Palin, Huckabee Top Choice for U.S. Republicans

American supporters of the Republican Party pick former presidential hopefuls Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee as favourites to represent the GOP in the 2012 election, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 51 per cent of respondents say Palin would be a good president, up four points since November 2009.

Huckabee is second on the list of politicians deemed capable for the job with 50 per cent, followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani both with 48 per cent, former speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich with 42 per cent—up 14 points—and former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice with 38 per cent. Support is lower for Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal, Texas congressman Ron Paul, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, and Republican National Committee (RNC) chairman Michael Steele.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2008, Democratic nominee Barack Obama secured a majority of electoral votes, defeating Republican candidate John McCain. On Jan. 20, Obama became the first African American president in U.S. history.

On Aug. 3, Huckabee criticized a judge’s decision to strike down some provisions of a controversial anti-illegal immigration law approved in Arizona—which is currently being challenged by the federal government. Huckabee declared: "Last week’s decision by U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton is just another example of an activist judge putting their ideas ahead of the law. (...) Yet her decision did nothing to help the people of Arizona deal with these serious public safety concerns."

Several politicians have been mentioned as possible presidential candidates for the Republican Party in 2012. For each of these politicians, please say whether you think they would make a good president or a bad president. – Republican Party Supporters, "Good President"

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion Methodology: Online interviews with 1,003 American adults, conducted on Jul. 14 and Jul. 15, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

There were some potentially formidable candidates who weren’t even mentioned in the poll, such as Mitch Daniels and Haley Barbour.

The polls so far seem to presume that the field is going to be limited to 2008 retreads like Huckabee, Romney, and Palin, but what you pointed out shows that they’ll have some serious disadvantages when they go up against candidates without built-in negatives.

Without Sarah Palin running, we would again have 2008 redux, many moderates with conservatives having to decide which moderate “flavor” to support. But with Palin running in 2012, conservatives have no excuse in 2012 with a Reagan conservative being very viable. If you are a conservative, by virtue of the this poll you have a Hobson choice, either vote for Palin or stop complaining that the MSM picks the GOP candidates who is most RINOish. And if you are a conservative there is no second choice or conservative dark horse that is going to emerge. If there was, why did none appear in 2008? For conservatives it has to be Palin.

I'm not sure how you get all that out of the poll. There were several potential candidates who weren't even mentioned in the poll.

All this shows is that the 2008 candidates, unsurprisingly, have greater name recognition. That is hardly an insurmountable advantage 18 months before the Iowa caucus. It also shows that several of the 2008 names, Palin included, have serious disadvantages in the number of Republicans who already have a negative opinion of them.

As for why no "conservative dark horse" appeared in 2008, that may be due to the fact that any Republican was going to have a hard time winning after 8 years of Bush. Rightly or wrongly, the Republican "brand" was radioactive, and a lot of potential candidates might have seen the writing on the wall after the 2006 debacle.

Also, a number of potential candidates will have more governing experience under their belts and more credibility in 2012 than they had in 2008. That's one thing that can't be said for Huckabee, Romney, or Palin.

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