Posted on 07/15/2009 7:28:30 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Ed Gillespie and Whit Ayres
DATE: July 15, 2009
RE: Political Shift Among Independent Voters
In 2000, 2002, and 2004, Republicans won national elections in large part because Independents looked more like Republicans than Democrats on the major issues of the day. In 2006 and 2008, Independents looked more like Democrats than Republicans, and consequently voted for Democratic candidates by substantial margins
Since April 2009, Resurgent Republic polling has shown Independents once again looking more like Republicans than Democrats on fiscal issues, interrogation of detainees, and health care reform. The longer debates continue on these issues, the more Independents will gravitate toward supporting Republican positions. That bodes well for Republican fortunes in 2010.
Public Polling from June and July Reveals a Trend
A CBS News poll records President Obama’s job approval at 50% among Independents which is an 8 point drop. On the economy, Independents are near evenly split with 46% approving of President Obama’s performance while 43% disapprove.
A recent Gallup survey showed President Obama’s job approval as low as 53% among Independents. This is a 10 point drop since May.
From June 30 to July 15, Rasmussen’s Presidential Approval Index recorded more voters strongly disapprove of President Obama’s job performance than those who strongly approve. On July 15, the Index was -7.
A Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia found that President Obama’s job approval is 48%, with 46% disapproval. By a 52% to 38% margin, Virginia Independents disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.
A Quinnipiac University poll in Ohio shows 48% of Independents disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job, while 38% approve. In addition, Ohio Independents disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy by a 56% to 33% margin.
A recent Rasmussen survey found that 51% of voters not affiliated with either party strongly oppose President Obama’s health care reform plan, a 12 point increase over the past two weeks.
In Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot, voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican candidate over the Democrat by a 39% to 19% margin.
A Trend Resurgent Republic Discovered in April
Independents prefer smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes. Overwhelming majorities of Independents (70%) and Republicans (90%) agree compared to Democrats (49%).
Independents have concerns about the size of President Obama’s budget and the deficit it will create. Majorities of Independents (56%) and Republicans (87%) are somewhat or strongly opposed compared to Democrats (70%) who somewhat or strongly support the President’s budget.
Independents believe that big spending programs create few private sector jobs. By a +13 margin, Independents hold this opinion over the idea that the federal government has to do more during times of economic crisis, and spending by the government stimulates the economy and creates jobs.
Independents have serious reservations about the costs of a cap-and-trade program. By a +17 margin, Independents believe raising taxes on energy while the economy is in recession far outweighs any benefits from companies that may lower energy consumption and rely on more alternative fuels.
Independents believe the “harsh interrogation of detainees” was justified. Independents (53%) believe the “harsh interrogation of detainees” was justified, while the majority of Democrats (57%) believe it was not justified.
Independents do not want a criminal investigation into harsh interrogation techniques. Two out of every three Independents (66%) agree that a criminal investigation will divide the country, criminalize policy disagreements, and have a negative impact on future efforts to keep America safe.
Independents favor a health care system where most Americans receive private insurance versus federal government coverage. Majorities of Independents (61%) and Republicans (87%) prefer a private insurance system, while a majority of Democrats (52%) prefer a federal government system.
Independents do not want health care reform to increase taxes or the deficit. Majorities of Independents (62%) and Republicans (75%) agree with the statement “reforming health care is important, but it should be done without raising taxes or increasing the deficit,” while only 38% of Democrats agreed (versus 57% of Democrats who agreed instead that “reforming health care is so important that the government should invest new resources to make sure it is done right”).
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Congress has hitched their wagon to the Muslim Messiah as they all drive over the cliff together. Apparently, these morons haven’t been back in their districts to feel the rage yet. Of course, their arrogance insulates them from reality.
I don’t believe them. By nature I think independents are nanny staters. But I could be wrong.
It will only get better for us because odumbo is too arrogant/ignorant to change his ways
Cap and Trade and Healthcare nightmares will make millions of Americans (eventually) see the light....and want to vote the scum out of office.
However, with Acorn in power and joblessness soaring, the middle class losing its economic power will mean little fight left by the time the fight is here in 2010 and 2012.
Zerobama KNOWS this and simply wants to drive his economically devastating legislation into our guts to the point that there will be not enough “guts” left out there to fight him.
“The longer debates continue on these issues, the more Independents will gravitate toward supporting Republican positions.”
And that is why Pelosi is hell bent in trying to pass the monstrous socialized health care bill before the House goes on August recess. The more the Dems hear from their furious constituents who object to their health care being rationed, or their doctors opting out of this mess, or the fact that they will be taxed more to pay for it, the less likely that they would come back in September and vote for it.
Cheapskate nanny-staters.
They don’t mind big gub’mint so long as they don’t have to pay for it.
Hence the “fiscal conservative, socially liberal” bullcrap that John Avlon and other self-annointed independent “leaders” endlessly spew.
Why? Easy: The reality of 0bama and the Democrat Congress’s policies (and thus horror) is beginning to sink in.
The most overlooked poll stat today:
Who would you vote for today?
Obama: 42% (46)
someone else 39% (30)
Diageo/Hotline poll
How could the independents have been this stupid. Didn’t they know what the Democrats wanted to do to this country? Haven’t they studied anything? They get what they deserve with the commies at the helm now; we all have to suffer for their stupidity
The poor ol’ independents are about as useless as their liberal Repblican second cousins.
Buyers’ remorse. Ignorance is bliss. It’s all the same.
Those “independents” were mainly wanting to stick it to GWB.
When decisions need to be made, poll numbers will always drop.
When BAD decisions are made, poll numbers drop a bit faster!
Even more stupid....this includes conservatives ‘cause they didn’t like McRino [neither did I]...they stayed home and now have lost jobs, can’t pay their bills, feed their families and this usurper they allowed to be elected...is setting America up so these folks will never have what they had under Bush or what they’d have had under McRino.
Granny and Grandad who voted for Hussein are gonna get screwed big time....may actually cost them their lives.
1.Healthcare rationing - granny your are over 62 - you don’t need that hip replacement. A 40 year old illegal alien needs a bypass. God help granny when she gets over 70 years old and she gets sick. The Dems will offe her a little pill for “the good of the state.”
2. Cap & Trade will be VERY inflationary. Higher electrical bills, energy bills which will drive up food costs and EVERYTHING else. This will hit seniors the hardest.
These laws are elder abuse.
They were blinded by the hopey-changey light before the election in 2008, now the scales are falling from their eyes.
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