Posted on 09/26/2010 3:47:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
So I figure like a lot of you already have, I need to put my ass on the line and make a projection this year. I delayed this as long as I could, wanting to see how things shake out and hoping things got a bit better for Team Blue. They did, and they didn't: we got Christie O'Donnell, but Russ Feingold is now locked in a tight race.
So here we go. For the record, I have a Republican pickup of six seats right now. Pickups are designated in bold. I have determined for my purposes, its cowardly to call a race a tossup, so I don't have that category in my rankings. I don't have the Dems picking up any Republican seats, although I hold out the most hope in Kentucky. I'm going to try to do this for governors races (and if I get really ambitious, the House) at a later date.
Safe Dem
Oregon - Ron Wyden - D-incumbent New York A - Chuck Schumer - D-incumbent Maryland - Barbara Milkulski - D-incumbent Hawaii - Daniel Inouye - D-incumbent Vermont - Patrick Leahy - D-incumbent
Safe Republican
Alabama - Richard Shelby - R-incumbent Arizona - John McCain - R-incumbent Idaho - Mike Crapo - R-incumbent South Dakota - John Thune - R-incumbent Iowa - Chuck Grassley - R-incumbent. I thought this one might have more potential at one point, but I don't see it now. Oklahoma - Tom Coburn - R incumbent South Carolina - Jim DeMint - R incumbent. Georgia - Johnny Isakson - R incumbent Kansas - Jerry Moran - Republican challenger Utah - Mike Lee - Republican challenger North Dakota - John Hoeven - Republican challenger. Wouldn't it have been great if Kos had been able to convince the tea partiers to challenge him?
Likely Democrat
Delaware - Chris Coons vs. Christine O'Donnell. If Mike Castle decides to run here, I might revisit this. But for now, I'm assuming he doesn't do a write in, and Coons wins it pretty big.
New York B - Kirstin Gillibrand v. Joe DioGuardi. It's possible DioGuardi could pick up some momentum in the next month. Gillibrand is still somewhat unknown downstate, but even thought this might get closer I think DioGuardi is too weak of a candidate
Lean Democrat
California - Barbara Boxer vs. Carly Fiorna. Boxer has never been the most popular politician, but Obama is not as unpopular in California as elsewhere and Fiorna is a very beatable opponent. This might be close, but Boxer will pull it out.
Washington - Patty Murray vs. Dino Rossi. I've been pleasantly surprised at the way this race is going. I was very worried about Murray a month ago. Not so much now.
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal vs. Linda McMahon. I worry about this one, but in the end, I just don't see how McMahon overcomes the anchor that is pro-wrestling in mostly white collar Connecticut. Blumenthal needs to step up his game though. This needs to change to likely Republican.
Nevada - Harry Reid vs. Sharon Angle. The polls have been close, and some might argue Angle has a bit of momentum, but I think Reid pulls it out because minorities in Nevada are consistently underpolled, and the Democratic machine is strong.
West Virginia - Joe Manchin vs. John Raese. I'm actually more worried about this one than any of my other Lean Democrats. This is definitely 1996 Nebraska Senate Race (popular incumbent governor is defeated by underdog Republican) vs. 2010 PA-12 (Democrat wins against business guy in potentially hostile non-urban environment). I think Raese is a weaker candidate than Chuck Hagel in 1996, so I'm still giving this to Manchin. But it's gonna be close.
Pennsylvania - Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey. I know, I know. The polls don't show this right now. But Sestak should not be underestimated as a campaigner, and I still think once he gets on television he will close just like he did against Specter. Also, I still see Toomey as too conservative for Pennsylvania. I hope so, anyway.
Likely Republican
Arkansas - Blanche Lincoln vs. John Boozeman. I think this one will be closer than anyone predicts. Lincoln has a lot of money, and Boozeman seems to me to be a weak candidate. But I think it's too large of gap at this point for Blanche to overcome, especially without any union support.
Indiana - Dan Coates vs. Brad Ellsworth I had high hopes for this one a couple of months ago, but Ellsworth isn't getting the job done, and Coates is proving to be a pretty good fundraiser, and non-crazy. I just don't see Ellsworth making up lost ground at this point.
North Carolina - Richard Burr vs. Elaine Marshall. Burr was/is definitely vulnerable. But Marshall is the wrong candidate running in the wrong year.
