Burns Out/Rehberg In? (potentially vulnerable GOP Senator may retire)

Ankle Biting Pundits ^ | January 9, 2006 | H-Bomb

[AuH2ORepublican]

Burns Out/Rehberg In?

Considering the fact that Sen. Conrad Burns from Montana was below 50% in the pre-Abramoff "I'm guilty" ballot question, word is now spreading like wildfire inside Washington, DC that Burns will soon announce his retirement.

A source on Capitol Hill tells me that the National Republican Senatorial Committee is polling feverishly to see if the Senate seat is salvagable should Burns seek re-election. The prognosis, I am told, is not good.

Enter Congressman Denny Rehberg, Montana's wildly popular At-Large member of Congress. Rehberg briefly flirted with the idea of running against Max Baucus in 2002, but decided against it at the last minute (Baucus easily won re-election.)

Insiders tell me that Rehberg would be a strong candidate for an open seat and is beginning to be recruited heavily by members of the Upper Chamber and even the White House.

Stay tuned ...

[fieldmarshaldj]

You have a lot more faith in those voters than I would. I'd go so far as to say if Perot had pulled out for a second and final time, he would've endorsed Clinton. It's hard to overstate the absolute hatred Perot had for Bush, Sr.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"for Bush to have won, he would have had to carry both IA and CT."

I was thinking, even in '92, Iowa seemed to have a particular distaste for Bush, Sr. He lost rather handily to Dukakis there in '88 (partly due to reaction against the Administration on the "farm belt depression", IIRC), and I see no way for him to have won the state over Clinton. It took 20 years for Iowa to finally come back to the GOP column after 1984, and not by a particularly impressive margin.

[zbigreddogz]

There's no way Raicoit would run for House. If he wants back in, it's him that should succeed Burns and Rehberg should stay where he is and run against Baucus in 2008.

But either way is fine for me. I think one or the other should probably signal primary challenge at this point. It would make sure Burns will retire, because either would probably win if he ran.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Now, now, don't get externalities into my hypothetical. : )

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Now, now, don't get externalities into my hypothetical. : )"

Ew, that sounds kinda gay. =8-0

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I was thinking, even in '92, Iowa seemed to have a particular distaste for Bush, Sr."

---

Bush made a bit of a comeback in Iowa in 1992 due to higher crop prices---same thing happened in Wisconsin. I think a Perot-less election would have gone down to the wire in Iowa that year, with the winner winning the presidency.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Of course, must also remember that if Bush, Sr. had won a 2nd term, we would not have likely won Congress in '94. It usually takes the shock of a disastrous 'Rat administration to scare the straights into supporting the GOP (a la 1966, 1980, 1994).

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Of course, must also remember that if Bush, Sr. had won a 2nd term, we would not have likely won Congress in '94."

---

You may be right, especially since one of the reasons the GOP swept in 1994 was because Perot voters of 1992 flocked to the GOP; had Perot stayed out of the race after he got out the first time, many of those new voters wouldn't have voted at all in 1992 and probably not in 1994 either.

[Clintonfatigued]

I doubt that Secretary of State Brad Johnson would run for Congress if Rehberg runs for the Senate. He's only held his current office for a year, and won it by only 51% to 49%.

I think that state Public Service Commissioner Brad Molnar would be a good candidate.

[Clintonfatigued]

I'm also hopeful that Conrad Burns decides to return to Montana and Denny Rehberg replaces him.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Politically, Rehberg would be a dam site better than Burns. At least Rehberg makes no bones about the fact he's conservative.

[BigSkyFreeper]

I agree that Burns is highly vulnerable, but isn't he known for his personal stubbornness?

He does have the tenacity to fight, but the fact that he's mulling retirement, to me suggests he knows he's vulnerable.

[Clintonfatigued]

ping

[Theodore R.]

I believe that IA also went for Dukakis, didn't it?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I believe that IA also went for Dukakis, didn't it?"

---

Yes, as did Wisconsin. But I didn't include them on the list because it wasn't totally due to union Democrats, as was proven in 2000 and 2004 when Gore and Kerry each got between 48%-50% in each state; a surprisingly high number of Iowans and Wisconsinites are social liberals, although both states are still for the most part pro-life.

[AuH2ORepublican]

BTW, that picture of Loni Anderson you posted is still being replaced by a box with a little red x. The least they could have done is place two huge red xs . . .

[fieldmarshaldj]

Hehehe...

[AuH2ORepublican]

DJ, this is no laughing matter. You must be breaking some sort of rule by mentioning Jennifer Marlowe, claiming to post a picture of her, being told that the picture didn't work, and then chuckling instead of posting a picture that works. Don't make me sic the Mods at you. : )

[fieldmarshaldj]

OK, OK... Here she is...

[AuH2ORepublican]

That's more like it. Pretty good picture of Bailey, too.