[fieldmarshaldj]

"for Bush to have won, he would have had to carry both IA and CT."

I was thinking, even in '92, Iowa seemed to have a particular distaste for Bush, Sr. He lost rather handily to Dukakis there in '88 (partly due to reaction against the Administration on the "farm belt depression", IIRC), and I see no way for him to have won the state over Clinton. It took 20 years for Iowa to finally come back to the GOP column after 1984, and not by a particularly impressive margin.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I was thinking, even in '92, Iowa seemed to have a particular distaste for Bush, Sr."

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Bush made a bit of a comeback in Iowa in 1992 due to higher crop prices---same thing happened in Wisconsin. I think a Perot-less election would have gone down to the wire in Iowa that year, with the winner winning the presidency.