Posted on 11/01/2010 5:40:30 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Having both former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and rock legend Ted Nugent in state over the weekend has created some serious ripples, including one from the Manchin campaign.
In response to the overflow crowd of 2,700+ at Charleston's Haddad Riverfront Park for Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Raese this past Saturday, the Manchin staff hastily announced that former President Bill Clinton would return to campaign for Manchin on Monday, this time in Beckley.
Still, Raese has one more rabbit to pull from his brown Stetson in the form of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who will campaign with Raese in Harrison and Marion Counties, also on Monday.
So what's left for Manchin to do in this elaborate game of political chess?
"Well, despite the obvious gains Raese has made over the weekend with this blowout publicity from the Nugent/Palin rally in Charleston, I think we know the Manchin campaign well enough to know that they have no fear of insulting the voters' intelligence," said Jack Ellis, HNN's Senior Political Analyst. "So I am willing to predict here today that the Manchin campaign's unofficial pollster, PPP, will try to tell us that the Governor is still ahead one more time on Monday."
"Many people believe that PPP was a Manchin plant all along, and it's easy to see why," said Ellis. "Except in their first poll that showed Raese ahead by 3 points, every poll they've released since then has shown Manchin way ahead--even when every other poll being done showed Raese winning or a tie ballgame. It does seem a little fishy, doesn't it?"
"PPP is a Democratic pollster out of North Carolina, and nobody has been able to explain to me what stake they would have in a West Virginia U.S. Senate race unless they were working for the Democratic candidate or the Democratic Party somehow," said Ellis. "Polling costs money, and polling companies don't lay out the expense to cover a race like this without a good reason. So why are they here?"
"Just as we've experienced on several Fridays this campaign season, now we await the last toot out of PPP, a polling company nobody had ever heard of in West Virginia until this year," said Ellis. "But it really doesn't matter what their results are, because we know that they are going to be pro-Manchin and have little to do with where things really stand. PPP appears to be here to show the Democratic base that Joe is viable, that's all."
"I've learned, as many already have, to just disregard PPP's claims," said Ellis. "They're almost as questionable as Curt Wilkerson's polls."
Most pollsters have been somewhat consistent from week to week, showing only gradual trends, if any. PPP has been all over the map. Just a week or two ago, they had Sestak leading by 3 in PA, then a couple of days later, they had Toomey wining by 7. Same scenario in many other races.
Rasmussen shows Manchin up by 4 percent this morning.
Rasmussen has Manchin’s lead growing a bit further. Ras has Manchin up 4 now.
Most pollsters are showing the same thing. Manchin is basically running as a conservative, and that has helped to move into a slight lead.
The generic likely voter numbers are favoring Republicans by such large numbers now that Manchin still might lose just based on who actually shows up.
To be honest Raese didn’t make the adjustment in his campaign advertising. He should not be talking about Manchin rubber stamp crap. He now should have moved last week to West Virginia will decide if Obama keeps the Senate. Only one state and one vote (yours) will decide. He just didn’t make the marketing adjustment.
Exactly. Raese needed/needs to tell WV voters that they alone will decide if Obama keeps control of the Senate. It will all come down to WV.
WV can decide if it wants Dem control and cap and trade or GOP control and no cap and trade. Very simple message.
If Raese is within 4 points, Manchin will lose because he has a (D) after his name. How many Republicans and independents will be comfortable voting for a Democrat, when it could mean another 2 - 6 years of this horror?
And people will say to themselves that they will not be voting against Manchin. They will still have him as Governor. I bet there are a lot of voters that will think that way.
any Dem who is 10% or under ahead is in danger of going out on Tuesday, a generic push of 6% from the republicans will put them out.
That puts the entire senate in play.
I (and others on FR) find it TOTALLY amazing how you are able to (since you joined FR on 09-24-2010) type ANYTHING readable with your current cranial position being in a permanent shoulder deep insertion of Karl Rove's rectal cavity, although it does explain the RINO word and idea content due to the quality of air you consume versus the rest of us here in the real conservative FR posting world.
IMHO, you are NOTHING but a "useless FR bandwidth user".
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