Florida - Charlie Crist vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Marco Rubio. Some people may see this as premature, but unless something happens to change the dynamic (say, Meek endorsing Crist or vice versa), I think Rubio wins this pretty easily.
Louisiana - David Vitter v. Charlie Melancon. For the forseeable future, there is going to be no right year for a Democrat to run for Senate in the Louisiana. Melancon is also hurt by the gulf oil spill fading as an issue.
Ohio - Lee Fisher vs. Rob Portman. Like Florida, some people may say this is premature, but Fisher is fading fast, with no money to make up lost ground. I expect the DSCC to abandon this race just as the Republicans abandoned Mike DeWine in 2006.
Lean Republican
Kentucky - Rand Paul vs. Jack Conaway. I do think this is still a race, but Paul is still a couple of gaffes away from losing. The debate next week will be crucial.
Alaska - Joe Miller vs. Lisa Murkowski vs. Scott McAdams. I go back and forth on whether this is lean or likely Republican, but I do think Murkowski's write in campaign will hurt Miller more than McAdams (as opposed to if she were on the ballot). Still, I don't see this as a genuine tossup yet.
New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte vs. Paul Hodes. I've always thought Hodes is a weak campaigner, and Ayotte has got a united Republican party on her side. New Hampshire is moving rapidly to blue, but I'm not sure it's rapidly enough to save Hodes, although Palin's endoresement of Ayotte will hurt her from this point forward.
Missouri - Robin Carnahan vs. Roy Blunt. Actually, this should be Robin Carnahan vs. the national environment, because in the 2006 or 2008 she would have probably beat Blunt easily. Not this year, though, and Obama is very unpopular in Missouri. This is tossup, but favors the Republican at this point.
Colorado - Ken Buck v. Michael Bennett I think Buck is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, stronger than Angle and Paul certainly. This is one race that I expect to trend against the Democrats as time goes on, although Bennett will be helped by the clusterf*ck for the Republicans in the governors race.
Illinois - Mark Kirk vs. Alexi Giannoulias This one may surpise some people, and it's the pursest tossup of any race I have on my list. What makes me think Kirk wins: there's a lot of unhappiness with Democrats in Illinois right now, Kirk is moderate, Kirk gets the benefit of Brady's downstate pull and Pat Quinn is turning out to be a disaster of a candidate. Kirk is so far the luckiest Republican of this cycle - if the Illinois primary had been a couple of months later, he would have been tea-partied out of existence.
Wisconin - Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson This one breaks my heart, because I love Russ Feingold as a Senator. But I don't think anyone can doubt he's behind at this point, though by how much is debatable. He needs to change the momentum here, fast.
McMahon has a chance in CT.
A “chance”.
Not bad for a Lefty, but let’s be honest:
PA is almost a certain lock for Toomey. We have pulled ahead in WV and NV.
We are within striking distance of NY, CA, DE (O’Donnell will come back here) and CT.
That is my 2 cents.
Looks like more Hope than sense from a dispirited Democrat.
He’s giving way too many losing Democrats the benefit of his bias.
There is no way Sestak is winning PA. Absolutely no way.
I also think Repubs will be victorious in NV and WV. There’s a chance we can grab CT and CA. I don’t think we will win WA or DE.
If COD keeps her cool, comes out with a hard-hitting ad campaign, and surrounds herself with hardened conservative pros who know how to work with others, she will win hanidly.
“Indiana - Dan Coates vs. Brad Ellsworth I had high hopes for this one a couple of months ago, but Ellsworth isn’t getting the job done, and Coates is proving to be a pretty good fundraiser, and non-crazy. I just don’t see Ellsworth making up lost ground at this point.”
Dan Coats is going to win and will probably win big over Ellsworth. I also suspect Representatives Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly may be looking for work after November.
Andre Carson, however, is probably going to keep his grandma’s old seat for at least another 2 years (One more reason why all my relatives in Indiana have moved out of Marion County.)
Delaware - Chris Coons vs. Christine O’Donnell. – I would actually make this one leans Republican. O’Donnell is down but really hasn’t had time to hit the airwaves yet and I believe she will pull it out.
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal vs. Linda McMahon. – Call me naïve but I think this is a toss up at least and could soon turn lean Republican
Nevada - Harry Reid vs. Sharon Angle – I see this one again in the toss up category with a lean Republican sense. Reid is too low in the polls and Angle will pull this one out.
