Posted on 01/08/2010 9:57:09 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Hotline on Call has a new poll that provides good news for former Massachuetts Gov. Mitt Romney and bad news for Mitt Romney. And it has bad news for former Gov. Sarah Palin and good news for Sarah Palin.
The news: GOP insiders think Romney is way in front for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination while Palin has an awful lot of catching up to do. Literally:
Voters were asked to rank 5 candidates in the order of likeliness to capture the GOP nod. The results:
Likely To Win WH’12 Nomination (First place votes)
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney 81 points (62%)
MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty 46 (9%)
Sen. John Thune 38 (12%)
MS Gov. Haley Barbour 28 (6%)
IN Gov. Mitch Daniels 25
Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin 25
Rounding out the top 10: Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal. Candidates other than Romney, Pawlenty, Thune and Barbour split the remaining 11% of first-place votes.
What does this likely mean?
Candidates who are at the front of these polls often enjoy a boost in terms of fundraising. But they walk around with big, fat, brightly colored letters on their backs. Competitors within their own party need to cut them down to size. The media begins to scrutinize every word, sentence, eyebrow movement (the media narrative usually works out to the candidate is in front, the candidate slips, the candidate is through, the candidate makes a comeback). Romney’s biggest strength may be that if the economy is still sour in 2010 (and the latest numbers spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Barack Obama and the Democratic party) he will be a “natural” due to his expertise. His biggest drawback: the fact that he has had more flip flops than a Walmart in Miam Beach. Conservatives didn’t trust him in 2008 until he seemed the last hope but now that Palin is in the mix, they don’t need to trust him anymore.
The U.S. is passing through a very strong anti-incumbency and anti-party apparatus cycle. This will likely benefit Palin, who is proving to be a world unto herself. Approving smiles and hosanas from the party apparatus and GOP elites could make her less appealing to some GOPers, particularly those in the Tea Party Protest movement. Although Palin pushes the polemical envelope, she still seems more of a de facto Tea Party Movement candidate than like a crack in a teapot — as some members of the movement seem to be. Palin remains anathema to most Democrats, some independent voters and some traditional and/or first George HW Bush style Republicans. This poll burnishes her outside-the-party-establishment credentials: Hey, she’s not one of those other hacks supported by party establishments.
This poll comes against the backdrop of members of both parties becoming increasingly disillusioned with their party establishments — and their recent Presidents.
Many conservatives were unhappy with the policies of George W. Bush and many talk show political culture conservatives feel the party establishment doesn’t get it when it comes to the meaning of what they consider to be today’s conservativism. Many liberal Democrats are now — with increasing volume — expressing their disappointment with Barack Obama. And they feel their party leadership is taking liberal Democrats for granted. And voters from both parties and no parties increasingly would wash their kids’ mouths out with soap if a kid said they wanted to grow up to run for Congress.
Much will depend on what happens the next few years. Nothing is as fleeting as the conventional wisdom. If there are big improvements in the economy, if Congress passes some measure that enhance the economy, health care, national security, if there aren’t major scandals in both parties, if elected officials seem to genuinely follow principles versus craven clawing for votes — the anti-incumbent move could shift by 2010 or 2012.
But, as my grandmother used to say:
“If I had wheels I’d be a trolley car.”
UPDATE: Here’s how RealClearPolitics (a must-read site) see it, from the first and last paragraph of its post:
A plurality of Republican operatives say Mitt Romney would be their party’s strongest nominee in the 2012 presidential contest, while Sarah Palin, the 2008 vice presidential nominee, barely makes the top 10.
….NJ’s Jim Barnes, who runs the poll, notes that “although the Insiders Poll doesn’t have a terrific record of quickly sorting out who will actually win a nomination, it helps stake out the playing field — and identify the serious players.”
I might be able to vote for Pawlenty if he comes out and loudly refutes his Cap & Trade support as pure stupidity and names Al Gore's racket a pure fraud.
I don't think Pawlenty will do that, so I can't support him and Sarah can do so much better than Pawlenty anyway.
after NY23, GOP insiders have shown themselves to be untrustworthy... and Romney is still vulnerable on the non-stop mormon bashing the press gave him last time.
sorry mitt, i was in your camp last round... but you were unable to defeat the mormon bashing of the press, and therefore lost the uber right.
i see Sarah as the only hope for restoring America to her rightful path... and i also recognize the GOPs attempts to dilute her popularity instead of embracing.
the RNC has lost it.
i predict a new party formed from the tea party people... dems, independent and republicans. all conservative, small government, strong defense people.
umm...err....where’s Sen. Jim Demint’s name on list?
I hear you about his credentials RJL but I think he could be the soothing part of the ticket for indies and moderates who we may need some of. I just want Obama out of there and Sarah in there anyway, anyhow. What are your takes on a good vp? What about this Peter Schiff guy I keep hearing about, too unknown?
I hear you about his credentials RJL but I think he could be the soothing part of the ticket for indies and moderates who we may need some of. I just want Obama out of there and Sarah in there anyway, anyhow. What are your takes on a good vp? What about this Peter Schiff guy I keep hearing about, too unknown?
Is the Michael Savage vote finally coming out for Romney 4 years later??
I don’t think they care.
I do not want the GOP insiders choosing my candidate anymore.
I have no doubt that he could have intervened and put a stop to the ACORN theft of Norm Coleman's Senate seat. If he had, 0bamacare and Cap'n'Tax would have never have gotten out of the gate.
You'd support Pawlenty if he tells you what you want to hear until after the election? Do you say "All is forgiven!" when McCain panders during an election year too?
I would like to know who are these “insiders”
I will not spend one ounce of time for the party if it’s Romney.
If it’s Romney; then the message is “screw you” to conservatives.
"I might be able to vote for Pawlenty".
While flawed, Pawlenty is no McCain and he's not my first or second choice for anything.
The little I've read or seen of Schiff's writing/speaking he seems very good.
Just one of many good VP picks would be Tom McClintock from California. He would be a very good VP and President after Sarah's two terms.
the GOP 'leadership' is the same in substance as the old Rockefeller-elitiest-Ford pre-Reagan clique; however, it is shrinking and I hope hurting from lack of donations. We will overrun them and a new party will emerge victorious.
rum=run.
(Of course Juan would be drinking cerveza, and with his good friends from LaRaza.)
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