So you think that Sanchez will pass on running without having to give up his Lt. Gov. seat for a rare open U.S. Senate race in 2012 in order to, maybe, be in good graces with two politicians who may be out of politics altogether in a few years as far as we know, and maybe be the frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination in *2018*? I think that if Sanchez passes is because his internal polls read the same as this Magellan poll, not because he’s thinking 2018. Heck, if he really wants to be elected governor in 2018, there would be no better way than to get elected to the Senate in 2012; and even if he ran in2012 and lost the primary or general, he’d have 6 years as Lt. Gov. to help people forget before running for governor in 2018. And if he really wants to be a Senator, he can try in 2012 and, if he loses, he has another year to think about perhaps running against Udall in 2014 instead of running for reelection.
If Sanchez thinks that he can win, I think that he’ll run in 2012.
I say that because his polling data is terrible for a known candidate. He might very well end up as Governor BEFORE 2014 (Susana Martinez might very well be plucked by the next GOP administration for U.S. Attorney-General), but if he ends up running for Senator, getting badly shellacked in the primary (say, by a 70-30 margin), the blood will be in the water for 2014. My advice is just to stay put, given the dynamics.