Wilson can be beaten in the primary, but the problem seems now that she can’t be without fundamentally destroying our chances for winning the general election. If Sanchez throws everything AND the kitchen sink at her, a good chunk of the party won’t vote for him in the general (presuming he faces Heinrich). I’m not thrilled about her as a candidate, because she is too mild and not terribly motivating, but that might also be exactly what NM might be prepared to elect next year. As for the rumor that Pearce may get in, that would be ill-advised, and that also would just guarantee a replay of 2008. Sanchez staying out of the race now might be best and he can quietly build support to succeed Martinez as Governor (and obtain support from both the Pearce wing and from the Wilson supporters).
Pearce would have to be an idiot to give up his seat again.
So you think that Sanchez will pass on running without having to give up his Lt. Gov. seat for a rare open U.S. Senate race in 2012 in order to, maybe, be in good graces with two politicians who may be out of politics altogether in a few years as far as we know, and maybe be the frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination in *2018*? I think that if Sanchez passes is because his internal polls read the same as this Magellan poll, not because he’s thinking 2018. Heck, if he really wants to be elected governor in 2018, there would be no better way than to get elected to the Senate in 2012; and even if he ran in2012 and lost the primary or general, he’d have 6 years as Lt. Gov. to help people forget before running for governor in 2018. And if he really wants to be a Senator, he can try in 2012 and, if he loses, he has another year to think about perhaps running against Udall in 2014 instead of running for reelection.
If Sanchez thinks that he can win, I think that he’ll run in 2012.
I am surprised at Sanchez’s low level of support and this is from a Republican polling firm. I agree that he should stay where he is for now. Perhaps many note that he’s only held his current office for four months.
Ideologically, Heather Wilson is satisfactory, if nothing spectacular. She’s no Dede Scozzafava.