Sources: Casey Announcement on Senate Race Imminent; Will Challenge Santorum

PoliticsPA.com ^ | March 2, 2005 | PoliticsPA

[AuH2ORepublican]

Sources: Casey Announcement on Senate Race Imminent; Will Challenge Santorum

PoliticsPA is the first to report that State Treasurer Bobby Casey Jr. has decided to challenge Senator Rick Santorum. Casey is long considered the most formidable challenger to our junior Senator, and promises to be among the most highly-watched and costly races of the 2006 campaign cycle. Later this week, the Democratic leaders from the United States Senate will be in Philadelphia.

Sources also tell PoliticsPA that former Treasurer Barbara Hafer is also likely run. EMILY's List, the pro-choice women's PAC has pledged to support Hafer over Casey in the Democratic Primary.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Hopefully, the pro-abortion Democrat Barbara Hafer (a former RINO) will defeat pro-life Democrat Bob Casey in the RAT primary (or at least weaken him insurmountably) just like Fast Eddie Rendell did in 2002. Casey would be Santorum's toughest opponent, save for perhaps Congressman Holden and Governor Rendell himself. If I had to guess right now, I think Santorum would end up beating Casey by 51%-48% but would beat Hafer more comfortably, by around 54%-45%.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Pennsylvania 2006 Senate Race Ping

It looks like Bob Casey vs. Barbara Hafer in the Democrat primary, with the winner taking on Senator Rick Santorum.

[ken5050]

Are there any numbers on recent statewide Dem primaries..i.e....what % of enrolled dems come out?

[ex-snook]

I imagine a lot of Republicans will crossover and vote for Hafer. Sort of like Specter asked Democrats to crossover to vote for him rather than Toomey.

Casey was the largest vote getter in the last election and that includes Kerry and Specter. A pro-life Democrat would be very competitive since there are a lot pro-lifers who feel that Santorum jumped the shark when he came out for Specter.

[cynicom]

Casey can beat Santorum. Perhaps this will be a lesson for republicans that stand for nothing when they drop their principles.

[ken5050]

PA has a crossover primary?

[ex-snook]

"PA has a crossover primary?"

No. They change registration back and forth.

[ken5050]

Thanks...

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Are there any numbers on recent statewide Dem primaries..i.e....what % of enrolled dems come out?"

---

As of November of 2004, there were close to 4 million registered Democrats (and close to 3.4 million registered Republicans) in PA. See:
http://www.dos.state.pa.us/bcel/cwp/view.asp?a=1099&Q=444853&PM=1

In the 2002 Democrat gubernatorial primary between Bob Casey and Ed Rendell, a bit under 1.25 million Democrats voted (primary turnout in 2004 was much lower, since Kerry had already clinched the nomination and the Democrat Senate primary was not contested). Since there were around 3.76 million registered Democrats in May of 2002, Democrat primary turnout was 33%.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"They change registration back and forth."

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Exactly. That's what the "Rendellicans" (mostly pro-abortion RINOs from the Philly suburbs) did in 2002. Casey tried to get pro-life Republicans to vote for him, but couldn't convince that many of them to switch even if it was only for a day (partly because many of them thought that Rendell would be easier to beat in the general election).

[NeoCaveman]

Some Lefty already has a http://www.stopcasey.blogspot.com/ anti-Casey website up.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Some Lefty already has a http://www.stopcasey.blogspot.com/ anti-Casey website up."

---

That's great news, actually, since even if Casey wins the primary many of the pro-aborts may opt to vote for the Green Party candidate or something. Given the fact that Governor Rendell is running for reelection in 2006, I don't think we will see a massive boycott from pro-aborts, but their hatred for Casey could still work to our advantage.

[infidel29]

Joe Hoeffel still lurks and don't rule out Chris Heinz either. Santorum needs to get busy doing anything that'll get him some good pub.

[zbigreddogz]

It's gonna be a barn burner.

I really, really hope the unappeasables don't screw this one up. If the base stays behind Santorum, he'll win.

[floridavoter2]

Santorum still has a good chance at re-election. Remember that Planned Parenthood and NARAL have an absolute stranglehold on the Democratic Party and will do whatever they can to stop Casey from being nominated.

[ken5050]

Thanks for the info..much appreciated..

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

The pro-abort groups have been scared that the national Democratic Party is going to moderate its position on abortion, so I imagine they'll hit Casey hard and either beat him or wound him badly for the general. I believe part of the reason Casey lost the primary to Rendell was also because he was a lousy campaigner (the same cannot be said of Santorum).

We should hit Casey on the issue of judicial nominations. His pro-life views won't matter anything if he votes to block the president's judicial nominations. It's the silver bullet, I say.

[Paleo Conservative]

PA has a crossover primary?

No. They change registration back and forth.

Sounds more like a cross-dressing primary.

[HostileTerritory]

It's rather hard for party-switchers like Hafer to win primaries.

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

It still astounds me that Rendell was able to get elected in a state like Pennsylvania, especially with his stances on the 2nd Amendment and life issues.

It just serves as an illustration of how radicalized the modern Democratic Party has become, I suppose.

-good times, G.J.P. (Jr.)