Pennsylvania - Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey – Again, toss up but I don’t think Sestak can pull it out. He has too many negatives and Toomey will pull it out in the end.
Kentucky - Rand Paul vs. Jack Conaway – I’d put this one in the likely Republican.
Alaska - Joe Miller vs. Lisa Murkowski vs. Scott McAdams – Again likely not lean.
[Angle has a bit of momentum, but I think Reid pulls it out ]
If Reid hasn’t locked it up already as vicious as he has been, I don’t see how he does it.
Besides, my book on Harry Reid is sooo damning, we’ll see if he can survive it’s undercurrent. I have not been able to break through to the papers in the State, some because of liberal bias and some because I’ve had to run an underfunded guerilla campaign. But that could all change in a heartbeat. We’ll see. I am literally the wildcard.
Angle will beat Reid in the end, despite the "machine". Gillibrand is in a real pickle - she's been in that seat for months, and nobody knows her. And, I think the corruption allegations coming out about Manchin will hurt him badly - that looks like a race destined to go to recount. :)
Be seems to think all the Republicans are “weak” candidates, and the Democrats are mostly “strong” candidates. Even as he admits the polls don’t bear it out.
But thinking Sestak is going to win PA?
Delusional!
And even he admits, though, that his belief that Toomey is “too conservative for Pennsylvania” is just based on his own personal “Hope”.
But I think, unfortunately for Democrats like Mark Hanna, that Change is going to beat out Hope in this election.
I don’t “know” the New Englanders but I do know there are a lot of company headquarters in this state because of tax shelters. Maybe some of those “white collar” people will see “wrasklin’” as just another bidness.
Remember Eddie and wife are a machine in themselves. Also bear in mind that Philly has seen several elections over the last 20 or 30 years that had documented cases of voter turnout consistently being over 110% of the electorate! Expect nothing less this time.
Agree except for Toomey and Raese. Angle is too close to call.
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
Toomey has led in every single poll. I think Raese is gaining and that could be the biggest upset of the cycle. If the gain is 6 seats and they get up to 47 that will be a little disappointing but at least it will severely weaken the Dems’ power. It also puts Republicans in a good position to take back the majority in ‘12. They would have done it this year but after losing 15 seats in the last 2 elections it was just too difficult.
He says NH is trending blue?? It was but not anymore. Don’t know where he gets that idea when Ayotte is favored to win the Senate seat, Republicans could easily take both US House seats back, and Gov Lynch is in a tight race when they thought he would cruise to reelection. I think now that the Bush era is over and NH is seeing the reality of far left leadership from DC they might be returning to their small government roots.
I have them at plus 9. This guy’s 6 plus Toomey and Sestak plus 1 from Angle, McMahon or a true upset. I think the house will be an astonishing bloodbath-I have the GOP picking up over 60 and possibly 70
Wouldn't it have been great if Kos had been able to convince the tea partiers to challenge him?
This is a good portion of how they play the game. Subterfuge, sow dissent, do a little astrotufing and accuse the other side. The Cloward-Pivens strategy being implemented with The One Community Organizer leading the way.
I generally agree. He’s off on the Toomey/Sestak race, because I think Toomey will pull that one out because Sestak is too far left, even for liberal Pennsylvania.
As for California, Fiorina gave Boxer a scare, but it’s looking like Boxer is gaining the upper hand there — this is, after all, California, which adores 0bama, despite the damage he’s done to their economy. Ditto for Murray in Washington.
I’m encouraged by developments in West Virginia and Wisconsin, though. Manchin and Feingold are getting a strong challenge in places the dems hadn’t planned.
As for Delaware, I really like the policy statements of Christine O’Donnell and have donated to her campaign, but she’s a conservative fighting almost a 90-degree uphill battle against a hard-core liberal. Yes, Coons has admitted to being a marxist, but there needs to be something more to pin on him, because apparently lefty little Delaware is OK with a marxist Senator. At the same time, I realize her nomination was more a statement about kicking RINOs out of the GOP than a competitive bid for the Senate. Hopefully, the GOP has gotten the message that the conservative wing is serious, even at the cost a Senate seat.
My prediction: a net gain of 6 seats for the GOP (IF Rand Paul survives). It’s well short of the majority, and shy of the “tsunami” so many have expected, but enough to put a serious dent in 0bama’s agenda.
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