Posted on 07/19/2010 2:40:27 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With Democrats headed for a man-made disaster in November and the Obama presidency increasingly looking like a quagmired domestic-contingency operation, speculation about Hillary Clinton running for president in 2012 is on the rise. We know Secretary Clinton has a strong desire to be the president, but will she step down as Secretary of State and challenge Barack Obama, the first African-American president and a fellow Democrat? And if she won her party’s nomination what are her prospects for winning the general election?
The conventional wisdom is that if President Obama begins governing more from the center after losses in the 2010 elections and gets his approval rating up around 50 percent, Secretary Clinton is unlikely to challenge him. If Obama’s approval ratings continue to tank, and he looks more like Jimmy Carter than Bill Clinton, there is a good chance Clinton will challenge Obama as Ted Kennedy challenged an unpopular Carter in 1980. Kennedy, of course, failed to capture the nomination because Chappaquiddick and other issues got in the way; and Clinton is by no means a shoo-in for the nomination in 2012 regardless of Obama’s poll numbers.
Let’s assume, however, for the sake of argument, that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination in 2012—without the majority of African-American voters that are unlikely to abandon Obama. Could she assemble a winning coalition in November, and who would be the most difficult Republican to defeat?
Assembling a winning coalition following a divisive intra-party struggle in an environment where the majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the way Democrats have been governing won’t be easy. Many disaffected Democrats, especially African Americans, are likely to stay home on Election Day. Many Independents who voted for Obama in 2008, suffered buyers remorse, and believe the country has shifted too far to the left are likely to vote Republican.
Nevertheless, Hillary Clinton would give any Republican a run for their money and indeed could win the 2012 election under the right circumstances. She’s an experienced campaigner, she has a deep reservoir of talented Democratic political operatives she can call on, and she knows every trick in the Democrats’ playbook.
Much, then, will depend on which Republican Clinton is up against. Right now the top four prospects for the Republican nomination are Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin. A recent poll by Public Policy Polling matched them up against Barack Obama in a 2012 race. “He trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45, and is even tied with Sarah Palin at 46 . . .”
What’s noteworthy about this poll is not that three out of four Republicans beat Obama in these hypothetical matchups, but that Sarah Palin tied him. It’s Palin that Democrats and some Republicans have written off as the least likely Republican to win the 2012 election. The results of this and other polls belie that. Increasingly, she’s looking more like a viable candidate. As I wrote back in February, Sarah Palin’s presidential prospects are not as bad as some would lead you to believe—a judgment others now are coming to.
So how would these four Republicans stack up against Hillary Clinton? Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until someone runs a poll to find out. It’s the matchup between Clinton and Palin, however, which would be the most interesting. Not only would we have two women vying to become the first female President of the United States, making it a foregone conclusion, but, contrary to what many pundits believe, it’s Palin that could be the most difficult for Clinton to defeat.
Clinton’s strategy—or Obama’s for that matter—running against Romney, Gingrich, or Huckabee is to portray them as the same old white-male establishment Republicans the party has been offering up for decades, that they represent the past, not the future, and the failed policies of the George W. Bush administration. In 2008 Obama used that approach effectively against John McCain, and Clinton can use it effectively against them.
Women voters will play an important role in the 2012 with or without a woman on the ballot. Concerns about the economy, health care reform, and other pocketbook issues have them very concerned. More so than in past years, it is women that could cast the deciding votes.
Because the majority of women traditionally vote Democratic, that gives Hillary the advantage with women if she’s running against a middle-aged white-male Republican. If Sarah Palin topped the Republican ticket, however, that calculus doesn’t necessarily hold. The ranks of conservative women are growing, they make up a majority of Tea Party supporters, and many Independent and some Democratic women are drawn to Palin.
Past polling on women’s attitudes toward Clinton or Palin doesn’t necessarily predict how they might vote in 2012 if these two women were on the ballot. Voters won’t view Hillary Clinton or Sarah Palin through the same lenses they viewed them through in 2008. Liberalism’s excesses and failures during Obama’s term will have diminished the value of the liberal “Hillary” brand, and the left’s attempt to portray Sarah Palin as dumb and uninformed will have been exposed, as it largely has been already, for what it is—fear of Palin’s appeal.
2012 is still geological ages away in political terms as the cliché goes, but the possibility of a Clinton-Palin contest is not far fetched. Both women are major political forces in their respective parties, and both have their eyes on the Oval Office. Stranger things have happened in American politics.
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Ed Ross is the President and Chief Executive Officer of EWRoss International LLC, a company that provides global consulting services to clients in the international defense marketplace. He publishes commentary at EWRoss.com.
This independent turned Republican (strictly to support Palin in the 2012 primary) aim to see her as the nominee and next president.
I put the odds at 1 in a million.
I dont doubt Hillary is still interested, but I simply cannot see the Republican party nominating Palin. If she runs, the media will destroy her in the states where the dems can cross over and vote in primaries.
Sarah is too polarizing a figure. Like her or not, they would wipe the floor with her. She is smart enough to know that.
I’ve been predicting that Hillary will announce her resignation some time before the November election.
Palin would never get elected.
They’ve been trying to destroy her 24/7 since the day she was nominated for the vice presidency. It’s not working. She is MUCH stronger now than she was in September 2008.
Go ahead and report back that you convinced us not to support her. We’re all 200% behind Mitt Romney, as your masters wish...
This is the match up I’ve been predicting. I hope it happens. You think the Leftists went ape-doody when Palin ran for VeeP? That’s nothing compared to what you’ll see in 2012! The 2012 election will be have some major fireworks so get your popcorn, nachos, beer, and carbonated, liquid beverages and anything else that will make it more fun!
Would a Romney-Palin ticket do it?
If I was reporting to some random person as you suggest, and actually thought she wouldn’t get elected, don’t you think I’d be pushing people to run her in the primary elections?
Idiot.
No, they fear her. The flop sweat is nauseating when they write their diatribes and rants.
Actually, the Dems will cross over and vote for her in the primaries where they can because they think she’s a pushover, the fools.
I dont disagree, but you also have to admit that we pay WAY more attention than the average bear.
If she runs, expect the full force of the media blitz to come on. They will make her out to the the politician “who’s name must not be mentioned.”
Very doubtful Hillary or Palin will run. Palin is very smart, a quick study for certain, but she can not compete intellectually against historians, nor will her rather local experience pass muster in times such as these. These are the very reasons she will not run, but it is reported that she would be a heavy hitter to replace Steele to head the national republican party.
THAT is much more likely.
Through her own campaign, Palin will have the opportunity to speak directly to American voters. 70% may discover they agree with her on 90% of the issues.
Sarah Palin will NEVER be RNC chair (although it's the wet dream of most RINOs as a means of destroying her). The RNC chair has one vote and the country club RINOs on the RNC would be working to bury her from day 1.
She wields far more power as Sarah Palin, particularly if a number of her Mama Grizzlies and Papa bears get elected.
Only if you want to piss off all of his supporters and all of her's as well.
Clinton will run only if Obama announces he’s not running. She won’t challenge a sitting president for the primaries. And I expect Obama will run again.
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