Posted on 12/20/2010 10:26:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.
Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.
If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.
That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.
"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE
Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.
Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.
To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.
The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.
And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.
Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.
In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.
"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.
Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."
"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.
Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.
She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.
PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW
Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.
At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.
Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.
Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.
"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.
You know, she might do it.
I think O is getting on people’s last nerve. It just might be a blow-out.
She just has to win the states Bush won.
Yep any combination to get to 270 works. Bush wins, pick up of McCain losses, or however one wants to bet the people will vote in 2012.
Palin is quicker in getting her words out than any politician in the last 50 years, this is a sign she says what she believes!
Finally, someone who tells the Truth!
Some people seems to think a woman can’t run this country, that’s another reason why she needs to be the first woman President!
She would do a lot to hurt the men having sex with men lifestyle,
Normal would be back in again!
That’s probably the biggest reason that the anti Palin freepers keeping spurring out all the same negatives Reagan lived with, yes, our token liberal democrat Trolls and with their sick lifestyle)!
“’How fortunate for FR that the people who post don’t think.”
That pretty much sums up your posting on this thread.
‘night.
The amount of and vileness of detractors (and or) MSM is an accurate gauge of how scared of the Competition... and they are pretty scared.
(But she still ain’t the Gipper ... not even close.)
Now her Platform ... that is almost dead on and should be supported by any Conservative.
TT
These fools do not understand that Palin's independence is her greatest strength. Americans are tired of presidents who are little more than puppets on strings. We a president who can be his own man. Or if not, at least a president who can be her own woman.
The Republican party will be better when we get rid of people like you from the party. You are not a conservative and you clearly don’t have the best intrests of your country in mind.
Don’t you dare write me back telling me how patriotic you are and how long you have voted Republican. Because I don’t care. You personally are a fraud.
Precisely!
"Call me whatever you like. If she gets the nomination, I’ll come back here and laugh at you when she doesn’t win...."
What will you do when she wins......cry?
I was disappointed in that decision too, but do you really think this year's elections would have turned out as well without Sarah's involvement or that she could have done as much while serving as governor and also fighting the unending stream of frivolous lawsuits and charges? She (probably) made the right call on resigning.
I am sure the Palins could pick up a Rancher's Reserve® Boneless Beef New York Strip Roast at the local Safeway for $4.99/lb. I am sure they do visit their local Safeway, and perhaps buy meat there. With Sarah's recent economic fortune, they can afford to eat steak (Rancher's Reserve® Beef Ribeye Steak is $6.49/lb this week). However, it is myopic thinking that overlooks one thing when you make snarky comments about eating "clueless animals": The culture of Alaska. Since you have no clue about the culture of the people of Alaska, you reflect a type of narcissistic bigotry that derides any people who do not engage in the same cultural behavior you do. For instance, Huevos de Toro (bull balls) cooked with green peppers and onions is a popular breakfast in Panama. These Panamanians must be just more "garbage" because they can't eat Kellogg's Froot Loops like you do.
In Japan they eat tuna eyeballs. You are probably in a fret that poor Charlie the Tuna is missing an eyeball. Don't worry, Japan catches about 25,000 tons of Bigeye Tuna. Their love of Charlie the Tuna, another "clueless animal," is another one of those cultural things.
Personally, I would give my left something or other to have a freezer full of Sarah Palin's tasty Caribou (3% fat compared to beef which has 18 to 41% fat).
In short, get off your high and mighty about what people eat and how they get what they eat.
I don’t think so. The bigger question is, does any Republican have a shot at US Presidency in 2012? IMO, the answer isn’t as clear as some of us would like to think.
I think you hit it on the head. The Lamestream/Brown Shirt Media hates her. I think folks have had enough of these corrupt “journalists” trying to tell us what we need to think. I suspect the blowback from this ALONE could propel Sarah into the White House in 2012 right over the carcass of the current _resident.
Palin/Bachman 2012!
But, she is already controlling the conversation, and may well control the agenda come 2012.
People ignore the Barracuda at their peril.
Nope.
Funny how the only Republicans the MSM likes or thinks are “worthy” of being elected are those who aren’t.
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