reagan, and before he re registered Republican in 1993 he had been donating to, and even fund raising for liberal Democrats nationally, even once he came back to the GOP he was fundraising for Planned Parenthood and calling for positions to the left of Ted Kennedy and Bill Clinton, such as full homosexualization of the military instead of DADT.
Romney is no conservative, never has been conservative, and that is why he is not perceived as a conservative.
Chris Mathews and his 12 person panel agrees with you about Daniels as number one preferred candidate for the GOP in their eyes.
Also pro abortion, pro gay agenda, Laura Bush has personally intervened to try and persuade Daniels to run.
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