Posted on 01/08/2010 9:57:09 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Hotline on Call has a new poll that provides good news for former Massachuetts Gov. Mitt Romney and bad news for Mitt Romney. And it has bad news for former Gov. Sarah Palin and good news for Sarah Palin.
The news: GOP insiders think Romney is way in front for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination while Palin has an awful lot of catching up to do. Literally:
Voters were asked to rank 5 candidates in the order of likeliness to capture the GOP nod. The results:
Likely To Win WH’12 Nomination (First place votes)
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney 81 points (62%)
MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty 46 (9%)
Sen. John Thune 38 (12%)
MS Gov. Haley Barbour 28 (6%)
IN Gov. Mitch Daniels 25
Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin 25
Rounding out the top 10: Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal. Candidates other than Romney, Pawlenty, Thune and Barbour split the remaining 11% of first-place votes.
What does this likely mean?
Candidates who are at the front of these polls often enjoy a boost in terms of fundraising. But they walk around with big, fat, brightly colored letters on their backs. Competitors within their own party need to cut them down to size. The media begins to scrutinize every word, sentence, eyebrow movement (the media narrative usually works out to the candidate is in front, the candidate slips, the candidate is through, the candidate makes a comeback). Romney’s biggest strength may be that if the economy is still sour in 2010 (and the latest numbers spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Barack Obama and the Democratic party) he will be a “natural” due to his expertise. His biggest drawback: the fact that he has had more flip flops than a Walmart in Miam Beach. Conservatives didn’t trust him in 2008 until he seemed the last hope but now that Palin is in the mix, they don’t need to trust him anymore.
The U.S. is passing through a very strong anti-incumbency and anti-party apparatus cycle. This will likely benefit Palin, who is proving to be a world unto herself. Approving smiles and hosanas from the party apparatus and GOP elites could make her less appealing to some GOPers, particularly those in the Tea Party Protest movement. Although Palin pushes the polemical envelope, she still seems more of a de facto Tea Party Movement candidate than like a crack in a teapot — as some members of the movement seem to be. Palin remains anathema to most Democrats, some independent voters and some traditional and/or first George HW Bush style Republicans. This poll burnishes her outside-the-party-establishment credentials: Hey, she’s not one of those other hacks supported by party establishments.
This poll comes against the backdrop of members of both parties becoming increasingly disillusioned with their party establishments — and their recent Presidents.
Many conservatives were unhappy with the policies of George W. Bush and many talk show political culture conservatives feel the party establishment doesn’t get it when it comes to the meaning of what they consider to be today’s conservativism. Many liberal Democrats are now — with increasing volume — expressing their disappointment with Barack Obama. And they feel their party leadership is taking liberal Democrats for granted. And voters from both parties and no parties increasingly would wash their kids’ mouths out with soap if a kid said they wanted to grow up to run for Congress.
Much will depend on what happens the next few years. Nothing is as fleeting as the conventional wisdom. If there are big improvements in the economy, if Congress passes some measure that enhance the economy, health care, national security, if there aren’t major scandals in both parties, if elected officials seem to genuinely follow principles versus craven clawing for votes — the anti-incumbent move could shift by 2010 or 2012.
But, as my grandmother used to say:
“If I had wheels I’d be a trolley car.”
UPDATE: Here’s how RealClearPolitics (a must-read site) see it, from the first and last paragraph of its post:
A plurality of Republican operatives say Mitt Romney would be their party’s strongest nominee in the 2012 presidential contest, while Sarah Palin, the 2008 vice presidential nominee, barely makes the top 10.
….NJ’s Jim Barnes, who runs the poll, notes that “although the Insiders Poll doesn’t have a terrific record of quickly sorting out who will actually win a nomination, it helps stake out the playing field — and identify the serious players.”
fornicate all insiders
Could not have said it better myself. Thanks
“GOP Insiders” should be relegated to the outside...in the cold.
Who are the "GOP Insiders"? Is this the same group of RINOs that gave us Dole and McLame? If so, I smell a very large rat and probably an even larger payoff!
GOP insiders think they know better than We the People.
GOP insiders, I fart in your general direction.
ROMNEY!!! I go 3rd party if they do that.
Sarah is our candidate. She is one of us. She is not someone who merely speaks lipservice to liberty and the greatness of this nation and its traditions. She exemplifies the hard working pioneer spirit, the indpendent sovereign citizen, the everyman and everywoman who works hard and doesn’t expect anything they can not earn themselves. The rest are posers to the throne, we know they should not be President by the fact that they would ride their horse to Washington not on the wings of liberty and the principles of free men but on acquisence to a corrupt political popular culture that is souless and an embarassment.
I’m not sure the “GOP Insiders” understand how close they are to losing the base to a thirds party, such as a “Tea Party”.
A lot of those folks are full of bullish.
BINGO!
Is that why the GOP’s fund-raising efforts are in the pits?
Anyone who is backed by idiotic GOP “insiders” like Steve Schmidt and the rest of the motley crew of treacherous McCain campaign staff is doomed to failure.
Hey GOP insiders: America is rising. Not unlike a certain Mama Grizzly which also happens to be rising. You’re toast guys!
Palin for president Pawlenty for VP 2012.
GOP better wise up, and fast.
Look for the media to choose Mitt as the Republican nominee, just like they did with McCrazy. They’ll swoon over him until he gets the nod. Then they’ll discover that he’s the anti-christ.
Given Romney as 2012 Republican candidate, I will be voting for Ron Paul or Palin write-in.
ROMNEY? ARE THEY NUTS?
SEN. THUNE? YEAH, RIGHT. WHO IS HE AGAIN? OH. I FORGOT THE SILENT TYPE.
PAWLENTY, BARBOUR, DANIELS, ETC.>>> THE GOVERNANCE PROBLEMS IN MN, MS, AND “IN” ARE HUGE COMPARED TO PALIN’S AK. OF COURSE, THEY ARE NOT BEING EXPOSED BY THE LYING MSM ... “YET”! JUST WAIT.
[YES, I’M SHOUTING!]
GOP Insiders = Democrat wannabes
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